The 2024-25 NBA season is fast approaching, so in conjunction with my latest points and category rankings dropping, let’s dig into my position-by-position tiers, starting with the point guards.
NOTE: Only some players will have analysis when listed in the tiers below. Players with multi-position eligibility will only appear in the positional tier where they played the most minutes last season or are projected to play this season.
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There are different flavors of point guards to target — the high points + assists guys in the first three rounds and ones who are efficient, rebound well and/or generate more stocks. With the league so guard-centric, it pays to prioritize grabbing a high-usage point guard early because assists become scarce after Tier 4. Of course, you can opt to punt assists and target the score-first type guards who can help you lean into other categories of interest.
Tier 1: The elites
1. Luka Dončić, Dallas Mavericks
2. Shai-Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
These two MVP candidates are a head above other PGs. Luka is a 30-point triple-double threat every night and made strides in knocking down free throws and upping his steal rate last year. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a flawless fantasy PG because he checks every box for stat production. He’s one of the best blocking guards and is as efficient as they come. Both should be top-five picks in every format.
Tier 2: 20 & 10 potential
1. Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana Pacers
2. Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks
3. James Harden, Los Angeles Clippers
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Haliburton is the odds-on favorite to lead the league in assists, and his efficiency, defense and scoring make him near elite status. The only things capping his ceiling are injuries and, occasionally, Pascal Siakam.
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Trae Young was the only player to average at least 25 points and 10 assists last season. With Dejounte Murray gone and Atlanta stuck in neutral, Young will put up big numbers in his seventh season.
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James Harden is one of the biggest risers of the offseason. Paul George‘s departure and Kawhi Leonard‘s health put Harden in a position to thrive in fantasy. Harden should revert to a far more aggressive offensive approach. Age aside, he’s a late-first, early second-round pick.
Tier 3: All-Star caliber anchors
1. Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
2. LaMelo Ball, Charlotte Hornets
3. Damian Lillard, Milwaukee Bucks
4. Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
5. De’Aaron Fox, Sacramento Kings
6. Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers
7. Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons
8. Fred VanVleet, Houston Rockets
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Stephen Curry has a safe floor at 26-5-5 and remains a category winner in 3s and free-throw percentage.
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LaMelo Ball carries considerable injury risk, but he has one of the highest ceilings in this tier. He finally agreed to wear ankle braces, so getting a healthy LaMelo in the mid-to-late second could be good value.
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Lillard’s first season with the Bucks didn’t go well, and his ADP sits near the tail end of the second round. He’s finished as a top-20 player in three of his last four seasons, averaging at least 24/4/7 over that span. Similar to Curry, he can anchor 3s and FT%. Some improved efficiency from the field will bring him right back to his top-20 expectations.
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Don’t be concerned about Brunson’s role or usage dip; he’s the alpha of a championship contender. His heavy minutes and production make him a top-30 player.
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Tyrese Maxey will likely fall to the third round, and that’s perfect. Adding Paul George should help his efficiency and he could flirt with being the next 50/40/90 guy.
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Breakout alert for Cade Cunningham. He’s never finished in the top 80 on a per-game basis, but with a re-tooled roster and more competent coaching staff, Cunningham will have his best season. The top-50 season is coming!
Tier 4: PGs with something to prove
1. Dejounte Murray, New Orleans Pelicans
2. Ja Morant, Memphis Grizzlies
3. Immanuel Quickley, Toronto Raptors
4. Jamal Murray, Denver Nuggets
5. Darius Garland, Cleveland Cavaliers
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Dejounte Murray is in the driver’s seat of a pretty stacked NO lineup. I’ve been consistent with my views of him, and he offers a safe floor counting stats-wise.
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Few have more to prove this season than Ja Morant and I’d roll the dice on him by the fourth round. He’s an excellent stat stuffer for points leagues but fits well with punt-turnover or punt-free-throw builds in category formats.
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Another breakout candidate is Immanuel Quickley. In 25 games with Scottie Barnes in the lineup, he averaged 17/4/6 with 41/42/82 shooting splits. He’s locked in for a career year as the full-time starter in a fantasy-friendly coaching scheme.
