The latest polls suggest the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is historically close β the kind of contest that wonβt just come down to specific swing states but to specific counties within those states. Here are eight to watch on Tuesday night for clues about who will win.
Cobb County, Ga.: Youβve probably heard that βthe suburbsβ are the secret to Democratic success in recent elections. Cobb County is a great example of this phenomenon.
Located just northwest of Atlanta, Cobb was solidly Republican for decades β in part because it was majority white. But the county has diversified fast, and now its population is 30% Black, 15% Latino and about 6% Asian. Nearly 16% of residents are immigrants.
At the same time, Cobb County has remained affluent and highly educated; the Home Depot and the Weather Channel are headquartered there, and Coca-Cola, UPS and Delta are just a short drive away.
This has not been good news for Trump. In 2016, Hillary Clinton bucked Cobbβs historical GOP lean, winning there by just over 2 points; in 2020, Biden expanded that edge to more than 14 points. As a result, Biden became the first Democratic presidential nominee to win Georgia since 1992.
To claim the Peach Stateβs 16 electoral votes, Harris will have to run up a similar margin in Cobb County by (a) keeping lapsed Republican suburbanites on her side while (b) holding on to voters of color (some of whom seem to be trending toward Trump).
If she falls short, the former presidentβs huge advantage outside the metro Atlanta area will be hard to overcome.
Waukesha County, Wis.: To win key swing states, Harris doesnβt have to win every suburb β she just has to keep cutting into the GOPβs margins in places like Waukesha County.
Long a Republican stronghold β former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker regularly won there with more than 70% of the vote β Waukesha has gone from solid red to pale red in the Trump era.
White, affluent, college-educated voters β former Republicans who support abortion rights and have recoiled from Trump β are the reason. Waukesha is about 86% white, compared with 58% nationally; at more than $100,000, the countyβs median household income exceeds the U.S. average by 35%.
As these voters have moved to the middle in recent years, the gap between the Republican and Democratic vote in Waukesha County has closed. In 2012, Mitt Romney won there with 67% of the vote; in 2020, Trump won with less than 60%. Why? Because Biden outperformed his old boss, Barack Obama, by nearly 9 percentage points.
That might not sound like a huge improvement, but Waukesha has 400,000 residents β meaning Biden won about 25,000 more votes in 2020 than Obama won in 2012. Biden ultimately defeated Trump in Wisconsin by 20,682 votes.
Washoe County, Nev.: There are three political zones in Nevada. The sparsely populated βruralsβ β which cover most of the state β are hard-core Republican. Clark County β the dense, diverse and largely working-class area that encompasses Las Vegas β leans Democratic. And then thereβs Washoe County β i.e., Reno and Sparks β which tends to tip the entire state one way or the other.
And Nevada does tip; the result there has been within 3 percentage points in four of the past six presidential elections.
In 2016, Clinton won the Silver State by 2.4%; Biden won four years later by the same margin. But those identical results mask an important trend. Even though Trump made some gains in Clark County β where nearly three-quarters of Nevadaβs residents live β Biden was able to hang on because he won Washoe by 5 percentage points (compared with Clintonβs one-point margin).
Likewise, incumbent Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto won reelection in 2022 because she edged out her challenger in Washoe County by about 8,600 votes β more than her statewide margin of victory.
Why is Washoe trending blue? In 2016, Tesla opened an electric-motor βGigafactoryβ there; high-tech jobs have followed, luring more college-educated voters to the area. With polls showing Trump gaining among Hispanic voters β who compose about 20% of Nevadaβs electorate β Harris will have to match or even beat Bidenβs margin in Washoe to win statewide.
Wayne County, Mich.: Trump isnβt going to win Wayne County β i.e., metro Detroit β on Nov. 5. But if he wins the election, Wayne could help explain why.
For one thing, itβs Michiganβs most populous county, with 1.75 million residents. And it has high concentrations of two groups that might cause Harris some trouble: Black Americans (38%) and Arab Americans (about 8%).
In 2008, Obama won Wayne County with 74% of the vote; in 2020, Biden won it with 68%. Experts say Republicans have made inroads with white working-class voters who live to the west of Detroit.
If Harris does worse than Biden, she could be in trouble statewide. Recent polls that show softening support among Black men and Arab Americans opposed to the Biden administrationβs approach to the war in Gaza suggest that this is a real possibility.
On the plus side for Harris, Michigan Democrats won impressive victories in the 2018 and 2022 midterm elections, and the state GOP is disorganized. For his part, Trump recently disparaged Michiganβs largest city during a rally there, warning that βour whole country will end up being like Detroit if sheβs your president.β He also belittled autoworkers, claiming βa child could doβ their jobs.
