The aftermath of a strong solar flare this weekend will give rise to yet another decent opportunity to see the northern lights across Canada early Monday morning.
Night owls with clear skies should head outside and gaze up for a chance to see dazzling auroras between midnight and sunrise local time.
Here’s a look at conditions across the country, and where folks might have the greatest potential to spot a memorable display of colours to start the week.
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Aurora potential increases after strong solar storm
A powerful solar flare burst forth from the Sun on Saturday morning, sending a coronal mass ejection (CME) racing toward Earth. Monday morning’s potential arrives just a few days after a similar storm triggered auroras overnight Thursday into Friday.
This latest surge of plasma and magnetic field is expected to reach our atmosphere overnight Sunday into early Monday morning, triggering a strong geomagnetic storm as it arrives on our doorstep.
The energy of a geomagnetic storm ionizes gasses in our planet’s upper atmosphere, which glow and dance as a spectacle of coloured lights against the night sky.
Experts rate the intensity of geomagnetic activity on the Kp Index, which ranges from Kp 0 on the low end to Kp 9 on the high end. Values around Kp 7 are sufficient for nationwide aurora visibility.
Monday morning’s geomagnetic activity could reach Kp 7, according to the U.S. Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). This could make the northern lights visible all the way into southern Ontario.
The SWPC expects solar activity to reach Kp 7 around 5:00-8:00 a.m. Eastern Time, or 2:00-5:00 a.m. Pacific Time. This timing may provide the western half of Canada with better viewing than across eastern sections of the country, where the peak may occur around or just after sunrise.
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Conditions great for some parts of the country
As always, successful aurora viewing ultimately comes down to the weather.
We’re looking at vast stretches of clear skies across Canada overnight Sunday into Monday morning, providing plenty of folks the chance to catch a glimpse of the northern lights.
Folks across southern British Columbia, away from the city lights of Metro Vancouver, might score the best opportunity for aurora spotting through the overnight hours.
While large portions of Alberta and Manitoba will escape significant cloud cover, folks in the southern half of Saskatchewan might miss out as clouds increase ahead of a developing low-pressure system over the southern Prairies.
A powerful ridge of high pressure parked over Eastern Canada will provide crystal clear skies to the majority of Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. A bit of luck will be required here, though, as the geomagnetic storm will have to race the sunrise in order for any auroras to be visible here.
If Thursday night’s display is strong enough to send the aurora into southern reaches of Canada, many folks across southern Ontario away from the Greater Toronto Area’s lights may have a decent chance to view the lights if you wake up early enough.
We’re in the decade’s best spell of auroras
Two aurora alerts in a week? It’s no surprise given that we’re approaching solar maximum, the peak of the Sun’s predictable 11-year cycle during which we typically see hundreds of sunspots across our star’s surface. Auroras are more common during this point in the cycle.
A historic geomagnetic storm back in May sent the northern lights all the way into the tropics, providing a once-in-a-lifetime event for millions of people around the world.
Header image submitted by Matthew Burik at Manitoba’s Bowden Lake.