Friday, November 22, 2024

Fantasy Football Week 3: How will the Chiefs manage without Isiah Pacheco?

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Running backs remain king in fantasy football. While it feels like there are more elite quarterbacks and wide receivers than ever before, the amount of consistent, dependable running backs is dwindling. This makes it all the more important to find value at running back in fantasy football. In order to help you do that, I will be taking a look at a few backfields each week who stick out based on recent trends or new information we learned.

Week 2 is always a chaotic one in the NFL because so many of our thoughts and opinions are based on a one-game sample size from the week before. This year was no exception, so without further ado, let’s get into some of my top backfield takeaways after a wonky Week 2.

Chiefs starting running back Isiah Pacheco suffered a fractured fibula in the fourth quarter of Sunday’s game, and he is expected to miss six to eight weeks. This leaves a potentially massive room for opportunity, as Pacheco was a weekly top-15 running back. The Chiefs signed Kareem Hunt to their practice squad on Tuesday as a reinforcement, and it looks like Hunt, rookie Carson Steele, and veteran Samaje Perine will be the rotating carries in Pacheco’s absence.

If I had to guess how the volume would be split, I would expect Steele and Hunt to alternate series playing mostly on first and second down, with Perine coming in as a pass-catcher. That wouldn’t be the best situation for fantasy football, as neither of the three running backs would receive enough volume to truly make an impact. However, that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t add them to your roster; we have seen guys like Jerick McKinnon excel in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense in the past even with fewer touches.

I would prioritize Steele, Perine, and Hunt in that order this week on the waiver wire, and will check back in next week to see how the Chiefs split touches between the three.

The Buccaneers continued to work in Bucky Irving as an ancillary running back to Rachaad White. After playing 31% of offensive snaps in Week 1, Irving played 35% of snaps this week in the Buccaneers’ upset win over the Lions. White briefly left the game due to an injury but returned, and was his usual inefficient self on the ground.

White turned 10 carries into just 18 yards, putting his yard-per-carry mark at 1.96 through two weeks. Irving was not nearly as efficient as he was last week against a stout Lions run defense, but still out-produced White with 22 yards on seven carries. Considering the Buccaneers look like a solid overall offense, I would definitely pick up Irving this week if he isn’t already rostered in your league. The Bucs could very well shift to using Irving as their main back in running situations, leaving White to excel as a pass-catcher which would play better to both of their respective strengths.

I also wouldn’t be panicking just yet if I was relying on White as a starter, as his receiving work should make him startable in PPR leagues even if his rushing work starts to decrease. However, White is not a bad trade candidate either, as this might be the most volume he’ll get all year.

Veteran running back D’Onta Foreman led the Browns backfield with 14 carries on Sunday. This came as a bit of a surprise, as Foreman played just one total snap in Week 1 and was the Browns’ third running back behind Jerome Ford and Pierre Strong. Foreman wasn’t too effective with his workload, running for 42 yards. Notably, Foreman also received one of the team’s two goal-line carries, but failed to capitalize (Deshaun Watson punched in the other chance on a QB sneak).

Ford, meanwhile, led the team in rushing, rumbling for 64 yards on just seven carries. Truth be told, I would be a little worried if I was depending on Ford as an RB2 or FLEX each week. We knew that the Browns offense would not be an elite unit due to Watson’s frazzled quarterback play, so the appeal behind Ford (while Nick Chubb recovers) has always been volume behind a solid offensive line.

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But if Ford splits time with Foreman moving forward, I struggle to see how he would consistently score double-digit fantasy points unless he becomes a force in the passing game. It is also possible that Foreman’s usage was a one-off occurrence, so I will be closely monitoring this situation in the coming weeks.

The Commanders seem to have settled into a standard timeshare between Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler, with Robinson acting as the two-down workhorse and Ekeler getting reps in passing situations. Two weeks isn’t long enough to provide us with a super strong sample size, but Robinson has been effective with his carries by all accounts — he ranks top-five among running backs in yards per carry, yards after contact per carry, and breakaway run percentage.

Ekeler has been fine in his own regard, and ranks second among running backs with 99 receiving yards thus far. I wasn’t the biggest fan of either of the two in the offseason because I didn’t think the offense would be good enough to support them, but the Commanders have clearly placed an emphasis on getting Robinson and Ekeler the ball whenever they are on the field.

This means that they are both playable options in fantasy, with Robinson being a legitimate top-24 option if he continues to see 15+ touches a week. I would have some reservations about starting Ekeler in non-PPR formats as he typically plays less snaps (40%) than Robinson, but he has some FLEX appeal. One thing to keep an eye on in the next few weeks is the goal-line carry distribution. Robinson and Jayden Daniels have split the team’s goal-line carries for the most part so far, but Ekeler has historically been a great touchdown producer and I’d be much more comfortable starting him if he gets some higher-value touches.

The Bengals had a significant shift in their running back usage on Sunday. After Zack Moss and Chase Brown split snaps on a 65% to 33% basis in Week 1, Moss seemingly took over the RB1 role. He was on the field for 80% of the Bengals snaps in their loss against the Chiefs, and had three times as many carries as Brown. This is certainly a situation to look out for as the Bengals attempt to bounce back from their 0-2 start.

Joe Burrow played a lot better last week than he did during the Bengals loss to the Patriots, and I’m still optimistic that the Bengals offense will be a top-10 unit especially with Tee Higgins expected to return soon. Moss has received all the goal-line and short-yardage work for Cincy to date, which means he should start to consistently produce in the touchdown department if the Bengals offense improves.

On the flip side, I’m particularly concerned that Brown had zero targets in Week 2 and is averaging just 0.67 receiving yards per route run. Even though Brown was more efficient than Moss, if he cannot make a name for himself in the passing game even with Tee Higgins out, he would likely become nothing more than a backup to Moss.

I would consider floating out some trade offers to buy low on Moss, as he had a bad fantasy point output but his underlying usage is quite promising and indicates better production on the horizon.

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