Increasingly, in Western countries like Canada, and Australia there are considering caps on the intake of foreign students, giving us a sense of the direction in which the global economy is moving. A lot of economies earn revenue from students from India and China. Now that reality is changing with the way these economies are functioning, the state they are in and the outlook for their growth in the future.
Santosh Rao: I think overall it is a temporary pause, if anything. because at the end of the day, Australia and Canada need people. There was a massive dislocation because of COVID. A lot of people went out of the workforce. So, they wanted new people in but maybe they went overboard. So, too much of anything at one time is always bad, politically also.
Canada is due for elections next year. In Canada and the US, immigration policy or illegal immigration is a abig issue because there is a sense that foreigners are coming over and taking away their jobs. There is a little bit of xenophobia. They do not want too many people coming in. It is a strain on the infrastructure, transportation and the school system. So, there is a ripple effect all the way around. But they need people. It is a big part of the GDP and student education is one of their big exports. So, I would not make it a big thing. It is a temporary pause if anything. At the end of the day, things will be back to normal. They just went overboard on too many things, made it too loose. They need to tighten up and that is what you are going to see.
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Yes, but certain factors that you are mentioning also are pointing towards xenophobia. Is there a move towards protectionism as well in terms of keeping jobs for native Canadians or native Australians. Can a direction change be seen there?
Santosh Rao: Yes, and that undercurrent was always there. The sense that the foreigners are coming and taking away their jobs is always lingering underneath that surface. But overall, right now it is still early stages as far as the percentage of people resenting foreign workers coming in and taking their jobs is concerned. In many cases especially in the US you see a lot of people lying, sitting on the floor, sitting on the roads. There is too much influx of foreigners coming in. So, they want things to straighten out, become more rational in a sense
Xenophobia is picking up and in the US, former President Trump could ride that wave if that becomes more and more heavy. So, there are a lot of things and in Canada, Trudeau is on weak grounds. He is not a very strong candidate for the next election.
Hardeep Singh Puri, the Union Minister in October last year said that if you are barely educated and you clear the IELTS exam, then you go to Canada as a truck driver and get a lot of money. The low-skilled manpower requirement of Canada is being met through this, he says. Is this something that you are noticing as well? Is that the bigger part of the migrant community that would be in demand in the future as well and not so much the skilled workers?
Santosh Rao: Yes. both Canada and the US need people to grow their GDP. Both these countries need a massive and very rational immigration policy as there is a lot of illegal immigration. In fact, there was one person who said the other day that it is easier to come into this country illegally than legally.
There is a demand for both skilled and unskilled workers, especially in the US and Canada. But at the end of the day, it is about balance, it is about doing it in an organised way and that is where the problem is. You cannot strain the educational system, or the local infrastructure. It has a domino effect down the line and Canada has free health care that has put additional pressure on the health system. There is demand in selected levels like IT, truck drivers….
But is that demand getting restricted? Is that demand depleting as global economy slows down or at least there are hints of that, do you see that demand depleting which means that Indian hopefuls may not be able to pursue that dream?
Santosh Rao: Yes, that risk is still there and it is growing because unemployment is there. The economies are slowing down. There is no recession as such but the economy is going to slow down after a big rise in the last few years. So, it is going to slow down, there is going to be excess labour, but that will be for a very short term. It is going to go up. They need people at the end of the day to grow. If someone new is planning to come to these countries, I would recommend that they wait because jobs are not easily available like in the past and this is due to supply-demand imbalance and macro economy also. So, a lot of cross-currents are playing there.
Canada as an economy grapples with rapidly growing migrant population that has put a strain on housing and public services like healthcare. They are creating enough jobs for their own people but not so much for immigrants. Do you see that happening elsewhere too? Is the Canada and Australia phenomenon likely to spread to other economies?
Santosh Rao: We have seen that in every slowdown, the wrong people get blamed. It is not the people’s fault. Everybody is entitled to a better life and they go looking for a better life. So, they are not doing anything unusual. You just have to wait for things to smoothen out a little bit. It will spread to Europe. I think that in some cases it has already. A centre right and further right wave is picking up in many European countries. The undercurrent of resentment is growing more because of the recessionary fears, but at the end of the day you cannot flip a switch and increase the population.
So, they know that they need people. The population in Japan, and China is shrinking now and they have huge issues down the road. So, you need to get these people in an organised manner and build it up to grow their GDPs and they realise that. I do not see a threat yet of spreading but you are going to see some problems, some issues here and there. But they are blaming the wrong people. They need a good immigration policy and organised immigration to get things going.