It’s been nearly two weeks since the last drop of rain fell in either Toronto or Montreal, a long-overdue dry spell that arrived after each city recorded its wettest summer ever observed.
The dry weather’s luck will soon run dry as a series of systems pushes into the eastern half of the country. Toronto is in for a storm risk on Saturday, with a chance of rain spreading into Metro Montreal by next week.
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A remarkable stretch of dry weather
This is the longest stretch of dry weather we’ve seen in both Toronto and Montreal in all of 2024.
Toronto has seen 11 consecutive days without precipitation as of September 20, besting the previous dry streak of 7 days set back in early February. It’s been even longer since it’s rained over in Montreal, where we’ve gone 16 days without rain as of Friday afternoon. Ottawa’s had rain more recently, but by Friday they’d gone a full week without measurable precipitation.
The lack of rain is even more noteworthy given that southern Ontario and southern Quebec both sloshed through exceptionally wet summers. This was the wettest summer ever recorded in both major cities, with Toronto more than doubling its average summer precipitation.
Saturday storm chances build over southern Ontario
The resilient ridge we’ve seen over Eastern Canada for the past couple of weeks is finally in the process of breaking down, allowing storm systems to once again begin moving through the region and bring opportunities for some rain.
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A weak disturbance moving across the Great Lakes late Friday into Saturday will bring a chance for rain and thunderstorms to southern Ontario.
Just about everyone throughout southwestern Ontario, the Greater Toronto Area, and up into cottage country will have to stay on guard for a risk for thunderstorms on Saturday. The strongest storms could pack heavy rain, small hail, and gusty winds.
While Saturday’s rain chances should mark the end of Toronto’s dry streak, the day won’t be a washout by any means. Just keep the umbrella handy as you go about your day.
Rain risk pushes into southern Quebec by next week
This energy moving across Ontario will fizzle out before it reaches southern Quebec, keeping things dry around Montreal for at least a few more days before our next chance for precipitation blows into the region.
An active storm track will likely guide several low-pressure systems from the U.S. through Ontario, beginning with systems tracking through northwestern Ontario and the northern Great Lakes on Monday.
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Precipitation will push toward the Greater Toronto Area late Monday into Tuesday, extending east toward Ottawa and Montreal by Tuesday and Wednesday.
It’s worth noting that weather models are still struggling with the precise track and timing of these systems and their associated precipitation. Continue checking back through the weekend as forecasters monitor the details of this active pattern ahead.
No matter how things shake out, though, next week will be far wetter than the past two weeks for both Ontario and Quebec.
Stay with The Weather Network for all the latest on your forecast across the region.