It’s time to get excited. The critical draft week of the summer is here, and we’ll have real NFL games in a week. It’s almost go time.
With that in mind, time to revisit the NFL power rankings from a fantasy tilt. This is an unscientific but nuanced measurement of how fantasy-useful each offense is.
Even if the rankings aren’t your jam, you’ll want to keep reading as I offer quick notes about various players and situations. It’s a good resource to read quickly before you step into that draft you’re looking to crush.
We will revisit these ranks quarterly during the year.
Let’s jump in.
They have a 4.5-win total for the season and that sounds about right. The Patriots didn’t give Drake Maye the starting job despite a summer that merited it; given the mess of this situation, it makes sense to delay Maye’s onboarding.
Dave Canales is handy, part Winston Wolf and part Spicoli’s Dad. He can fix it, or at least make things better. You have my permission to draft Diontae Johnson and one of the running backs; Bryce Young might never be great, but he’ll be better.
Gardner Minshew completed just 48.5% of his throws in the preseason, despite facing second-string defenses with vanilla looks; look out below. Davante Adams is HOF-bound but this QB room might be something he can’t offset. I’ve moved away from Zamir White, too.
Daniel Jones has never played with an 800-yard receiver, but Malik Nabers is going to smash that. Devin Singletary is a good target for a boring RB3 fill; he has history with Brian Daboll.
After years of run-run-run, they want to be pass-pass-pass this season. At least things should be more interesting. Will Levis isn’t afraid to let it rip, and it’s a decent crew of pass catchers.
The new coaching infrastructure wants to run the ball into the ground, and given the look of the wide receiver room, that’s a wise call. I’ve mostly avoided this team at the draft table.
Bo Nix is older than the average rookie, but that’s likely a feature, not a bug. Sean Payton got his guy. Courtland Sutton has been a value all summer.
Najee Harris didn’t get extended but he might be this year’s Rachaad White, a volume monster who offsets ordinary efficiency. A mediocre quarterback room and the presence of OC Arthur Smith might submarine George Pickens. If Justin Fields eventually plays, he’ll run his way into fantasy relevance.
I’m excited for Jayden Daniels and this could be the best offense Terry McLaurin has ever played in. Kliff Kingsbury likely was over his skis as a head coach, but I don’t mind him as a coordinator.
Although I have a fair amount of Amari Cooper and Jerome Ford shares, I am concerned that Deshaun Watson‘s mojo might be shot for good. Once the cheese goes bad, it so rarely goes good again. Nick Chubb‘s gruesome knee injury (and remember, he also had major knee problems in college) makes him a poor fantasy bet for 2024. It pains me to write that, but we need to be pragmatic.
I love Chris Olave and I like Rashid Shaheed, but Derek Carr mitigates upside. Alvin Kamara is an easy fade for me, stepping into his age-29 season with plenty of red flags. Taysom Hill is probably going to be a thing (and he’s tight-end eligible in Yahoo).
Dave Canales was the architect of their surprising 2023 breakout; now Canales is gone. I’m expecting Baker Mayfield to slide backward, and I wouldn’t draft Rachaad White on a bet.
I’d follow Kevin O’Connell into a burning building (look what he did with backup quarterbacks last year), but Sam Darnold is one of his biggest challenges to date.
There’s a lot of carnival potential here, a fun offense tied to a lousy defense. Kyler Murray needs to show he can produce from the pocket or constantly find throwing lanes outside of it.
I’m excited to see what OC Ryan Grubb can do after a monster season at Washington. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the classic post-hype sleeper, an upside bargain all summer. I’ve consistently passed on DK Metcalf because I want a shot at JSN.
Caleb Williams always looks poised, and he has the arm talent to make every throw. The Bears are giving him the cushiest seat ever presented to a No. 1 overall pick.
Here’s an offense I’m warming up to. Brian Thomas Jr. looks like the perfect piece for the passing game, Trevor Lawrence is being drafted at his floor, and Evan Engram just had the quietest 114-catch season you ever did see. Travis Etienne makes sense at his current slot, too.
I get that Anthony Richardson could go to the moon, but some drafters are targeting him like it’s already happened. I’ll take Jayden Daniels a few rounds later, or several other QBs much later. The deep 2024 quarterback pool is like the public transit system in New York City: if you miss one train, another one is coming in five minutes.
Matt LaFleur is a wizard without the full reputation yet, and I believe in the Jordan Love breakout we saw in the second half of 2023. The wide receiver room is a nebulous mess, but if you solve it, that’s where the profit is.
The backfield is cloudy and maybe there’s not a major winner there, but at least CeeDee Lamb is signed, sealed, delivered. Jake Ferguson‘s touchdown regression tour started in the playoffs; more is coming.
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If Bijan Robinson isn’t next summer’s cover darling, Breece Hall might be. Garrett Wilson only needs adequate quarterback play to become a superstar, and Aaron Rodgers is usually focused on his primary wideouts. The Jets defense is very good on all three levels, which might ding the offense slightly — shootouts won’t be required much.
I found this team difficult to rank when summer started and I’m still there today. Ja’Marr Chase isn’t happy. Joe Burrow‘s had trouble staying healthy. Tee Higgins enters his prove-it walk year. Social media has argued about Chase Brown (is he a hero? is he a zero?) for two months.
Go get the Cincinnati D/ST for Week 1; they’re a 9.5-point favorite, hosting the Patriots.
I don’t know who OC Zac Robinson is going to be, but surely he can’t be as bad as Arthur Smith was. Kirk Cousins is just what this team needs, a plus quarterback. Bijan Robinson could be on all the magazine covers next year, and I definitely want exposure to Drake London and Kyle Pitts, too. The schedule is an absolute cookie, the easiest in the league (I only care about outliers when considering SOS data). Let’s do this.
Dalton Kincaid is the likely yardage leader in the passing game, but I also like the sneaky value Khalil Shakir offers. You probably heard this already: he’s the only wideout on the roster who’s caught a game-day pass from Josh Allen.
Sean McVay usually has one of the narrowest usage trees in the league, but you probably don’t spend a third-round pick on Blake Corum without envisioning an immediate role for him. I honestly don’t know what to do with Kyren Williams.
As great as Tyreek Hill is, the price on Jaylen Waddle has my attention. The same general theme holds in Philly — A.J. Brown is the alpha, but value slides me to DeVonta Smith.
The Chiefs soft-pedaled Travis Kelce during the regular season last year, then turned him loose in the playoffs. Given the thinness of the AFC West, I can’t see why the team wouldn’t run that strategy back for Kelce’s age-35 season. Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice came on late in 2023 and are definitely proactive picks for me this summer.
Stefon Diggs is spotting about six years to his younger receiver teammates. I’ll focus on Nico Collins and Tank Dell and fade Diggs, thanks.
The Baltimore offensive line is a work in progress, but Lamar Jackson‘s mobility mitigates part of that problem. If Gus Edwards scored 13 times last year, what’s the ceiling for Derrick Henry? Zay Flowers lost his composure at the end of the playoffs, but his downfield agility is a thing of beauty.
They kept every fun piece that mattered. I’d like to see more road scoring, but the Lions at home are the ultimate cheat code. You’ll want shares of this offense, obviously. There’s plenty to choose from.
Jalen Hurts doesn’t throw to his running backs much. Saquon Barkley *checks notes* plays running back. While I concede the second round of fantasy drafts is more dicey than usual this year, I’ve yet to consider Barkley.
The Brandon Aiyuk drama is finally over, and Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel will carry similar ADPs for the rest of draft season. But Samuel probably holds a little more touchdown equity and he likely has a more consistent target baseline — he’s my preference here.