Team defenses are already a tricky position to predict from one season to the next. It’s not like gauging the value of a single player. There are 11 moving pieces on every defense. Those pieces change. Coordinators change. Schemes change.
Surprises at the position are nothing new. But in 2024 the surprise-meter has launched into overdrive – largely because the first three weeks of the season have just been cuckoo.
The NFL’s hottest team (and the top-scoring fantasy defense three weeks in) is the Minnesota Vikings – the same Vikings team that finished the 2023 campaign 24th against the pass and was 16th in fantasy points. The impact that coordinator Brian Flores has had on the Vikings defense has been nothing short of remarkable, especially when you take into account that the team lost its best linebacker and top edge-rusher in free agency.
The big names defensively – the teams drafted early? The San Francisco 49ers are 16th in fantasy points at the position in fantasy points after three weeks. The Dallas Cowboys are one spot behind them. The Baltimore Ravens are 19th.
Ay least the Washington Commanders are dead last. Something makes sense. Want to know why I have long advocated streaming team defenses based on matchups?
This. This is why. It’s still early, and some of those higher-end defenses may well rebound.
But team defenses are dart-throws. Just trying to gauge their value for a week is difficult enough.
Doing it for an entire season is a fool’s errand as often as not.
Gives you a ton of confidence about the rest of this column, huh?
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THE NO-DOUBTERS
San Francisco 49ers (vs. New England Patriots)
Wait, what? Did this writer not just bemoan the fact that the 49ers have underperformed this season relative to expectations? There’s no denying they have – including a lackluster performance last week in what appeared to be a tasty matchup with an injury-ravaged Los Angeles Rams team. But at 1-2, the 49ers are up against it after the Seahawks started the season 2-0, and after showing some signs of life in a Week 1 win over the Cincinnati Bengals the New England Patriots offense has looked about like we expected this year – which is to say terrible.
Minnesota Vikings (at Green Bay Packers)
At this point, there’s no denying it – the Vikings have earned this spot. Despite playing a pair of 2023 playoff teams in the 49ers and Texans, the Vikings are second in the league in scoring defense, they rank third in takeaways and have amassed more sacks (16) than any team in the National Football League. This week is admittedly another stiff test – the Packers are giving up the seventh-fewest fantasy points to defenses in spite of starting backup quarterback Malik Willis twice. But if it’s not broke, don’t fix it – the Vikings are a weekly start until they give us a reason not to.
Pittsburgh Steelers (at Indianapolis Colts)
The Steelers are riding high at 3-0 with a two-game lead in the AFC North, but while Justin Fields and the Pittsburgh offense have played a part in that hot start, the engine driving the Steelers is the team’s defense, which ranks first in the NFL in both total defense and scoring defense and sits tied for fourth in takeaways. This week edge-rusher T.J. Watt and the Steelers take on a Colts team with a young quarterback in Anthony Richardson who has been a turnover machine in the early-going this year – only the Tennessee Titans have given the ball away more three games in.
Chicago Bears (vs. Los Angeles Rams)
Three games into the 2024 campaign, the Bears are fantasy’s second-ranked defense. That is admittedly buoyed by a huge Week 1 where Chicago scored on both defense and special teams, but the fact remains it has been the Bears defense that has been keeping the team in games so far this year. The Los Angeles Rams surprised last week at home against the 49ers, but this is still a team that is short its top-two wide receivers and three starters on the offensive line. Sean McVay can only scheme around those injuries for so long.
New York Jets (vs. Denver Broncos)
Cherry-picking stats can get fantasy managers in trouble, but if you take out New York’s season-opening loss to the 49ers, the Jets rank third in fantasy points among defenses over the past two weeks. Edge-rusher Will McDonald IV has gone completely bananas the last two games, and the Jets sit seventh in the league in both total defense and scoring defense and fifth against the pass. Denver quarterback Bo Nix had the best start of his young career last week against Tampa Bay, but he’s still a rookie whose next touchdown pass will be his first.
