Monday, December 16, 2024

Week 5 Wrap: Should fantasy football managers be worried about Marvin Harrison Jr.?

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Kyler Murray had a 50-yard touchdown run (the longest of his career) during Arizona’s opening drive, putting up big fantasy stats despite another quiet passing game. Murray’s run was the fastest by a quarterback over the last eight seasons, but six of his eight TDs this season have come during scripted plays on opening drives. Murray hasn’t gotten better than 6.5 YPA and is averaging just 176.5 passing yards when not facing the Rams this season. Murray also missed an open Michael Wilson deep downfield late, although he made a terrific fourth-down throw under pressure to help win the game two plays later. Ultimately, the Cardinals got the upset during the hottest game in Levi’s Stadium history, and it’s encouraging Murray recorded a season-high seven rush attempts.

Marvin Harrison Jr. was missing throughout the game and is suffering from Murray’s passing struggles. MHJ also saw Trey McBride lead Arizona in targets during his return. Harrison Jr. hasn’t recorded more than five catches in any game yet, and he’s reached 65 yards just once. It’s not the type of production fantasy managers were expecting.

Brock Purdy had 27 dropbacks in the first half while facing what had been a run-funnel Cardinals defense, but he didn’t show his usual efficiency (7.1 YPA). The 49ers struggled in the red zone and also scored a special teams touchdown, which is never a positive for QB production. Purdy at least finally got in sync with Brandon Aiyuk, who had 91 yards in the first quarter and nearly matched his season yardage total Sunday. Aiyuk and George Kittle each saw 12 targets, which is more than either saw in a game last season. Meanwhile, Deebo Samuel saw just three, as someone will often be left out when San Francisco’s pass catchers are healthy.

Jordan Mason has the most rushing yards through five games in franchise history, but he lost a crucial fumble late in the red zone and blew a block that led to Purdy’s game-ending interception the following drive. It was his first career lost fumble, and Mason got 6.4 YPC with an angry fourth-quarter run. He remains a top-five fantasy back as long as Christian McCaffrey is sidelined.

• Jake Moody left injured in the second quarter, which led to San Francisco going for it on a fourth-and-23 in the third quarter instead of attempting a field goal.

• The 49ers had been 38-0 under Kyle Shanahan when leading by 10 points or more entering the fourth quarter.

• Lamar Jackson had a season-high 42 pass attempts and added 12 carries in a monster fantasy performance. Jackson improved to 9-1 versus the Bengals during his career.

• Derrick Henry scored his 100th career touchdown during the opening drive but was quiet after until a big 51-yard run in overtime. Henry later said he would’ve scored had he known a defender was behind him.

• Mark Andrews recorded his first catch since Week 2 and finished with a season-high 55 receiving yards. But he also saw Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar score all three touchdowns from the tight end position. Kolar had more yards, but it was a baby step in the right direction for Andrews.

• Joe Burrow erupted for a career-high five TD passes while throwing for nearly 400 yards. The Bengals fell just short during the highest-scoring game in the history of this matchup, but it wasn’t Burrow’s fault. He looks fully healthy.

• Ja’Marr Chase exploded for 193 yards and two touchdowns during fantasy’s top performance this week. Chase hadn’t seen more than seven targets in any game before Sunday, but he has five scores over the last three weeks anyway.

• Tee Higgins also scored twice and continues to see elite usage (14 targets) since returning.

• Chase Brown continued to impress and should be ranked ahead of Zack Moss moving forward.

• Trevor Lawrence got a career-high 10.9 YPA in arguably his best game ever (+11.4 CPOE). He ended his nine-start losing streak while throwing for 371 yards and two scores. Remarkably, Lawrence was barely a top-10 fantasy QB this week despite the big passing performance, as he didn’t contribute with his legs like so many others.

