Arizona Cardinals
The record for yards without a touchdown for a tight end is 795
Steve Jordan set that record along with the “receptions without a touchdown” record of 68 in 1985. Trey McBride is chasing history with the second-most catches (61) and yards (685) sans a receiving touchdown, though he has a rushing touchdown via a recovered fumble.
Atlanta Falcons
Tyler Allgeier was held without a carry for the first time in his career
Allgeier had never been held below three carries heading into Week 11. The Broncos stomped the Falcons 38-6 before Atlanta’s Week 12 bye, but it wasn’t Allgeier’s first blowout. It was, however, his first time being shut out of the box score entirely, save for a loss of one yard on his lone reception. This doesn’t mean Allgeier’s days as a high-volume backup are over, but it’s more evidence that he isn’t on the fantasy radar in Atlanta losses. The Falcons are underdogs in each of their next two games.
Baltimore Ravens
Diontae Johnson has topped out at six routes in a single game with the Ravens
He has been stuck at a 17 percent route rate in each of his past two contests. Johnson has run two more routes than Tylan Wallance over the past three weeks and Nelson Agholor is miles ahead of him as the Ravens’ No. 3 receiver.
Buffalo Bills
James Cook set a season-low in carry share (35 percent)
That was versus the Chiefs before Buffalo’s Week 12 bye. Ray Davis’s role didn’t change, but third-stringer and occasional passing-downs back Ty Johson set a season-high in carry share at 19 percent. Cook also logged his lowest snap share (38 percent) of the year and his second-lowest route rate (also 38 percent).
Carolina Panthers
Chuba Hubbard posted his second-highest carry share (89 percent) and snap share (88 percent)
Jonathan Brooks was active for the first time this year but barely played a role in the backfield, even with Miles Sanders out because of an injury. Brooks saw two carries and was not targeted. Brooks isn’t even a thorn in Hubbard’s side yet and may not change the latter’s fantasy outlook at any point in 2024.
Chicago Bears
Keenan Allen is the WR8 in expected points since Week 8
In reality, Allen is the WR30 during that stretch. He has the fifth-worst expected to actual points differential since Week 8. Notably, Rome Odunze has the second-worst differential. Even after topping 100 yards, scoring, and adding a two-point conversion, DJ Moore is in the negative since the Bears’ bye.
Cincinnati Bengals
Ja’Marr Chase has out-targeted Tee Higgins in two of six games this year
Higgins has only been active for six games. Both wideouts saw exactly 13 targets in their Week 11 thriller versus the Chargers. Higgins has a seven-target lead in their six shared games and an even wider gap in air yards.
Chase has been great with and without Higgins available, but his production takes a hit when there is more competition for targets.
Cleveland Browns
Nick Chubb is last in the NFL in yards per carry (min. 70 attempts)
Chubb has averaged more than 3.3 yards per carry in one game this year. Chubb is just as bad in the advanced metrics, pushing for last in yards after contact per attempt (2.6). With his efficiency gone and no receiving production to speak of, Chubb is stuck in the RB3 ranks for now.
Dallas Cowboys
Rico Dowdle tied his career-high in touches (22)
The Cowboys pulled off the upset versus Washington, allowing them to establish their ground game for the first time in weeks. Dowdle saw 19-of-22 backfield carries and posted season-highs across the board for games with Ezekiel Elliott active. A date with Tommy DeVito—or possibly Drew Lock—has the Cooper Rush-led Cowboys as 3.5-point favorites this week, putting Dowdle in another great spot.
Denver Broncos
Marvin Mims leads all wide receivers in receiving yards from a running back alignment
This isn’t an awfully useful stat. I’m just happy for Marvin Mims. He is third in the league in yards per punt return and is a plus kick returner who also sees the occasional rush attempt. These were some of the early signals for Rashid Shaheed, so Mims may be worth a flyer in dynasty leagues.
