Drafting a fantasy team is one of my favorite hobbies on the planet, and it’s fun to see how every draft plays out. Each one is different, and adapting to those changes is what turns a good fantasy manager into a great one. That’s why we will evaluate all 12 picks in the first round and give recommendations for each slot.
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With that said, let’s get started with the pick everyone is talking about!
1st Overall Pick: Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets
Nikola Jokić has been the consensus first-overall pick for the last several years, but this is the first time he has had significant competition. Victor Wembanyama had a historic season in his rookie campaign, and many fantasy managers are taking him ahead of Jokić. The reason for that is because of Wembanyama’s game-changing statistics, as he averaged 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 3.6 blocks, 1.2 steals and 1.8 3s on solid all-around percentages last year. It’s scary that’s likely the worst version of Wembanyama we’ll see because he lapped the field in blocks and is one of the few guys who’s a contributor in every category.
Jokić has won MVP three times in the last four years and is still the safest option out there, averaging 25.4 points, 12.1 rebounds, 9.4 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.0 3s on elite percentages over the last two years. You can’t go wrong picking either of these stars.
2nd Overall Pick: Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
This is the simplest pick in the draft, so we’ll keep this short. Whoever is available between Nikola Jokić and Victor Wembanyama, take that player at No. 2. It’s the best possible spot to draft since those two are a coin-flip, and you get to pick in front of the first overall pick in the second round.
3rd Overall Pick: Luka Dončić, Dallas Mavericks
After those two superstars are gone, it looks like two more superstars will occupy the third and fourth picks. Almost every draft out there will be either Luka Dončić or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at third overall. Dončić has the better statistics on the surface, but Gilgeous-Alexander’s all-around game had him as the top player in nine-category leagues last season.
It’s a matter of preference between these two since you can either choose to stuff the stat sheet with Dončić or go for an all-around build with Gilgeous-Alexander. In any case, either is a solid option.
4th Overall Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
This is the second-best place to pick in the draft since you will get either Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Luka Dončić. Don’t overthink it, pick whatever star is left over.
5th Overall Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
After those first four picks, this is where things get interesting. Jokić, Wembanyama, Dončić and Gilgeous-Alexander will go in the top four in nearly every draft, but the fifth pick is all over the map. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been going fifth the most, but some fantasy managers like Tyrese Haliburton, Jayson Tatum or Joel Embiid in this spot. Antetokounmpo is a Dončić-type player who’s the safest bet to stuff the stat sheet, while Haliburton will be one of the league leaders in assists. Tatum is the sort of player who will do a little bit of everything and is probably the safest option since he rarely misses games. Embiid has the highest upside of this group since he took home the MVP award two years ago, but his injury risk is massive.
6th Overall Pick: Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers
We just took Giannis Antetokounmpo with the fifth pick, so we will go with Joel Embiid at sixth overall. Embiid set a career-high mark with 34.7 points per game last season while also averaging 11.0 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 1.7 blocks and 1.2 steals. That assist total was also a career-high mark, and it’s clear the 76ers will utilize him in that type of playmaking role as his career rolls on. The injury risk gives fantasy managers some pause, as Embiid played just 39 games last year and hasn’t appeared in more than 68 regular-season games at any point in his career.
7th Overall Pick: Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana Pacers
We’re down to Tyrese Haliburton and Jayson Tatum for the seventh pick, and we will go with Haliburton. He has averaged double-digit assists per game in back-to-back seasons and is filling the stat sheet for the fastest-paced team in the NBA. He averaged 20.4 points, 10.7 assists, 3.8 rebounds, 1.4 steals, 0.6 blocks and 2.8 3s on 48.3% shooting from the field and 86.2% from the free-throw line over his first two full seasons with Indiana.
Assists are the most difficult statistic to find on the waiver wire, so especially in category formats, getting the league leader with this type of stat-stuffing potential is quite the boost in the second half of the first round.
8th Overall Pick: Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics
We were considering four players at the fifth overall pick, and that will leave Jayson Tatum as the final option in that tier. That means one of these players will fall to you, and whoever it is, you’ve stumbled into a great spot since you’re going to pick near the top of the second round as well.
9th Overall Pick: Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers
We just finished off a tier, and this is where things get complicated. Fantasy managers are all over the board for these final four picks, with Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant, Trae Young, Stephen Curry, Anthony Edwards, Domantas Sabonis and James Harden all being candidates in this range. We’re going to go with Davis since he’s been a top-three player in the past and is finally staying on the court.
A rash of injuries is the only thing that’s held Davis back throughout his career, but the big man missed just six games last season and appeared in 45 of the Lakers’ final 48 games during the 2022-23 campaign. Only a few players in the league can say that, and Davis also provides elite numbers across the board and game-changing defensive statistics.
10th Overall Pick: Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
We just listed a handful of players who can go at the end of the round, but it’s challenging to let Stephen Curry fall any further than this. There aren’t many players who can guarantee you a win in a category, but that’s what Curry has done with 3-pointers. The sharpshooter has five of the top six spots in 3-pointers made in NBA history, and he dropped 357 3s last season. That’s hard to fathom, because Luka Dončić was in second with nearly 100 fewer 3s.
That pairs beautifully with his 28.3 points, 5.9 assists, 5.3 rebounds and 1.0 steals over the last four seasons. He also led the league with a 91.9% free-throw percentage in that span and is one of the only guys who will lead the league in multiple categories. He’s a strong option in both points and category leagues.
11th Overall Pick: Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks
There are plenty of options to select from for this pick, but Trae Young is the best bet. He was among the top 10 fantasy options before Dejounte Murray joined Atlanta, and he should approach that range after Murray was traded to New Orleans.
That should boost Young’s usage and shot attempts, which is beneficial since he averaged 25.7 points, 10.8 assists, 2.8 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 3.2 3s in a “down” 2022-23 season. He’s one of the only players who will rival Haliburton to lead the league in assists, and he could do it while finishing in the top five in scoring and 3-pointers made.
12th Overall Pick: James Harden, Los Angeles Clippers
Most fantasy managers go with Kevin Durant or Anthony Edwards in this spot, but we will take a pivot. I’m bullish on James Harden having a bounce-back season since he’s one of the only pieces remaining for the Clippers. They got rid of Paul George during the offseason, and Kawhi Leonard is already dealing with a knee issue as the regular season approaches.
That should force Harden into the Houston-type role that made him a top fantasy option, as he averaged 29.7 points, 7.7 assists, 6.0 rebounds, 1.8 steals, 0.6 blocks and 3.3 3s over his eight seasons with the Rockets. He was also the best free-throw booster in the league, shooting 86.2% on the highest volume in the NBA. We don’t expect a return like that, but even 85% of those stats would make him a value at the end of the first round.
Other Players to Consider: Anthony Edwards, Kevin Durant, Domantas Sabonis, LeBron James and Devin Booker