Monday, December 16, 2024

Getting Defensive: 2024 Week 7

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Back in the 1960s and 1970s, the Minnesota Vikings fielded “The Purple People Eaters”— a formidable defensive front of Alan Page, Carl Eller, Jim Marshall, Gary Larsen and Doug Sutherland that helped the Vikings make it to multiple Super Bowls and put two players in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Now, the 2024 Vikings defense is not that good – as a matter of fact, Minnesota has the worst pass defense in the NFC. But fantasy success on defense is all about making big plays, and the Vikings have made plenty of those – including two pick-sixes from edge-rusher Andrew Van Ginkel. And despite having already had their bye week, the Vikings are the highest-scoring defense in fantasy.

The Vikings have gone from waiver fodder to every-week starter. Not only have they been productive, but they have been consistent – double-digit fantasy points in all five games. Now, with Minnesota’s bye in the rearview mirror, fantasy managers are eager to fire the new-look Purple People Eaters up.

Except they shouldn’t until Week 8.

Speaking of blasts from the pasts, after dropping 47 points on the Cowboys last week in Dallas, the Detroit Lions have scored over 40 points in back-to-back games for the first time since 1962. The Lions are third in the NFL in total offense and are the only team in the National Football League averaging over 30 points per game. Among NFC teams, only the Washington Commanders are allowing fewer fantasy points per game to defenses this season.

Caveat Emptor doesn’t really cover it with the Vikes in Week 7.

THE NO-DOUBTERS

Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. New York Jets)

The Steelers are 4-2 and tied for first place in the AFC North – and it isn’t because the offense is lighting up the scoreboard. Edge-rusher T.J. Watt seemingly makes multiple big plays every week, whether it’s sacking the quarterback, forcing a fumble or a combo platter of both. The Jekyll-and-Hyde Jets looked better Monday night than they have in recent weeks, but the offensive line has had some issues protecting Aaron Rodgers. The Jets entered Monday’s tilt with the Bills 10th in fantasy points per game allowed to defenses, and a primetime crowd in Pittsburgh should be good and riled up.

New York Jets (at Pittsburgh Steelers)

New York’s top-five defense in terms of yards allowed didn’t appear to suffer adversely from the surprising firing of Robert Saleh, although the mounting injuries in the secondary are cause for concern – or at least they would be if the Jets were taking on say Detroit. The Steelers may be winning, but the offense has been erratic, especially through the air. The Steelers are 25th in the league in total offense and 28th in passing, while the Jets rank inside the top-10 in total defense, pass defense and scoring defense.

Buffalo Bills (vs. Tennessee Titans)

The Buffalo defense has as much to do with the Bills being 4-2 as Josh Allen and the offense, and the return of players like cornerback Taron Johnson and linebacker Terrel Bernard have given a boost to the unit. But the real appeal here is a dismal Tennessee offense that ranks 31st in total offense. Will Levis has been a turnover machine under center for the Titans this year, and as a result no team allows more fantasy points per game to opposing defenses. This is a game with the potential to get out of hand, and a defensive score is a genuine possibility.

Denver Broncos (at New Orleans Saints)

The Denver Broncos had been playing excellent defense over the past month, although that defense backslid at home last week after cornerback Patrick Surtain II exited the game with a concussion. Still, even after that performance the Broncos remain fourth in the league in total defense, fourth in points allowed, lead the AFC in sacks with 22 and also lead the AFC in fantasy points among defenses. Rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler was uneven in his NFL debut last week, and over the past three weeks the Saints have allowed the third-most fantasy points to defenses.

Los Angeles Chargers (at Arizona Cardinals)

It has gone largely unnoticed (not even fans in Los Angeles care about the Chargers), but the Bolts are playing excellent defense under first-year coordinator Jesse Minter. The Chargers rank sixth in the league in total defense and rushing defense, eighth against the pass and allow fewer points per game than any team in the NFL. Throw in nine takeaways and 13 sacks and you have the ingredients for fantasy’s fifth-ranked defense in terms of points per game headed into a plus matchup with a Cardinals team that has been a top-five fantasy matchup for defenses over the past three weeks.