Detroit Lions
Jameson Williams has a 21 percent target share since his two-game suspension
He had a 17 percent target share heading into his suspension that started in Week 8. Nearly all of his volume metrics are up post-suspension.
Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love hasn’t thrown for 300 yards since Week 4
That was his only 300-yard game of the year. Love has labored through various injuries this season and the Packers have not been willing to cut him loose outside of a frantic comeback effort versus the Vikings in Week 4. Since then, Green Bay has a -7% pass rate over expected.
Their pass rate on first and second down sits at 42.5 percent, the third-lowest mark in the league.
Houston Texans
The Texans have the third-highest neutral situation pass rate over the past two weeks
They have thrown on 66 percent of their plays on first and second down when either team had at least a 20 percent win probability. Those two games are Nico Collins’ first two back following a stint on injured reserve. The Texans want to pass with Collins healthy. Now it’s on Stroud to turn things around.
Indianapolis Colts
Anthony Richardson’s 77.9 PFF passing grade was the second-highest of his career
PFF charted 57.7 percent of his throws as accurate. That tied the career-high he set a week ago. The spreadsheets didn’t have the same takeaway as Richardson earned dreadful marks in EPA and CPOE. His upcoming matchup with a struggling Pats defense is a good spot for him to align the film grades with matching advanced metrics.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence has completed 48 percent of his deep attempts
Mac Jones has completed…zero percent of his deep shots. He is 0-of-7 with two interceptions. Brian Thomas Jr. somewhat survived Jones’ second start with five catches for 82 yards after reeling in just two balls for 12 yards in the prior game. Lawrence has a chance to return and immediately get Thomas back in the WR2 ranks this week.
Kansas City Chiefs
DeAndre Hopkins ran a route on 45 percent of the Chiefs’ dropbacks
That’s Hopkins’ lowest mark since his Kansas City debut in Week 8. Three receivers and two tight ends ran more routes than him. It is looking increasingly Joever for the veteran wideout.
Las Vegas Raiders
Ameer Abdullah played on 89 percent of the Raiders’ snaps
Supposed backup Dylan Laube didn’t see the field on offense and practice squad call-up Sincere McCormick handled five attempts while playing behind Abdullah. If Alexander Mattison and Zamir White are out again, Abdullah has RB2 potential.
Los Angeles Chargers
Gus Edwards ranks 51st in yards after contact per carry (2.3) and 54th in missed tackles forced per attempt (.07)
Those ranks are out of the 56 running backs with at least 50 rush attempts this year. Edwards’ explosive run rate of 4.5 percent is better than only three running backs. This is all to say that even if JK Dobbins misses time, Edwards is a touchdown-dependent RB3.
Los Angeles Rams
Puka Nacua has out-targeted Cooper Kupp 50-37 in their four full games
Nacua also has a 525-311 air yards lead over Kupp in those contests. Nacua’s 41 percent first-read target share dwarfs Kupp’s 29 percent rate. Kupp is still seeing plenty of looks, but Nacua is the Rams’ No. 1 receiver.
Miami Dolphins
Tyreek Hill has an 18 percent target share since the Dolphins’ Week 6 bye
He is averaging 11.3 fantasy points per game since the bye. Jonnu Smith has more targets during that stretch and De’Von Achane isn’t far behind Hill. Hill’s WR1 days are over and his WR2 status is in doubt as well.
Minnesota Vikings
Justin Jefferson doesn’t have a single 25-point game
Allen Lazard, Demarcus Robinson, and Marques Valdes-Scantling all have a 25-point game. Jauan Jennings has two! Jefferson has been a floor play all year and is coming off a 27-yard game. I’m sick.
New England Patriots
Rhamondre Stevenson has averaged 17.9 fantasy points in Patriots wins
Stevenson gains nearly 10 carries and 36 rushing yards in wins versus losses.