• Tank Bigsby had a sick third-quarter touchdown run and followed that with a 65-yard house call. Bigsby out-snapped Travis Etienne Jr. for the first time ever and looks like the most improved player in the league. Game script (and matchup) won’t always be so favorable, but Etienne saw more targets (seven) than rush attempts (six), so this backfield could be led by Bigbsy moving forward. He’s available in nearly 80% of Yahoo leagues.

• Brian Thomas Jr. hauled in an 85-yard touchdown, recording the fastest ballcarrier speed of 2024 in the process. BTJ has already emerged as Jacksonville’s top wideout, and the rookie has the third-highest yards per route run mark over his first five games since at least 2000. Thomas Jr. should be treated as a top-20 fantasy WR moving forward.

• Joe Flacco was a top-five fantasy QB, and he now has an NFL-high seven straight games with multiple TD passes. The Colts were actually having a quiet day on offense before erupting for 24 points in the fourth quarter. Indianapolis lost to the only remaining winless team in football, but it was hardly Flacco’s fault. He’ll return to the bench when Anthony Richardson is healthy, but Shane Steichen has an alternative.

• Michael Pittman Jr. caught a short TD early, but Josh Downs was Flacco’s favorite target throughout the day yet again. Downs looks like Indy’s WR1 (and a top 25 PPR WR) when Flacco plays.

• Alec Pierce was quiet until exploding in the final five minutes. He first pulled down an incredible catch on the sideline, followed by a 46-yard reception in which he was tackled at the 1. Pierce would record a 65-yard touchdown during the next drive, scoring 18.1 fantasy points in two minutes of game time. Flacco mostly fed Downs underneath but also proved he could use Pierce deep Sunday.

Come for the double pass, stay for the truck stick.

• Nico Collins caught an early 67-yard touchdown but wouldn’t return after thanks to a hamstring injury. Collins remains on pace to record 1,928 receiving yards this season despite missing three quarters Sunday. There’s optimism his injury will be short-term.

• C.J. Stroud had a tough fourth quarter; he was picked off, lost a fumble and had an intentional grounding penalty that took Houston out of field goal range with 50 seconds left. Still, the Texans ultimately won, and Stroud got 8.7 YPA (which is what he’s averaged at home throughout his career).

• Dare Ogunbowale started and led the Texans’ backfield in opportunities (22). But he managed just 2.0 YPC, and Cam Akers scored his first rushing touchdown with Houston. Joe Mixon can’t return soon enough.

• Josh Allen had one of the worst games of his career, completing just 9-of-30 passes for 131 yards (4.4 YPA). His completion percentage over expectation (-27.2) was in the first percentile. Allen was lucky a second-quarter pass wasn’t easily intercepted, and he also couldn’t connect with a wide-open Mack Hollins for a 59-yard TD. Allen appeared to really miss Khalil Shakir and finished 1-of-14 when pressured. He also appeared knocked out with six minutes left but missed just one snap (it would have been none if not for a Houston turnover) after getting cleared of an “ankle” injury. Rough day for Allen, but he’ll obviously bounce back.

• No Buffalo pass catcher stepped up with Shakir sidelined, although rookie Keon Coleman had a long touchdown catch on fourth down.

• D’Andre Swift was a top-three fantasy back for the second straight week, and his day could’ve been much bigger. He had a touchdown run nullified by an illegal shift penalty and was tackled at the one-yard line two separate times only to watch Roschon Johnson punch in the scores. Swift has benefitted from back-to-back highly favorable matchups and is ceding goal-line work, so he could be seen as a sell-high candidate. But he’s also looked great and will eventually stop getting tackled at the 1 (a problem throughout last season) on an offense that should continue to get better.

• DJ Moore had two TD catches by halftime in a sweet revenge game.

• Caleb Williams is clearly improving. His opponent helped Sunday (the Panthers entered with the league’s lowest pressure rate), but Williams got 10.5 YPA after failing to eclipse 7.0 in any previous game. He was nearly a top-five fantasy QB this week while also having a TD run called back by penalty.

• Chuba Hubbard had the longest run of his career on the opening drive, but game script killed his volume.

