We’re officially three weeks into the NFL season and quarterbacks still aren’t quite “quarterbacking” to our expectations. Retread veterans continue to dominate — even Andy Dalton and Malik Willis stepped up with top-10 performances this week — and young players we expected to take a leap in Year 2 or provide immediate impact as rookies are missing the mark.
It’s time we evaluate their performances coming off Week 3, and our level of trust in their pass catchers.
Fantasy superstar QBs failing to hit fantasy draft value
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Stroud’s early season production isn’t panic-inducing but for the past two weeks, he’s finished outside the top-15 in fantasy points. His only top-10 finish was in Week 1 against an Indianapolis defense that’s had its fair share of early-season struggles, including allowing Caleb Williams the best performance of his early career (we’ll get to that in a second). This week Stroud completed 20 of 31 passes for 215 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions for his worst fantasy performance of the season.
Pulse check: Does Stroud get a pass for his early season performances?
I’m willing to give Stroud a pass on his Week 3 performance against Minnesota. In the words of Brock Purdy, that “scheme is crazy.”
But it is concerning that we’ve yet to see Stroud surpass 260 passing yards. Stroud’s fantasy value comes from volume. He lacks the rushing upside to push him over the 20-point fantasy hump. Two hundred and fifty yards and two touchdowns is a fine day for a quarterback but simply not enough for Stroud to pay off at his ADP.
Look ahead to Stroud’s upcoming schedule and you start to see a problem. Aside from a matchup here and there, Stroud’s schedule isn’t particularly quarterback-friendly. Stroud moves from a solid mid-QB1 to a quarterback borderline QB with limited rushing upside.
There’s a secondary question that we must answer — are we concerned for Stroud’s receivers?
Stroud’s current volume is enough to ensure weekly fantasy upside for Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs. Dell had his best performance of the year in Week 3 but he’ll continue to be a volatile asset until Stroud starts to consistently see 300-plus-yard performances. While we are concerned about Stroud’s overall output, there’s no panic for the receiver corps outside of Dell.
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Concerns for Richardson are far more significant than Stroud’s. Whereas Stroud has had more middling performances, Richardson has been boom/bust/bust this season, and we’re faced with the reality of what Richardson’s fantasy production looks like when he doesn’t get rushing touchdowns. It’s not as if we expected a significant leap in Richardson as a passer, but his skill set is volatile. Richardson leans heavily on the deep ball with an extremely high average depth of target. When it hits, it’s magic. However, after two straight misses, our trust level is dropping.
Pulse check: Are we ready to label Richarson as a bust?
The major concern here is that Richardson’s metrics are declining. Our 2023 sample size was admittedly small but Richardson had just one interception in 84 attempts. This year, he already has four interceptions through 53 attempts. In 2023, Richardson had a completion percentage of approximately 60%. This year, it’s 49%.
This week’s game was intriguing. For all of Richardson’s struggles and the low score, Indianapolis had plenty of red-zone opportunities. When it came to goal-line looks, the Colts leaned heavily on Jonathon Taylor. We drafted Richardson for rushing upside but if the goal-line touches continue to tilt Taylor’s way, we’ve got a major problem.
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With Taylor’s dominance at the goal line and Richardson’s struggles through the air, are we concerned for Richardson’s receivers?
Unlike Stroud, Richardson’s underwhelming performances are significantly affecting his pass catchers. Michael Pittman Jr. has a maximum of just four receptions and 36 receiving yards. On Sunday’s “Fantasy Football Live” show, I expressed concern for Pittman moving forward; that still stands after today’s game. Deep-ball players like Alec Pierce certainly benefit from Richardson’s skill set but will be volatile low-target players you never feel comfortable starting.
Deep-league QBs with major implications for their weapons
The Good: Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Williams had his best performance of the season in an extremely high-volume game where he threw 52 passes, completing 33 for 363 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Forty-four yards of that was an end-of-half Hail Mary caught by DJ Moore on a deflection. Regardless, this was a huge step in a positive direction for Williams and the Bears. That said, it’s important that we pause and contextualize this performance before making Williams a weekly start.
Pulse check: is this level of production the new expectation for Williams?
Indianapolis’ defense is a problem … and not in a good way. Williams having a strong performance against the Colts isn’t exactly setting a new standard for what to expect moving forward. Sacks continue to be an issue for Williams, turnovers remain a problem and the run game offers limited support. Williams’ upcoming schedule is friendly but he’s still only a streaming option. The step forward for Rome Odunze was an excellent sign for his development and the resurgence of Cole Kmet was thrilling. It remains to be seen what type of distribution we’ll see in a fully healthy receiving corps but the increased volume and excellent matchups help instill confidence in Williams’ pass catchers moving forward.
The Bad: Will Levis, Tennessee Titans
In Levis’ defense, the Titans’ early schedule has been extremely unfriendly. Chicago and the Jets have two of the top defenses in the league and Green Bay’s pass defense appears much improved in 2024 with the addition of Xavier McKinney. Levis has four touchdowns on the season with five interceptions, plus a fumble lost in each game. His Week 3 performance was a slight improvement on prior weeks but that level of output simply won’t get the job done.
If we wanted to make excuses for Levis, there’s plenty of source material. However, there are only so many excuses you can make when half of the mistakes are entirely your own fault. Levis isn’t simply struggling against tough defenses — he’s struggling against himself.
When it comes to Levis’ pass catchers, his inconsistencies make it difficult to trust his receivers. Levis’ volume isn’t enough to supply multiple fantasy-relevant receivers, particularly when a significant portion of his passes are going to the running backs. Of Levis’ 26 completions, seven were to Pollard and Spears. We can expect Calvin Ridley to operate as the WR1 in good matchups and DeAndre Hopkins to step up if coverage is locking down Ridley. Levis’ struggles place his pass catchers in flex positions with associated volatility.
The Ugly: Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
Similar to Levis, Nix had his best performance of the year, and much like Levis, we’re still left with zero encouragement for consistent fantasy production. When we look at Nix, we’re looking at him from a perspective of how his play affects the weapons around him because Nix simply can’t be trusted even as a streaming option in deep leagues, and only offers desperation Superflex value.
Pulse check: Is there a single start-worthy option in the Broncos offense?
We are three games into the season and Nix has yet to throw a touchdown. He has four interceptions and has failed to throw more than 250 passing yards with most of his own fantasy value coming on the ground. Whereas Levis has managed to provide some fantasy value, Nix’s struggles through the air have destroyed consistency and upside for any pass catcher.
Courtland Sutton’s Week 3 performance was his best of the season but still provides us with barely 10 fantasy points in half-PPR. Josh Reynolds has stepped up as the Broncos’ WR2 but remains a low-volume asset and there is no consistency for a third pass-catching option with Greg Dulcich going from a target leader in Week 2 to zero targets in Week 3. The entire Broncos’ offense remains untouchable until Nix can provide both volume and touchdowns.