Douglas County, Neb.: When you think of a swing state, you donβt usually think of Nebraska (which has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1968). But when you think of swing counties, Douglas County should come to mind.
Thatβs because in 1991 the Cornhusker State decided to split its five electoral votes between the statewide winner (who gets two electoral votes) and the winner of each of its three congressional districts.
Again, Trump is a lock statewide; heβs also a sure thing in the First and Third Congressional Districts. But the Second District β which is dominated by Douglas County and the stateβs largest city, Omaha β is up for grabs. Obama targeted and won the Second District in 2008, and Biden did the same in 2020.
About 90% of the Second Districtβs residents live in Douglas County. Theyβre mostly white, educated and suburban; a fair number of Black Americans live in the northern part of Omaha as well. Itβs a good mix for Democrats, especially in the Trump era: Bidenβs margin of victory in 2020 (11 points) was more than double Obamaβs margin in 2008.
If Harris can hold Douglas County, she could secure a crucial electoral vote. In fact, it could be decisive, putting Harrisβs tally at exactly 270 β the magic number for a majority β if she ends up sweeping the Rust Belt swing states (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania) while losing to Trump in the Sun Belt (Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada).
A tight congressional contest and dueling ballot measures on abortion β which could drive turnout β will only add to an unusually high-stakes atmosphere on Election Day.
Erie County, Pa.: Thereβs no more important swing state in 2024 than Pennsylvania β and thereβs no more important swing county in Pennsylvania than Erie, in the far northwestern corner of the state.
According to Silver Bulletinβs national polling averages, Harris would win 257 electoral votes to Trumpβs 262 if the election were held today. Only Pennsylvania is tied β meaning its 19 electoral votes would decide the outcome. Thatβs why itβs this yearβs likeliest tipping-point state.
Meanwhile, Erie County is like a microcosm of Pennsylvania as a whole, with its Democratic city center, conservative rural areas and ideologically mixed suburbs. As a result, itβs also a bellwether county, having voted the same way as the state in every presidential election since 1992.
In fact, only 25 counties nationwide β out of 3,143 β βboomerangedβ from Obama to Trump to Biden between 2012 and 2020. Erie is one of them.
A recent poll of Erie County by USA Today and Suffolk University found Harris (48%) with a slight advantage over Trump (44%) β but that was right after her strong Sept. 10 debate (and well within the margin of error). The county GOP claims to have cut into the Democratsβ voter registration edge in recent months. Prepare for a photo finish.
Maricopa County, Ariz.: Maricopa County β the area in and around Phoenix β has long been one of Americaβs most fascinating political microclimates, with explosive population growth and a combustible blend of voter demographics.
Four years ago, itβs where Biden effectively clinched the presidency; his 45,000-vote margin of victory made him the first Democrat since Harry Truman to win the county and the first Democrat since Bill Clinton to win the state.
Now Trump is trying to make a comeback. Republicans have made gains with voter registration, and polls show a slight edge for the former president statewide.
Thatβs in part because surveys also suggest Trump has pulled even in Maricopa. Border security is a big issue across Arizona, and it likely benefits the Republican nominee. Trump also appears to be cutting into Democratsβ lead among Latinos, who make up more than 30% of the countyβs population.
Harris still has a chance in Maricopa and in Arizona as a whole. The Phoenix area is home to a large contingent of Never Trump Republicans β many of them members of the Mormon church who have been turned off by the stateβs increasingly far-right GOP. And abortion β which has been a winning issue for Democrats in recent elections β will be on the ballot in the form of an amendment to the state constitution that would protect access to the procedure as a βfundamental right.β
Carrabus County, N.C.: Cabarrus has voted Republican in every presidential election since Truman won the county in 1948. But in 2020, Biden became the first Democrat since 1976 to finish within single digits of his Republican rival. He even performed better in Carrabus than Obama (who lost twice there, by nearly 20 points).
Why? Because the composition of this growing suburban area northeast of Charlotte has been changing β and its electorate has changed as a result. By 2000, the Black population of Carrabus County had fallen to about 12%; today, buoyed by 30-something metropolitan transplants, itβs nearing 20% again. The areaβs Asian and Hispanic populations have shot up as well. Meanwhile, voter registration has surged in recent years, with nonwhite residents leading the way. In 2022, Democrat Diamond Staton-Williams became the first person of color to represent Cabarrus in the North Carolina General Assembly.
Harris is hoping she can harness this shift in November β not to win Carrabus County but to further reduce Trumpβs margin of victory there and in other diversifying suburban areas. If she does that while running up the score in cities like Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham, she has a chance to repeat Obamaβs improbable 2008 statewide victory.
According to the latest polling averages, Trump leads in North Carolina by just a single point.