Philadelphia Eagles (at New York Giants)

Granted, much of Philadelphia’s defensive success last week can be attributed to their opponent – the Cleveland Browns are a disaster offensively. But the Eagles got the pass rush going last week to the tune of five sacks, and Cleveland’s only touchdown on the day came on a blocked field goal. The Giants have occasionally shown flashes of life on offense this season, but pass protection is once again an issue, the Giants managed just seven points last week against the Bengals and Big Blue is giving up the sixth-most fantasy points to defenses this season.

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STREAMERS OF THE WORLD, UNITE!

New Orleans Saints (vs. Denver Broncos)

It might appear a little odd to list a defense that just had a fifty-burger dropped on it by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a streaming option, but the Saints are just that in Week 7. The Saints are quietly a top-10 fantasy defense for the season, and even in last week’s blowout loss a Rashid Shaheed return touchdown salvaged a solid stat line for fantasy managers. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix has improved as the season has progressed, but he’s still a first-year quarterback who has thrown five interceptions this season – tied for third-most in the league.

Cincinnati Bengals (at Cleveland Clowns)

That’s right – I said it. The Clowns are back. The Browns are dead last in the National Football League in total offense. The Browns have yet to score 20 points in a game this season. The Browns have surrendered a staggering 31 sacks – eight more than any other team in the NFL. And in news that should surprise exactly no one, only the Tennessee Titans have given up more fantasy points to defenses this season. The Bengals are coming off easily their best defensive effort of the season, and that momentum should carry over to Week 7.

Las Vegas Raiders (at Los Angeles Rams)

The Raiders aren’t making it easy for fantasy managers to trust them – they have gotten waxed in successive weeks by first the Denver Broncos and then the Pittsburgh Steelers. But the Rams have been blasted by injuries along the offensive line and at wide receiver, and it’s the former that could come into play Sunday at SoFi Stadium. Maxx Crosby should log at least one sack this week, and the Rams have been generous in terms of fantasy points allowed to defenses this season, checking in ninth in that regard.

Washington Commanders (vs. Carolina)

It was bound to happen sooner or later – and last week in Baltimore the Commanders were exposed for what they essentially are. A bad defensive football team, albeit better than last year’s last-ranked unit. The loss of defensive tackle Jonathan Allen to a season-ending pectoral injury won’t help matters either. But Jayden Daniels and the Commanders’ offense are going to go bananas on Carolina’s non-existent defense, and that’s going to force a Panthers team allowing the third most fantasy points per game to defenses over the last month to take chances with the ball.

Los Angeles Rams (vs. Las Vegas Raiders)

Let’s just put this out there – the Rams have not played well defensively this season. They are one of six NFL teams that has allowed over 370 yards of offense per game, and Los Angeles is 29th in the league in scoring defense at 27.8 points per game. But as bad as the Rams are on defense, the Raiders are equally bad on offense. The Raiders can’t run the ball (79.5 yards per game – last in the AFC), the receivers are either injured, want to be traded or both, and Vegas has turned the ball over more than any team in the league.

Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. New England Patriots)

There isn’t a team in the NFL that wants a do-over on the 2024 season more than the Jaguars, and the defense bears some of the responsibility for their miserable season – Jacksonville has allowed more yards per game than any team in the AFC, their 29.7 points per game allowed is also dead last in the AFC, and only the Raiders and Panthers have fewer fantasy points among defenses. But this call is all about the opponent – the Patriots are rolling out a rookie quarterback making his second career start, and the Patriots have given up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses.

CAVEAT EMPTOR, FOLKS

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Baltimore Ravens)

Baker Mayfield is getting all the run (such a glory hog), but the Tampa defense is in the top-12 in fantasy points after a Week 6 performance that featured five sacks, three takeaways and a fumble return for a touchdown. That’s all well and good, and there will be weeks where Tampa will be a quality fantasy start. Week 7 ain’t one of them. The Baltimore Ravens are a buzzsaw offensively right now, with Derrick Henry’s power running and Lamar Jackson’s mobility giving opposing defenses nightmares. Any team facing the Ravens right now gets the bench. Period.

Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on X at @IDPSharks.

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