The NFL is once again gifting us with a major divisional matchup on Thursday Night Football as the 2-3 49ers travel to Seattle to face the 3-2 Seahawks. There are plenty of big fantasy football names on both sides of the scoreboard, so let’s get to what we should be looking out for in this matchup.
The tale of a quarterback (who deserves better)
Geno Smith currently ranks fifth amongst quarterbacks in fantasy points. He only has five passing touchdowns, but he leads the league in passing yards and is seventh in rushing yards at the position. Smith also leads the league in completions, attempts and is tied for third in completion percentage amongst QBs with 130+ attempts.
But again, Smith only has five passing touchdowns — one every week, good to be tied for seventh-highest in the league.
I don’t know about you, but something ain’t adding up.
This is a situation that screams bad luck to me. Not only has Smith had to watch multiple completed passes to receivers only for them to get tackled at the 1-yard line, but Kenneth Walker III has been outlandishly efficient at scoring end-zone and red-zone touchdowns this season; 67% of the Seahawks touchdowns through four weeks came on the ground!
Simply put, the Seahawks have made it look easy scoring on the ground while making it look incredibly difficult via the air. Things will balance out, maybe as soon as this game.
It doesn’t seem right that a dude who’s throwing with such frequency and efficiency as Smith has still doesn’t have a multi-passing-touchdown game this season.
The Seahawks might find themselves chasing the scoreboard two weeks in a row. For them to come out on top this time around, they’ll need to score through the air as well as on the ground. Make sure to watch Smith’s work in the red zone closely in this game.
Will this be the monster Jordan Mason game?
Ever since Jordan Mason was elevated to starting RB for the 49ers, we have been waiting for the massive performance reminiscent of the guy he replaced. So far, Mason has balanced two great fantasy games (Weeks 1 and 4) with a good game (Week 2) and two subpar games (Weeks 3 and 5). To his credit, Mason is fifth in total running back fantasy points and second in the league in rushing yards.
But we’re still waiting for that 100-yard, three-touchdown game. Maybe we’re spoiled by what we usually get from Kyle Shanahan-crafted running attacks. Regardless, Mason has been great, just not the week-winner we expected.
The main thing holding Mason back from that ceiling has been his receiving work. He has just seven catches on eight targets this season, with no touchdowns, good for 40th among RBs this season. By comparison, Alvin Kamara has 23 catches on 28 targets and a receiving score. Mason just hasn’t been a priority in the passing game this season, even though Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and, of course, CMC have missed time with injuries.
But perhaps we see a little bit more of Mason in all facets of the game this week. Shanahan and the 49ers undoubtedly saw what the star Lions’ RBs did to the Seahawks in Week 4. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs combined for 158 total yards and three total touchdowns against Seattle. Sure, most of that damage was done on the ground (Monty did produce 40 yards on one catch in that game), but the running game was one of the engines behind the Lions’ 42-point outburst.
Not to mention, the 49ers are coming off a loss against another division rival in which Mason received just 15 touches, while Purdy threw the ball 35 times. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Shanahan return to his bread-and-butter to right the ship in this game. Mason to score multiple times on TNF sounds like a good prop to chase for me.
Vintage Brandon Aiyuk was on display in Week 5 … but don’t expect a repeat performance
We all knew Brandon Aiyuk would take some time to get ramped up. It all came together last week against the division-rival Cardinals, with Aiyuk catching eight passes for a whopping 147 yards. He could’ve had an even bigger game if Purdy hadn’t missed him a few times. Regardless, it was a welcome development and performance for one of the better wide receivers in the league.
But banking on a repeat might be asking for too much.
After starting the season off with some solid defensive performances against outside receivers, the Seahawks’ stop unit has started to show some chinks in the armor, most recently to Darius Slayton of all people, who dropped eight catches for 122 yards and a touchdown against them. Prior to this unexpected performance, Seattle’s secondary hadn’t allowed a single receiver to surpass 80 yards against them (and Jameson Williams got to 80 while being limited to two catches). Unfortunately for that unit, they will be without cornerback Riq Woolen (ankle) for TNF. They could also be without safety Julian Love (hamstring), who is questionable after logging limited practices this week, noted as a game-time decision by HC Mike Macdonald.
Regardless, Macdonald’s defense has been solid at limiting perimeter receiver production this season, and that should continue in Week 6. As mentioned, I see this being a big Jordan Mason game, but don’t be surprised if George Kittle and Deebo Samuel wreaking havoc up the middle have bigger outings than Aiyuk.