His fantasy production barely registers on the RB3 radar when the Pats lose and he’s a low-end RB1 in victories. Sadly, the Patriots aren’t favored in a single game to close out the year.
New Orleans Saints
Taysom Hill is the all-time leader in yards per carry (5.6) among non-quarterbacks (min. 400 carries)
Calling Hill a non-quarterback is not entirely fair as he has started a handful of games at QB throughout his career. Hill’s YPC is unaffected by removing his starts at quarterback, though that brings him below the arbitrary carry threshold of 400 attempts.
New York Giants
Malik Nabers has seen at least 30 percent of the Giants’ targets in every game since Week 1
Nabers is the entirety of the Giants’ passing game when he’s out there. He has seen at least 40 percent of the team’s air yards in all but two games. With Tommy DeVito’s status up in the air for Week 13, Drew Lock may be coming to save our Nabers “bags.”
New York Jets
Braelon Allen saw 11 percent of the Jets’ carries
That was the second-lowest carry share of the season for Allen, trailing only his NFL debut in Week 1. Breece Hall, in turn, touched the ball 23 times for 121 yards and two scores before the Jets’ Week 12 bye. Even as the offense sputters to the finish line, Hall is a volume-based RB1.
Philadelphia Eagles
Saquon Barkley is averaging .29 fantasy points over expected per carry
For some context, that is the seventh-best mark in FPOE per carry since 2000 (min. 200 carries). The six names above Barkley on the list illustrate how special his season has been: DeAngelo Williams, LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, Priest Holmes, Shaun Alexander, and Marshall Faulk.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Jaylen Warren set season-highs in snap share (57 percent) and target share (15 percent)
Game script was on Warren’s side for a larger-than-usual role with the Steelers losing to Cleveland in Week 12. His carry total remained modest at 11 but he earned a season-high in targets (five). Warren’s efficiency has also been trending in the right direction over the past month. Since Week 12, Warren is top-15 in yards after contact per carry (3.4), yards per carry (4.6), and yards per route run (1.5).
San Francisco 49ers
Brandon Allen averaged -.36 EPA per play
That was easily last in the league for Week 12. Allen made his first start in place of Brock Purdy, who is dealing with a shoulder injury.
He threw for 199 yards, a touchdown, and a pick on 29 attempts. George Kittle and Jauan Jennings dominated the targets with six and seven looks respectively. Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel saw four targets a piece.
Seattle Seahawks
Jaxon Smith-Njigba had an aDOT of 1.7 and a target share of 24 percent
That is peak frustrating usage for Smith-Njigba. He was still involved in the offense but primarily on check-downs and screens. Half of his six targets were screens in Week 12. DK Metcalf operated as the deep threat, earning only 20 percent of the targets but 63 percent of the Seahawks’ air yards.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bucky Irving set season-highs in snap share (55 percent) and route rate (59 percent) for a game with Rachaad White active
Irving bested both marks in his Week 6 spot-start without White available, but he set new high-water marks in most volume metrics last week when looking at games with the whole backfield healthy. His 20 percent target share was a new career-high with or without White. Irving finished the day with 12 carries for 87 yards and a touchdown plus six grabs for 64 yards.
Tennessee Titans
Two of Tony Pollard’s top-three career games by carries have come this year without Tyjae Spears
Pollard ran 24 times for 119 yards on Sunday sans Spears. He ran 28 times for 128 yards three weeks ago in a game Spears also missed. Pollard gets an RB1 workload whenever Spears is out and Will Levis is playing just good enough to allow him to get home on those touches.
Washington Commanders
Noah Brown has eight more targets than Terry McLaurin over the past four weeks
Brown is averaging 6.3 targets per game compared to 4.3 for McLaurin during that stretch. Two 100-yard games, three touchdowns, and one hail mary have buoyed McLaurin’s numbers over the past month, but his role has fallen precipitously. Brown has more air yards than McLaurin in those games and Zach Ertz is ahead of him in the targets department as well.