These are worrying times for Cardiff City manager Erol Bulut.
The Bluebirds’ worst start to the season for 35 years is a big enough headache.
One goal, one point and propping up the Championship after four losses in five league games is a concern for any manager.
But history will provide the former Fenerbahce boss little solace.
The fall
A look back at the Vincent Tan era shows this is a perilous time of the year for those in the managerial hot seat at Cardiff City Stadium.
Of the 11 permanent managers appointed since Tan arrived at the club, five have departed between September and early November. The ‘fall’ is an appropriate description.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer went nine games into a new season in September 2014. Paul Trollope’s bright new dawn lasted 11 matches to October 2016, before Neil Warnock guided Cardiff to one of their two Premier League promotions under Tan the following season.
Warnock stayed beyond October in the autumn of 2019, but departed in the November – an early end to his three-year tenure, having always said the 2019-20 campaign would be his last at the Welsh club.
Mick McCarthy had a dynamic start and a brilliant run to turn the team from a relegation-threatened outfit into one which flirted with the play-offs, taking over from Neil Harris in January 2021. Eight straight losses in the next campaign saw his exit by “mutual consent” in October.
His successor Steve Morison staved off relegation in his first season. Ten games into the new Championship programme he had departed with Cardiff in 18th position, with 11 points from 10 games as he left on September 18, 2022.
It is an-all-too familiar scenario. Win a successful battle against relegation one season, building optimism for the next. And after a poor start, the ejector seat is activated.
Every departure is different. Every departure has a justification. But it’s not a great look and does not exude stability at the club.
Voices are raised
There are voices calling for Bulut to be the latest victim of an autumn overhaul given the stark reality of the league table.
Cardiff fans were hoping the recent international window would give Bulut and his coaching team time to work with the squad in the hope of an upturn at Derby County.
The 1-0 defeat at Pride Park saw more metaphorical knife-sharpening among the faithful judging by some of the supporters who contacted Saturday’s edition of the BBC Radio Wales phone-in Call Rob.
The optics were not helped when Bulut – uncharacteristically – did not do post match interviews.
Bulut, rightly, has credit in the bank from some fans for the way he dealt with a tough hand last season. Arriving under a transfer embargo last summer and with limited funds in January, he brought a marked improvement and ensured a 12th-place finish on 62 points.
In the previous two seasons, Cardiff had laboured to 53 points and had not even reached the half-century mark in Sabri Lamouchi’s scramble to avoid the drop, aided by a Reading points deduction.
Last season was notable for some dramatic smash and grabs. As Bulut has pointed out, the underlying stats were not always great.
But no-one cared about general play when there were injury-time wins at Preston and at home against Premier League-bound Ipswich; a late winning show against visiting Southampton; and a Christmas bonus last-gasp triumph at Sheffield Wednesday.
Cardiff did the ugly things effectively. They stayed in games when seeing little of the ball, had a never-say-die attitude to lay the ground for late rallies and excelled at set-pieces. Indeed, they finished top of the Championship set-piece goals table.
Bulut has tried to change the way Cardiff play this season. Their possession stats have improved, currently the sixth highest in the division at 53% compared to 45% last season. But that counts for little when the Bluebirds have only Callum Robinson’s goal against Swansea to show for their efforts.
He also played the “change” card at Derby, fulfilling his post-Middlesbrough vow to make sweeping changes to the starting line-up. The result was unchanged.
With a section of fans, at least, the credit has run dry.
Bulut’s challenge
Though officially Cardiff are not thought to be considering Bulut’s position, no self-respecting hierarchy is going to sit on their hands if results continue as they are.
The Championship can be brutal for managers. Preston parted company with Ryan Lowe after their first game. Stoke City have sacked Steven Schumacher. They have two wins from five and sit 13th.
Cardiff now face Leeds United at home on Saturday when emotion is sure to be high in the stadium as both clubs pay tribute to Sol Bamba.
Before October’s international break they have a trip to Hull City, entertain former manager Harris’ Millwall and face a Severnside derby at Bristol City.
After the international window there are home games against Plymouth and newly-promoted Portsmouth.
Following the optimism surrounding what looked a promising summer transfer window, Bulut will know an upturn is required quickly. He is not helped by injuries to Aaron Ramsey, Jesper Daland and others. But all clubs face injuries.
Bulut’s challenge will be to execute his desired change of style and approach, while inspiring a change of fortunes. That will mean his players finding their touch in front of goal.
For Bulut that will also will mean shrugging off the reputation as a defensive coach.
A two-year contract signed in June after prolonged negotiations probably counts for little in the club’s current predicament.
The current vibes appear to be he will be given more time but, of course, that could change at any moment.
The ultimate judge and jury is the money man, Vincent Tan. All guesses as to the immediate future of Bulut are already couched in those terms.
He is safe – until he gets the fateful phone call from the Malaysian owner.
During his reign, Tan has too often sanctioned or demanded action before the chill of a poor autumn becomes a winter of discontent.