Thomas Tuchel has been installed as the favourite by a handful of betting sites to take over as permanent England manager after interim coach Lee Carsley saw his side lose 2-1 to Greece on Thursday.
Carsley was previously the clear favourite to succeed Gareth Southgate on a full-time basis following a great start to life in the role with William Hill making him as short as 1/6 at the start of the week. Stylish wins over the Republic of Ireland and Finland made Carsley an obvious choice, but the defeat to Greece was extremely poor and has now seen his price drift.
Tuchel, who also continues to be linked to replace Erik ten Hag as Manchester United manager, has seen his odds cut dramatically by several football betting sites, including bet365 and William Hill. Several other firms have kept Carsley at the top of the market, but the gap between him and Tuchel has significantly shrunk.
Carsley is preparing the side to face Finland on Sunday, but has expressed his desire to return to managing the Under-21s once his interim spell is done.
“My remit has been clear from the start,” he told reporters, per GiveMeSport. “I’m doing three camps. There’s three games left and then hopefully I’ll be going back to the [Under] 21s. So it’s [the result] almost had no impact.”
Next England manager betting odds
A tightening pool now sees Tuchel and Carsley clear of the field, with Pep Guardiola, Graham Potter and Eddie Howe next in line before a huge jump up to Frank Lampard on most betting apps. Tuchel, Potter and Lampard remain jobless as England plan for a future without Southgate’s pragmatism.
Next England manager odds: Carsley’s slip is Tuchel’s gain
Carsley was the talk of the town heading into the Greece match. England performed brilliantly in his previous two games and looked free of the reins Southgate was so often criticised for. The interim boss came with interesting ideas; namely playing Jack Grealish in the 10 role as the Three Lions romped to entertaining wins.
Greece completely flipped the momentum. Ollie Watkins was expected to deputise for the injured Harry Kane up front in a like-for-like switch. However, Carsley opted to go without a striker and cram his side with the creative talents of Cole Palmer, Jude Bellingham, Phil Foden, Anthony Gordon and Bukayo Saka. The balance never worked; Declan Rice was outnumbered in midfield and the creative sparks rarely received the ball in dangerous positions.
Even worse than that, England’s defence was completely exposed. Greece are an intelligent side with quality across the pitch, but they needn’t show anything other than gut-busting energy to break through with two goals that counted and multiple goals ruled out by VAR. Like the scales of judgement upon which Carsley’s future sits, the goodwill shifted.
Tuchel remains out of work after leaving Bayern Munich earlier this year. He is a manager driven by tactical prowess, a problem solver who is used to balancing teams in big matches more than Carsley is.
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the German employ similar foundations to the Greece match, but with greater control and emphasis on the full-backs starting attacking moves. Tuchel isn’t a manager who leaves his defence open and has utilised holding midfielders close to his defenders throughout club management. He also isn’t worried about changing things up if it isn’t working, which took Carsley too long on Thursday night.
The decision makers at the FA have a tough task on their hands to replace Southgate in the long term. A comfortable win against Finland could shift the odds back into Carsley’s favour.
Bookmakers have the next appointment as a close-run thing, but with two clear favourites who stand out from the rest at an important juncture for the national team.
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