• Give Diontae Johnson a pass in this tough matchup.

• Daniel Jones played great while missing his WR1 and RB1 in a tough environment. He had a season-high 11 carries, and hopefully, Jones keeps running more the further removed from knee surgery he gets.

• Tyrone Tracy Jr. ran for an NFL-high 129 rushing yards this week while replacing Devin Singletary. Tracy Jr. saw 20 opportunities, while Eric Gray saw eight and lost a fumble. Tracy Jr. was highly impressive, and he’d be a strong RB2 as long as Singletary is out.

• Kenneth Walker III was held to just 19 rushing yards one week after finishing as fantasy’s RB2. A bunch of dump-offs in the fourth quarter saved his fantasy day in PPR leagues, but game script didn’t go as expected for the near-touchdown-favorite Seahawks on Sunday. Seattle had the ball just eight minutes in the first half.

• DK Metcalf lost a fumble for the second straight week and had fewer receiving yards than Walker.

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught his first TD of the season, but he’s reached 55 receiving yards just once this season despite the much-improved offensive environment.

• Seattle had a 101-yard defensive score but also had a game-tying field goal attempt blocked and returned for a late touchdown.

• Jordan Love (-12.4 CPOE) hasn’t been at his best while playing through a knee injury, including choosing a pick-six over a safety Sunday. He’ll likely improve as his health does.

• Josh Jacobs dominated Green Bay’s backfield work and scored his first touchdown of the season.

• Tucker Kraft had two third-quarter touchdown catches, including a 66-yarder with a stiff arm. He’s emerged as an easy top 10 tight end option in this economy.

• Dontayvion Wicks was a fantasy bust, but he saw seven targets and will be worth starting against the Cardinals in Week 6 should Christian Watson remain out.

• Xavier McKinney recorded two more takeaways and became the first player in NFL history to have an interception in each of the first five games with his new team.

Kyren Williams picked up his first 100-yard rushing game of the season. He has an NFL-high eight straight games with a rushing score and 22 touchdowns over his last 17 contests. Moreover, Blake Corum was stuffed at the 1-yard line on back-to-back plays before Williams replaced him and scored in the second quarter.

• Jordan Whittington, Tutu Atwell and Colby Parkinson combined for 33 targets … that went for just 199 scoreless yards combined.

• Dak Prescott threw for 352 yards and the game-winning touchdown with 20 seconds left on fourth down. He hadn’t thrown for even 225 yards in a road game this season, but Prescott had a big performance Sunday night in Pittsburgh.

• Rico Dowdle finished as the RB3 this week against a Steelers defense that entered allowing the second fewest fantasy points to running backs this season. He nearly lost a fumble at the goal line toward the end of the game, but Dallas recovered. Dowdle has emerged as the Cowboys’ clear RB1, and he gets another tough run defense (Detroit) next week.

• Jalen Tolbert caught the winning score and led Dallas with 10 targets. CeeDee Lamb was quiet after the first quarter and voiced his displeasure on the sideline to Prescott.

• Justin Fields managed just 4.7 YPA, while Najee Harris and George Pickens were fantasy busts against a Dallas defense missing Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence.

Aaron Jones racked up 53 yards from scrimmage on eight touches before leaving late in the first quarter with a hip injury. Ty Chandler is unquestionably a downgrade in talent, but he saw strong usage after Jones left and is a top priority on waiver wires this week. Minnesota has an upcoming bye, but Chandler can be a top-12 fantasy back in this offense if Jones is out. He’s available in more than 70% of Yahoo leagues.

• Aaron Rodgers finished with a minuscule 4.5 YPA and was intercepted a career-high three times, including a pick-six. Rodgers still has the lowest pick-six rate in NFL history by a wide margin, but he took another beating Sunday. The Jets’ tough schedule continues over the next few weeks.

