Warmer than usual fall predicted for Alberta, most of Canada

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Puffy winter jackets can wait a bit longer as warm fall weather approaches for Alberta and much of Canada, with possible shots of cold air arriving intermittently.

The Weather Network predicts in its  fall forecast released on Wednesday that Alberta temperatures will be above normal through September, October and November, according to meteorologist Michael Carter.

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Much of the country is also expected to be above the norm, according to the outlook.

“Temperatures across the board (are) expected to trend near normal to above normal,” Carter said in an interview with Postmedia. “Nowhere in the country do we really see signs of intense cold this fall.”

Carter described this fall as being a “push and pull” between summer and winter weather patterns as seasons transition.

There will be “a lot of back and forth, trending towards above normal, especially in the early part of the season — but we’re not going to rule out those cold shots,” Carter said.

“You get your shot of fall air — you wake up in the morning, you need the little socks and a hot coffee, and then the next day you’re gonna (go) back up into the low 20s, mid 20s,” he said.

“Pacific influence” or that of the jet stream, he says, will play a role in bringing some unsettled weather to parts of British Columbia — and potentially Alberta.

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Much of B.C. is expected to see above-normal precipitation, but there won’t be a great deal pushed into Alberta.

The prairie provinces, including the bulk of Alberta and Saskatchewan, will see near-normal precipitation, says Carter. But there are exceptions in eastern Manitoba, which may see less rainfall than usual, along with north and southwest Alberta which may see more rainfall.

“There’s six different kinds of shoes that have to be out at any one time, because you got to have the snow boots and the flip flops all going at once,” he said.

“Especially in the early part of the fall season, take advantage of the milder days when they come. Summer is a short season for us, even in a good year.”

‘Warmest July on record’ for Calgary

Searing temperatures led to multiple heat events in July, including during the Calgary Stampede.

“July came in as the warmest July on record for Calgary,” said Alysa Pederson, a warning preparedness meteorologist with Environment Canada. “Most of our heat this summer was in the month of July.”

The mean temperature for July, which combines daytime highs and overnight lows for the entire month, was 19.9 C — above the normal of 16.5 C.

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“It broke that by about three degrees, which is pretty hard to do,” Pederson said. “Even seeing a difference of one degree is notable in mean temperatures.”

She said about 13 days in July were under heat warnings. Calgary also saw 41 millimetres of precipitation over the month, when the average is about 65 millimetres.

August mean temperatures were 16.6 C, higher than the 15.8 C normal, while seeing 80.9 millimetres of precipitation, above the 57 average.

Through meteorological summer, or June, July and August, Calgary had 189 millimetres of precipitation total, 88 per cent below the normal 216 millimetres.

Pederson mentioned Environment Canada will release a “summer recap” for Alberta late this week or early next.

Winter to shift into La Niña conditions

With talk of El Niño conditions prevalent in weather reports last winter, Carter says there’s an expected shift to La Niña in their upcoming winter forecast.

El Niño led to a mild winter of 2023 and 2024, where a lot of Canada “escaped” significant winter weather when it came to Arctic air and frequent storms, according to Carter.

Into October, November and turning the page into December La Niña will become a “big driver” as the pattern gets established in the atmosphere.

“Once you get into that La Niña state, that is when you really open the door to the more prolonged cold, the more serious episodes of cold air that kind of come and stick around,” Carter said.

That’s when temperatures are more likely to be in the “deep negative” territory of -20 C to -30 C, which stay for longer versus “quick cold shots,” he said.

“When those come, you know, often those bring drier conditions as well.”

— With files from The Canadian Press

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