We’re just past the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season and there’s a system brewing deep in the heart of the Caribbean.
Forecasters are watching a disturbance for potential development as it heads toward the Gulf of Mexico next week. Anyone with interests along the Gulf Coast should pay very close attention to this system over the next couple of days.
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Gulf disturbance has decent odds of development
Weather models have been aggressive about the potential growth of a tropical disturbance currently moving through the western Caribbean Sea.
This system will slowly move toward the Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days, where it’ll run into conditions generally favourable for tropical development.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives the system a 50 percent (medium) chance of growing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by early next week as it skirts Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula.
We’ll watch the system move into an environment with relatively low wind shear, ample humidity, and extremely warm water temperatures—all of which are ingredients a disturbance needs to organize and gather strength.
While we know the environment will be favourable for tropical development, it’s still far too early to tell how strong a storm would grow or which direction it would travel. It’s safe to say that the entire Gulf Coast from Mexico to Florida should keep a close eye on the forecasts over the coming days. Heavy rain is likely to accompany this system regardless of its future strength.
Several other disturbances out in the open ocean
Forecasters are monitoring two other areas of disturbed weather in the open Atlantic Ocean for signs of potential development over the next five days. Each region has a very low (10 percent) chance of tropical formation over the next week.
One of the areas is the remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon, a weak and short-lived storm that fell apart earlier this week. It’s not uncommon for erstwhile tropical systems to come back to life like a ‘zombie’ during the peak of hurricane season. If the system does regenerate, it’s unlikely to pose any threat to Canada or the U.S.
No time to let our guard down yet
The peak of hurricane season occurred on September 10. We’re in the thick of the season through the middle of October, a period during which some of history’s most intense hurricanes have thrived and roared ashore.
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It’s been an unusually and surprisingly quiet hurricane season across the Atlantic Ocean so far this year. Extremely warm sea surface temperatures and a budding La Niña led forecasters to expect a hyperactive season—the opposite has happened so far, with relatively few storms developing over the steamy ocean so far this year.
Despite the unexpected lull in activity this season, we could still see dangerous storms develop over the coming days and weeks. Coastal residents should closely monitor forecasts and have emergency preparedness kits ready to go long before a storm ever threatens land.