• Breece Hall was a fantasy bust again. The good news is he still saw strong utilization and was facing a tough Vikings run defense that entered allowing just 62.3 RB rushing yards per game. This is a Jets problem, not an issue with Hall. New York has a bottom-barrel run-blocking O line, and Rodgers refuses to use motion in a predictable offense (that either runs or throws over the middle). Braelon Allen was stuffed on back-to-back short third- and fourth-down runs and also dropped a pass, but he replaced Hall at the goal line during Rodgers’ one-yard TD pass to Garrett Wilson late in the fourth quarter. New York will face easier opponents and won’t always abandon the run like Sunday, but Hall’s fantasy managers are losing patience.

• Wilson benefitted greatly from facing a Minnesota defense with the league’s highest opposing pass rate, seeing a whopping 22 targets. Now hopefully Davante Adams isn’t traded to New York.

• Jayden Daniels got 9.5 YPA and led Washington with 82 rushing yards against a Jim Schwartz defense that’s historically been tough on rookie QBs. Daniels’ fantasy day could’ve been bigger if not for the lopsided score; he only needed 25 pass attempts before giving way to Marcus Mariota for the entire fourth quarter.

• Brian Robinson Jr. had two touchdowns by halftime but saw just seven touches. Daniels, Austin Ekeler and Jeremy McNichols combined for 24 carries, and the latter executed a goal-line score. Robinson entered tending to a knee injury, and Washington led 24-3 at halftime, which likely contributed to his lesser workload. Robinson is on pace for 17 rushing TDs this season.

• Deshaun Watson got 4.5 YPA against a Washington defense that entered allowing the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. He’s taken 18 sacks and lost three fumbles over the last three games. Watson has the lowest EPA/dropback for any Browns QB in Weeks 1-5 since at least 2000. He hasn’t eclipsed 5.5 YPA in any game. The Browns entered as the only team without 300 yards of offense in a game this season. Cleveland totaled 212 yards Sunday against a struggling Washington defense that’s yet to record an interception this year. Watson is unplayable.

• Amari Cooper’s season of almost scoring touchdowns continued when he was tackled at the two-yard line after a third-quarter catch.

• Javonte Williams led Denver in rushing and receiving but lost a goal-line score to Bo Nix (after being tackled at the one) and a TD catch to Jaleel McLaughlin.

• The Broncos won once again thanks mostly to defense, as Patrick Surtain II recorded two interceptions, including a 100-yard pick-six. Surtain has a strong argument as Defensive Player of the Year so far.

• Troy Franklin dropped a wide-open 45-yard touchdown late in the third quarter.

• Denver set a franchise record with 11 different players making a catch, which isn’t exactly fantasy-friendly.

• Gardner Minshew connected with Brock Bowers for a long touchdown but was benched for Aidan O’Connell in the fourth quarter. AO’C was much worse.

• Bowers saw 12 targets and has the potential to be the top fantasy tight end (at least until Rich Russo debuts) moving forward with Davante Adams unlikely to play another snap for Las Vegas. Jakobi Meyers also gets a huge fantasy boost that was hidden this week thanks to the Surtain matchup.

• Ameer Abdullah formed a committee with Alexander Mattison with Zamir White out. It’s the worst backfield situation in the league.

• De’Von Achane left with a concussion late in the first quarter. Raheem Mostert saw 21 opportunities during his return, but Jaylen Wright was Miami’s most impressive back Sunday. The rookie got 6.6 YPC and would make serious noise (if/when Tua Tagovailoa returns) should he be given the opportunity.

• Rhamondre Stevenson was benched for New England’s first drive but scored a 33-yard touchdown during his second carry on the Patriots’ next possession. He started the second half and at one point had 76 rushing yards while the rest of New England had 77 total yards. Stevenson’s role was similar to the last two weeks but with less passing-down work. Stevenson finished as a top-three back this week and would be a fantasy beast on a different team, but realize he benefitted from an unusually positive game script Sunday.

• It remains unclear why a late Ja’Lynn Polk touchdown catch was overturned.

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