Kansas City Chiefs (at Los Angeles Chargers)
At first glance, the Chiefs appear a good but not great fantasy defense – 12th in points for the season. The combined record of their opponents three weeks in is a dismal 2-7. But all three of those opponents (Baltimore, Cincinnati and Atlanta) were widely viewed as playoff contenders entering the season, and Steve Spagnuolo’s defense has had as much to do with the Chiefs’ 3-0 start as Patrick Mahomes. With Justin Herbert looking unlikely to play Sunday with a high-ankle sprain, the Chiefs get their best fantasy matchup of the season against the Taylor Heinicke-led Chargers. Kansas City will take advantage of it.
Dallas Cowboys (at New York Giants)
To be clear, the Cowboys have not played well defensively this season – Dallas has allowed 72 points the past two games (both losses) and the Cowboys are surrendering more yards per game on the ground than any team in the NFL. However, if ever there was a week for Dallas to get it together it’s Week 3 against the Giants. New York allowed a staggering 85 sacks last season, and while New York got win No. 1 in Cleveland last week they are still surrendering the fifth-most fantasy points to defenses. This is a “get right” spot for Dallas, even if it’s only temporary.
STREAMERS OF THE WORLD, UNITE!
Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Cleveland Browns)
Given that the Raiders just got 36 points dropped on them by the Andy Dalton-led Carolina Panthers, this might seem an odd recommendation. But this is a lot less about the Raiders than who they play. The Cleveland Browns are a dumpster fire offensively, with an injury-ravaged offensive line that allowed Deshaun Watson to be sacked eight times in last week’s loss to the Giants. Look for Maxx Crosby to feast against that line, and for the Vegas defense to rebound against a Browns team that is giving up the second-most fantasy points to defenses this season.
Miami Dolphins (vs. Tennessee Titans)
The Dolphins have hardly been lights-out defensively this season, although it’s hard to fault last week’s performance against the Seattle Seahawks too much given the offense’s inability to move the ball with third-string quarterback Tim Boyle under center. But this has a lot less to do with the Dolphins than the team they face at home in Week 4. No team has allowed more fantasy points to defenses or turned the ball over more in 2024 than the winless Titans. It just goes to show you – any person who puts mayonnaise in coffee on purpose cannot be trusted. At least he got an endorsement deal out of it.
Tennessee Titans (at Miami Dolphins)
Not many expected a Dolphins offense loaded with skill-position talent to be a matchup to target this year for opposing defenses, but it’s become clear that all the skill position talent in the world is of little use if your quarterback can’t get them the ball. Tua Tagovailoa may have sustained his concussion running the ball, but given how porous the Miami offensive line looked in allowing six sacks in Week 3, it was likely just a matter of time until Tagovailoa went down as the result of the sort of beating that Skylar Thompson took a week ago.
Cincinnati Bengals (at Carolina Panthers)
This is another call that will probably elicit a double-take or two – the Andy Dalton-led Panthers dropped three dozen on the Raiders Sunday, and the Cincy defense gave up even more than that in a Monday night loss to the Commanders that dropped the Bengals to 0-3 for the season. But the Panthers aren’t that good offensively and the Bengals aren’t that bad defensively. Carolina has also allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to defenses even after last week’s eruption against Las Vegas. The Bengals need a win in the worst way. They step up in Week 4 – at least for a week.
Los Angeles Rams (at Chicago Bears)
At first glance, the Rams don’t appear to have much to offer fantasy managers defensively – the Rams are dead last in total defense after three weeks and have posted the third-fewest fantasy points at the position. But the Bears have surrendered the fourth-most fantasy points to defenses this season, and while Bears quarterback Caleb Williams threw for over 350 yards last week, he also turned it over three times and was sacked four times. If you need a streamer start in deeper leagues, the Rams should be available.
CAVEAT EMPTOR, FOLKS
Buffalo Bills (at Baltimore Ravens)
The Ravens defense goes past “Caveat Emptor” this week – between their struggles and the way the Bills offense is humming, looking elsewhere is advisable. But despite a dominant performance in the win over Jacksonville, the Bills are a risky D/ST start Sunday night as well. The Ravens are 29th in fantasy points given up to defenses this season, and last week against the Cowboys Baltimore ran the ball a staggering 45 times while attempting just 15 passes. If they stay ground-heavy in Week 4, sacks and takeaways will be that much harder to come by.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on X at @IDPSharks