Patriots vs. Dolphins preview: These key matchups will decide outcome originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
FOXBORO — Late in the week, a line from team reporter Evan Lazar on the Catch-22 podcast caught fire. The Patriots are “teetering on a mutiny,” Lazar said, after back-to-back ugly losses.
Lazar later went on 98.5 The Sports Hub to say he’d erred in his use of the word “mutiny.” Players pushed back strongly against that idea in the locker room, too. Buy-in for Jerod Mayo isn’t at this point a concern for the head coach, he said on Friday.
But that doesn’t mean things are picturesque for a team that has struggled both offensively and defensively lately.
“It’s always frustrating when you’re not winning,” Mayo said. “The guys put a lot of work in, and everyone wants to try to find a solution right now while we’re going through this transition. People are definitely frustrated, and that’s a normal human response. I feel pretty good about the way that we’re going.
“I used an analogy this morning. It’s almost like flying through the clouds, but you have to use the instruments until you get to clear skies. When I took this job, I knew the lumps would come. It’s part of the transition.”
This week’s game against the scuffling Tua Tagovailoa-less Dolphins represents the ultimate “get-right” opportunity. Take care of business, and discussions of buy-in, culture and “mutiny” get put on hold. Don’t? Questions will linger.
Let’s get to the matchups that will matter most on Sunday at Gillette Stadium…
Matchup that will determine the outcome
Patriots offensive line vs. Dolphins front four
It’s unclear who the Patriots are going to have available to them to play in the trenches on Sunday. Bad as it has been for them up front — they’re last in the league with a quarterback pressure rate of 47.4 percent, and they’re 30th with a time-to-pressure figure of 2.42 seconds — it could conceivably get worse.
David Andrews is out, but his primary backup Nick Leverett is questionable with an ankle injury. Practice squad center Bryan Hudson saw significant first-team reps during the week.
Meanwhile, tackle and guard are unsettled as well.
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Starting right guard Layden Robinson is questionable with wrist and ankle issues, meaning right tackle Mike Onwenu could kick inside. That would leave an opening at right tackle to be filled. The Patriots could also use guards Sidy Sow and Michael Jordan to play alongside whichever pivot the Patriots choose to play at center.
At tackle, Vederian Lowe is questionable with a knee injury, but he could get back onto the field after missing the last two weeks with a knee issue. Demontrey Jacobs made his first NFL start in Week 4 and could be back on the field starting again versus the Dolphins.
It’s not pretty. And how the line holds up will be critical to the outcome.
Miami has, for the most part this season, been able to generate pressure against better lines with just four pass-rushers. They have the second-best pressure rate in the NFL when rushing four. They lost Jaelan Phillips — arguably their most talented pass-rusher — to a torn ACL last week, but they have plenty of contributors to get after quarterbacks. Their leaders in pressures this season are veterans Calais Campbell and Zach Sieler. They also have a first-round pick, Chop Robinson, who brings plenty of explosiveness to the table to try to bother Jacoby Brissett.
The Patriots have had issues protecting against one-on-one rushers and blitzes alike. If they can’t get things cleaned up in that regard on Sunday, they could lose what looks like the most winnable game in this upcoming series of winnable games on their schedule.
Matchup that will surprise you
Tyler Huntley vs. Patriots “trap rush”
There’s a bit of a push-pull that needs to happen when the Patriots are trying to execute what they call their “trap rush.” On the one hand, they’d like to harass the opposing quarterback. On the other, they know they need to maintain rush-lane integrity and keep said quarterback in the pocket until they methodically collapse the pocket.
It’s the kind of rush that’s been described before as a “crush rush.” Players have to temper their instinct as pass-rushers, dialing back so as not to tear up the field and leave an escape lane in their wake. It’s not easy, but it’s required.
The problem for the Patriots is that it’s been required of them the last three weeks, and they haven’t been able to carry out their duties in that regard consistently enough. Dolphins quarterback Tyler Huntley won’t be able to harm the Patriots in the same ways that Geno Smith, Aaron Rodgers and Brock Purdy did. But Huntley, if given time and space, has the ability to generate positive plays.
Purdy had more time to throw in Week 4 against the Patriots than any other quarterback, per NextGen Stats, averaging 3.47 seconds between snap and throw. If the Patriots allow Huntley to extend plays and get outside the pocket this weekend, they may not like the results.
First, his weapons — Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle — are among the most dangerous scramble-drill threats in the NFL. Second, Huntley showed in his four starts in 2022, taking over for Lamar Jackson in Baltimore, that he could make some plays on the move. Among qualifying quarterbacks that season, on passes made from outside the pocket, he was eighth in yards per attempt and ninth in his percentage of plays that generated positive EPA.
You’re likely not expecting Huntley to make plays in the passing game. And you’re not wrong to expect things to play out that way. Huntley averaged 4.4 yards per attempt last week against the Titans and mustered a paltry QBR figure of just 12.1.
But if the Patriots don’t contain him, he may just surprise you. In a “didn’t think that guy was going to ruin my weekend!” kind of way.
Matchup that will take years off your life
Dolphins speed vs. Patriots coverage
Last week, Huntley missed a wide-open Hill late in the third quarter deep down the field for a game-changing touchdown. He likely won’t hit on every opportunity the speed demons at his disposal — including running back De’Von Achane — present to him. But as long as that speed is on the field, it has to be a concern for the Patriots.
Though the secondary may be the most talented unit in the Patriots locker room, right now their defense ranks 26th in EPA per dropback and 27th in dropback success rate. They’re allowing the 12th-most yards per pass attempt on throws that travel 20 yards or more beyond the line of scrimmage, and they’ve given up a quarterback rating of 103.0 on those types of throws, per Sports Info Solutions.
Until the Patriots solve some of the issues with their down-the-field defense, facing HIll and Waddle should serve as a nerve-wracking proposition — no matter who’s playing quarterback. Given the way the Patriots offense is performing, all Miami would need to do Sunday would be hit one deep-shot completion and it could alter the outcome.