Milton remains a ‘catastrophic’ Category 4 hurricane and is forecast to make landfall on the Florida Gulf Coast late Wednesday night. Despite some fluctuations in intensity, Milton will remain a dangerous and major hurricane at landfall, the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) warns.
“On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida late tonight or early Thursday morning, and move off the east coast of Florida over the western Atlantic Ocean Thursday afternoon,” said the NHC in its Wednesday morning update.
While no direct hit is expected for Canada’s East Coast, the life-threatening impacts across Florida could be devastating, as the storm stays on a collision course for the Tampa Bay metropolitan area.
DON’T MISS: Nightmare scenario unfolding for Tampa with Milton’s potential hurricane track
More than one million people in coastal areas are under evacuation orders, with the region still reeling from the widespread destruction of Hurricane Helene just two weeks ago. Officials have called this the largest evacuation for the area since 2017 when Hurricane Irma hit, putting major strain on highways as residents flee, and leaving several gas stations without any fuel left.
Keep up-to-date with the latest Hurricane Milton developments by visiting The Weather Network’s hurricane hub.
Current strength and track
Widespread hurricane and storm surge warnings line Florida’s coastal regions. Milton reclaimed Category 5 hurricane status on Tuesday, and the storm maintained maximum sustained winds of 260 km/h early Wednesday. Winds slightly decreased to 250 km/h by mid-morning, with the storm sitting back as a Category 4 storm.
Thanks to extremely warm sea surface temperatures, Milton quickly became one of the fastest, intensifying storms on record in the Atlantic Ocean, surging from a tropical depression to a dangerous Category 5 hurricane in just 49 hours. It is also the strongest storm on our planet for 2024 so far, beating out Hurricane Beryl in July.
A northeastward motion with some increase in forward speed is forecast through Wednesday night, with landfall expected between Tampa and Sarasota Wednesday overnight, though the exact path could vary. Tampa Mayor Jane Castor warned people in evacuation zones to “get out or risk death.”
Milton is likely to maintain Category 4 storm status at landfall, with winds of at least 210 km/h.
WATCH: N.S. crews headed to Florida for Hurricane Milton
Current alerts in Florida
A storm surge warning is in effect for Florida’s west coast from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay. It’s also in effect for the east coast of Florida, from Port Canaveral northward to the mouth of the St. Mary’s River, including the St. Johns River. As well, it has been extended southward to Sebastian Inlet, Florida, and northward to Altamaha Sound, Ga.
The hurricane warning has been issued from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay, as well as from the Indian River-St. Lucie County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach, and extended southward to the St. Lucie/Martin County Line.
RELATED: Why Florida’s west coast is so vulnerable to storm surge flooding
Impacts: Winds, life-threatening flash flooding and storm surge
Powerful winds in the core of the hurricane will cause significant damage near the point of landfall. Damage to homes and businesses is likely, along with long-lasting power outages in the hardest-hit communities. Power outages are expected to last for days in the storm’s wake.
Many communities throughout Florida could see 150-300+ mm of rain during this event. Some localized areas could even see up to 450 mm. Between 200-300 mm is expected for both Tampa and Orlando, while areas south of the track could still pick up 100-150 mm of tropical rain.
“This rainfall brings the risk of catastrophic, and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding,” the NHC warns.
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A life-threatening storm surge is likely where the hurricane makes landfall. Florida’s western coast is exceptionally vulnerable to storm surge flooding.
Even if the eye of the storm skirts the Tampa Bay area, Milton’s storm surge will still be a very dangerous situation for the region. It will be the most life-threatening part of the storm as high waves funnel into narrow bays.
In Tampa Bay, water heights could reach 3-4.5+ metres above ground. That’s more than a single-story home. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
As with any landfalling tropical system, tornadoes will also pose a threat to the Florida Peninsula as Milton makes landfall this week.
Stay alert for tornado watches and warnings throughout the state. Tropical tornadoes can happen quickly with reduced tornado warning lead time.
A major hurricane hasn’t directly hit the Tampa Bay area in living memory. The last major hurricane to strike the region occurred back in 1921.
Milton will be an extraordinarily high-impact, life-threatening, if not, a catastrophic event, with a far-reaching power outage potential, that in hardest hit areas will take months to clean up, or years to rebuild. According to RBC analysts, Hurricane Milton could cost insurers $60 billion.
WATCH: Florida residents prepare as Hurricane Milton landfall looms
With files from Reuters.