Canada August employment change +22.1 versus +25.0K estimate

Canada unemployment rate highest sans 2020-2021 Covid period

The prior two months showed declines of -2.8K and -1.4K. The gain is a relief, but is offset from the unemployment rate moving to 6.6% from 6.4% last month. That is the HIGHEST since May 2017 outside of 2020 and 2021. The mix of the Full and part time is also not great with the gain of 61.6K in full time last month, saw most of that reversed with -43.6K decline this month.

Overall, the trend is still weaker and supports further monetary policy reaction from the BOC. This week the BOC did cut rates by 25 basis points with Macklem saying if projections on inflation prove out, further cuts can be expected.

The USDCAD was trading at 1.3490 prior to both the US and Canada employment reports. The US jobs report tends to overwhelm the Canada jobs report. It is being touted as weaker with revisions contributing to the weakness allthough the unemployment rate did decline. The USDCAD has moved lower to 1.3465. The Fed funds probability sees 51% chance for a 50 cut vs around 57% before. Call it 50-50.

Some further detail:

By Demographic:

• Core-aged women (25-54): Employment grew by 20,000 (+0.3%).
• Other major demographic groups: Employment held steady.

By Industry:

• Increased:
  • Educational services: +27,000 (+1.7%)
  • Health care and social assistance: +25,000 (+0.9%)
  • Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing: +11,000 (+0.8%)
• Decreased:
  • Other services: -19,000 (-2.3%)
  • Professional, scientific, and technical services: -16,000 (-0.8%)
  • Utilities: -6,800 (-4.5%)
  • Natural resources: -6,500 (-1.8%)

By Region:

• Increased:
  • Alberta: +13,000 (+0.5%)
  • Nova Scotia: +5,000 (+1.0%)
  • Manitoba: +4,400 (+0.6%)
  • Prince Edward Island: +900 (+1.0%)
• Decreased:
  • Newfoundland and Labrador: -2,400 (-1.0%)

Looking at the total hours:

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