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I’d draft Jamal Murray if he falls, but I’m concerned about his health. He looked terrible in the NBA Playoffs and the Paris Olympics, so hopefully, he’ll be 100% by the start of the season.
Tier 5: Slept on PGs
1. D’Angelo Russell, Los Angeles Lakers
2. Jrue Holiday, Boston Celtics
3. Jalen Suggs, Orlando Magic
4. Coby White, Chicago Bulls
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D’Lo has been a top 60 player in three straight seasons, and his ADP is still in the late 70s. He’s a value.
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Jalen Suggs made strides in his third NBA season, raising his 3-point percentage to 39.7% and capturing All-Defensive second-team honors. Markelle Fultz is gone, so he steps into the PG duties for an ascending Magic squad. He’s on track to post a career-high in assists, and when factoring in the 3s and stock potential, he’s undervalued.
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I have Coby White slotted as the Bulls’ starting PG, but we’ll see what Billy Donovan has in store come training camp. White enjoyed a breakout campaign last year and is one of the few players Chicago plans to build around for the future. He’s a solid target if you’re punting stocks or FG%.
Tier 6: PGs with ADPs near 100
1. Terry Rozier, Miami Heat
2. Chris Paul, San Antonio Spurs
3. Marcus Smart, Memphis Grizzlies
4. Tyus Jones, Phoenix Suns
5. Keyonte George, Utah Jazz
6. Mike Conley, Minnesota Timberwolves
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Chris Paul and Wemby? I’m with it. I think we’ll see Paul’s steals increase to 1.5 per game with 30 minutes and you know what he provides from an assist perspective. Low-end double-double appeal around pick 100.
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It’s evident that Keyonte George has the highest upside among players going around pick 100. His inefficiencies hurt his value, but going into Year 2, I expect some growth as he starts from day one.
Tier 7: Mix of the old and new PGs
1. Russell Westbrook III, Denver Nuggets
2. Dyson Daniels, Atlanta Hawks
3. Malcolm Brogdon, Washington Wizards
4. Dennis Schroder, Brooklyn Nets
5. Ben Simmons, Brooklyn Nets
6. Scoot Henderson, Portland Trail Blazers
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I kind of like Russ in Denver. They need a two-guard, and Nikola Jokić‘s request for his services means something. Will he be efficient? No, but he’s fine for points leagues and serviceable in category leagues for the counting stats or if you’re punting efficiency categories or 3s.
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Early depth charts have Dyson Daniels backing up Trae Young at point guard, so while I like him as a sleeper, his usage and role are undefined. There isn’t much guard depth, so I’m penciling him in as a late-rounder who can rebound well for a guard, get dimes and steals. His shot looked good in Paris, but I’m not expecting a stark increase in efficiency.
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I won’t be drafting Ben Simmons, and best of luck to anyone who does. He’ll either be a heist at his ADP or a complete dud.
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I’m probably too low on Scoot, considering what he can do from a scoring and assist perspective, but the shooting splits will be tough to stomach. He also doesn’t offer much for stocks and 3s. I’m good with moving him up a couple of tiers for points leagues, but he’s still more of a late-round guy.
Tier 8: Valued backup PGs
1. Payton Pritchard, Boston Celtics
2. Miles McBride, New York Knicks
3. De’Anthony Melton, Golden State Warriors
4. Delon Wright, Milwaukee Bucks
5. T.J. McConnell, Indiana Pacers
6. Stephon Castle, San Antonio Spurs
7. Kevin Porter Jr., Los Angeles Clippers
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Payton Pritchard presumably has the sixth-man role locked up until Kristaps Porziņģis returns. He’s averaged over 11/4/4 when playing 20-29 minutes throughout his career, so there’s late-round appeal here. Pritchard is a guy who is moving up my draft boards.
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Deuce McBride provides solid Brunson insurance. The four-year pro had stretches late in the 2023-24 season where he went off for fantasy managers. He averaged 17/3/4 as a starter last year.
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Spurs rookie Stephon Castle is in an ideal position to learn from the Point God, and if CP3 goes down, Castle is next up. With great size (6-foot-6) for the PG position and exceptional defensive instincts, he’ll be fantasy-relevant at points throughout the season.