It’s never too early to start thinking about the College Football Playoff field.
With this season’s playoff expanding to 12 teams, we’ll be laying out the projected playoff field each week as the season goes on. Yeah, the official playoff rankings won’t be released until Nov. 5, but that won’t stop us from making our own guesses.
Without CFP rankings as our guide, we’ll mostly rely on the AP Top 25 as our barometer to project the field. The CFP rankings and AP poll typically have many more similarities than differences at the end of the season. Here’s what the provisional playoff field looks like after Week 3.
First-round byes
1. Texas Longhorns (3-0, projected SEC champion)
The Longhorns jumped Georgia atop the AP poll following a big win over UTSA. And Arch Manning could be the team’s starter in Week 4 with Quinn Ewers questionable to play because of an abdominal injury he suffered against the Roadrunners. Manning was fantastic in his relief appearance following Ewers’ injury as he ran for a TD and threw for four others. If he starts on Saturday against Louisiana-Monroe, we’ll get a matchup of top Louisiana high school quarterbacks in Manning and ULM QB General Booty.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (2-0, projected Big Ten champion)
The Buckeyes had an early off week with no game in Week 3. Ohio State’s second off week of the season comes on Oct. 19, meaning the Buckeyes could play seven straight games to end the season if they make the Big Ten title game. Marshall comes to Columbus in Week 4 as Ohio State caps off non-conference play before a visit to Michigan State in Week 5.
3. Miami Hurricanes (3-0, projected ACC champion)
The Hurricanes have upped their scoring output in each week so far. After scoring 41 against Florida, Miami dropped 56 against Florida A&M and then 62 against Ball State. We have our doubts that trend will continue on the road against a feisty South Florida team in Week 4. The Bulls hung with a sloppy Alabama team for more than three quarters in Week 2 before the Crimson Tide broke the game open.
4. Utah Utes (3-0, projected Big 12 champion)
The Utes took care of business in Week 3 without Cameron Rising. Freshman QB Isaac Wilson — the brother of former BYU QB Zach Wilson — was 20-of-33 passing for 239 yards and threw three TDs along with an interception in Utah’s 38-21 win at Utah State. Rising could be back in Week 4 after missing the game against the Aggies. And that’s a really big deal. The Utes have their first Big 12 game on the road at No. 14 Oklahoma State.
First-round games
No. 12 Northern Illinois (2-0, projected MAC champion) at No. 5 Georgia (3-0, at-large)
The Huskies were also off in Week 3 as they basked in the glow of their win over Notre Dame. NIU opens MAC play at home in Week 4 against a Buffalo team that was blown out at Missouri in Week 2. Georgia is the only new team in this category as it drops four spots as the top at-large team. The Bulldogs were less than convincing in a 13-12 win at Kentucky in Week 3. What happens if Kentucky coach Mark Stoops doesn’t play it super conservatively and punt on fourth-and-13 from his own 48-yard line with less than three minutes to go? Georgia still probably wins, but Kentucky has a better chance.
No. 11 Oregon (3-0, at-large) at No. 6 Alabama (3-0, at-large)
The Ducks played their best game of the season — by far — in a 49-14 demolition of Oregon State. It was extremely weird to watch that game happen in September and not the weekend after Thanksgiving. Dillon Gabriel threw two TDs and ran for another as Oregon racked up 546 yards. The Ducks are off in Week 4. Alabama, meanwhile, was also very impressive in a blowout win at Wisconsin. QB Jalen Milroe had five total touchdowns.
No. 10 Penn State (2-0, at-large) at No. 7 Ole Miss (3-0, at-large)
The Nittany Lions have the same schedule as the Buckeyes with an off Week in Week 3 and another one in Week 8 of this 14-week season. Ole Miss made easy work of Wake Forest as the Rebels took a 20-3 lead in the first quarter on the way to a 40-6 win. The Rebels have given up just nine points all season. This could be Lane Kiffin’s most well-rounded team ever.
No. 9 Missouri (3-0, at-large) at No. 8 Tennessee (3-0, at-large)
This matchup flip flops as the Vols jumped the Tigers in the AP poll. It was hard to disagree with that decision. Missouri got a win over a ranked opponent in a 27-21 victory over previously No. 24 Boston College, but the Tigers made it a little too close for comfort in the second half. The Volunteers, meanwhile, just absolutely blitzed Kent State in a 71-0 win. Tennessee scored 37 points in the first quarter as their final score of the period came following a surprise onside kick up 30-0. Even if you don’t have a problem with teams trying to run up the score, you have to think that’s a little harsh.