NBA general managers expect the Boston Celtics to repeat as NBA champions and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win his first MVP award.
Those are pretty safe choices, but that is the norm for the annual NBA GM survey, which is now out (credit to NBA.com’s John Schuhmann for assembling the list). Be careful using it for predictions, the GMs are wrong more than you might expect, but it’s a great snapshot of the conventional wisdom around the league. Here are a few of the highlights.
• Boston Celtics to repeat as champions. Boston won the title last year and is bringing back its top seven players, so it’s not a shock the Celtics got 83% of the GM’s votes to repeat as NBA champions. The Oklahoma City Thunder got 13% and the Dallas Mavericks just 3%. No GM was willing to name the Knicks or 76ers to topple the Celtics.
• Celtics to earn top seed in East. Boston lapped the field last regular season, so it’s fair to think they can do it again (even if Kristaps Porzingins is out until around Christmas). The predicted top six in the East (in order): Celtics, Knicks, 76ers, Cavaliers, Bucks, Magic.
• Thunder to earn top seed in West. Oklahoma City was the surprising top seed a season ago then upgraded this offseason with Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein, meaning this choice was not a shock. The predicted top six in the West (in order): Thunder, Timberwolves, Nuggets, Mavericks, Suns, Grizzlies.
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win MVP. SGA finished second in the voting a year ago and will be the head of the snake on a Thunder team projected to come out of the West, making him a logical choice to win the award. Luka Doncic finished a close second in the voting, then there was a drop off to a tie between Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic and Jayson Tatum. This is one GM vote that tends to be predictive, as evidenced by Nikola Jokic being the choice a season ago.
• Victor Wembanyama player vast majority of GMs would sign if starting a franchise today. This kind of seems like a no brainer, and the surprise isn’t Wemby getting 77% of the vote, it’s that 33% went another direction. Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic each got 10% of the vote to tie for second.
• Luka Doncic is the player that forces the most coaching adjustments. This turns into a great list of players who break the mold, don’t always fit within NBA conventions, and force coaches to make changes — and a 6’8″ pick-and-roll wizard with elite passing skills and the ability to score at every level will do that. The voting on this one was close: Doncic received 33%, Stephen Curry 30%, and Nikola Jokic 23%. The challenge is there is no good coaching adjustment to slow those three.
• Oklahoma City had the best offseason. While a lot of fans leaned towards Philadelphia in this vote, league GMs applauded the two perfect, less splashy moves by the Thunder of bringing in Caruso and Hartenstein — two players who fill specific needs on this roster. Philly did come in second in the GM voting, with the Knicks third.
• Karl-Anthony Towns to the Knicks is the most surprising move of the offseason. Since this trade stunned Towns himself, it shouldn’t be a surprise it won this vote from league GMS. Paul George to Philadelphia was second (and George was voted acquisition likely to make the biggest impact), with DeMar DeRozan to the Sacramento Kings third and Mikal Bridges to the Knicks fourth.
• Rockets Reed Sheppard to win Rookie of the Year. Summer League standout Reed Sheppard won the GM vote, with the Grizzlies’ Zach Edey second (he’s going to start and get more run than most rookies), and Stephon Castle of the Spurs was third. Sheppard also won the vote for which player from this class would be the best in five years, with Castle second.
• Victor Wembanyama named best defensive player in NBA. He’s only entering his second season but Wembanyama is such a force on the defensive end he’s already getting this vote and is the betting favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year. The GMs did vote for Boston’s Jrue Holiday as the best perimeter defender in the league. The GMs also voted Giannis Antetokounmpo the most versatile defender in the league.
• Erik Spoelstra was voted the best coach in the NBA. This is becoming an annual tradition, and Spo got 69% of the vote this season. Spoelstra was also voted the best motivator of people by the GMs. The Thunder’s Mark Daigneault was second on the coaching list, with Steve Kerr third.
• Indiana Pacers voted the most fun team to watch. Everyone likes uptempo basketball, at least for entertainment value. Second on that list was the Thunder, followed by a third-place tie between the Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets.
• Los Angeles Lakers voted the toughest team to predict. The Lakers have two of the four best players from Team USA’s gold medal winning squad at the Paris Olympics, but there’s a healthy drop off to the next players on the team, not much depth and plenty of health questions. The Lakers could make the top six and avoid the play-in or miss the postseason altogether and GMs weren’t sure what to do with them. Next on this list was a second-place tie between the Houston Rockets and New Orleans Pelicans, with the Phoenix Suns fourth.