Here are the playoff scenarios for the Mets during the final games of the regular season, with the postseason set to begin in a few days…
Mets clinch a Wild Card spot if…
The Mets (87-72) are tied with the Diamondbacks (88-73) for the final Wild Card spot, and are 1.0 game back of the Braves (88-71) for the second Wild Card spot.
However, because the Mets won the season series over the D-backs, they own the tiebreaker and will finish ahead of them if the two teams end the season tied.
And even after losing on Friday and Saturday, the Mets still control their own fate.
Here are the scenarios for Sunday:
If the Mets win AND the Diamondbacks lose, the Mets are in
If the Braves win OR the Diamondbacks lose, the Braves are in
If the Diamondbacks win and the Mets AND Braves lose, the D-backs are in
In a scenario where the Mets are swept by the Brewers, the Mets would still be able to clinch a spot by sweeping Monday’s doubleheader, which would give New York the tiebreaker over Atlanta by virtue of winning the season series.
Here’s where it gets complicated…
In a world where the Mets clinch a playoff spot before the games with the Braves are set to be played on Monday, and those games are only needed for seeding, it’s possible they will not be played.
But in order for the above to happen, the D-backs would have to be knocked out on Sunday.
If Mets enter Monday tied with only Arizona
In a world where the Mets and D-backs either both win or both lose on Sunday, the two teams will be tied.
But because the Mets have the tiebreaker over Arizona, they would have to win just one game of Monday’s doubleheader to clinch a Wild Card spot.
If Mets enter Monday tied with Atlanta and Arizona
If the Mets and D-backs win on Sunday and the Braves lose, New York and Atlanta will enter play on Monday with identical records of 88-72, while the D-backs would be 89-73.
In this scenario, the Mets would need just one win to clinch a spot, since they have the tiebreaker over Arizona and one win would guarantee they finish no worse than 89-73.
If Mets enter Monday tied with only Atlanta
If the Mets win on Sunday and both the D-backs and Braves lose, the Mets and Braves will both be in the playoffs and the D-backs will be eliminated before Monday’s games are set to be played.
That’s because in that scenario, the Mets (88-72) would be unable to be passed by the D-backs (88-74) because New York owns the tiebreaker. Meanwhile, the Braves (88-72) would be unable to be passed by the D-backs because they own the tiebreaker over Arizona as well.
If the above plays out, Monday’s games would be needed for seeding only. Specifically, they would be to determine who gets the No. 5 seed and who gets the No. 6 seed. In that scenario, it will be up to the Commissioner to determine whether to play.
The remaining schedules
The Mets and Braves both have three games left, while the Diamondbacks have just one game remaining.
Here’s how it plays out:
Mets: 1 at Brewers (Sunday), 2 at Braves (Monday)
Braves: 1 vs. Royals (Sunday), 2 vs. Mets (Monday)
D-backs: 1 vs. Padres (Sunday)