Forecasters are closely watching with a tropical storm likely to form in the coming days, as a disturbance moves slowly across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico through the end of this week.
Anyone with interests along the Gulf Coast should pay very close attention to this system, with the potential for a major hurricane to develop, and millions to be impacted from Louisiana to Florida.
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Tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches already in effect
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form during the next few days over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent portions of Central America.
Thereafter, gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical storm is likely to form on Tuesday as the system moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico through the end of this week.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives the system a 90 per cent chance of growing into a tropical storm in the next seven days.
“Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next several days,” the NHC said in a long-range outlook.
While we know the environment will be favourable for tropical development, it’s still too early to know exactly what category the hurricane is expected to reach. Computer models however, are indicating that there is the chance for it to become a named storm, Helene, by Tuesday, and possibly a major hurricane by Wednesday.
It’s safe to say that the entire Gulf Coast from Mississippi to Florida should keep a close eye on the forecasts over the coming days, as a landfall is looking more likely to be Thursday. Heavy rain will accompany this system regardless of its future strength.
Total rain accumulations of 100 to 200 mm are forecast over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands, with isolated totals possibly reaching 300 mm. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 50 to 100 mm rain is expected with isolated totals over 150 mm.
“This rainfall brings a risk of flassh and urban flooding and minor river flooding,” the NHC warns.
Heavy rainfall will then spread into the Southeast U.S. on Wednesday, and continue through Friday, with a risk for flash flooding. Dangerous storm surge, and strong winds are also expected for portions of the northeastern Gulf Coast, including the Florida Panhandle and sections of Florida’s west coast.
Residents are being strongly urged to have a hurricane plan in place.
🌀Leon County continues to monitor the tropical weather system in the Caribbean closely and coordinates with the National Weather Service. In anticipation of potential heavy rainfall, Leon County will open five sandbag locations for residents. Follow @NWSTallahassee & @LeonCounty pic.twitter.com/v8PJDVtRWW
— David O’Keefe, County Commissioner (@commishokeefe) September 22, 2024
The peak of hurricane season has passed, but no time to let our guard down, yet
The peak of hurricane season occurred on Sept. 10, but we’re in the thick of the season through the middle of October, a period during which some of history’s most intense hurricanes have thrived and roared ashore.
It’s been an unusually and surprisingly quiet hurricane season across the Atlantic Ocean so far this year. Extremely warm sea surface temperatures and a budding La Niña led forecasters to expect a hyperactive season—the opposite has happened so far, with relatively few storms developing over the steamy ocean so far this year.
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Despite the unexpected lull in activity this season, we could still see dangerous storms develop over the coming days and weeks. Coastal residents should closely monitor forecasts and have emergency preparedness kits ready to go long before a storm ever threatens land.
Other disturbances out in the open ocean
Forecasters are monitoring another area of disturbed weather off the coast of Africa for signs of potential development over the next seven days, with a 70 chance of formation.