A potent atmospheric river will continue fuelling heavy rainfall throughout southwestern B.C. as we conclude the weekend. Widespread flooding has been reported as more than 150 mm of rain has already fallen across portions of Vancouver Island and the South Coast. Locally, more than 300 mm of rain has been reported in parts of the former.
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Hazards still at play Sunday include localized flooding, swollen rivers and creeks, water pooling on roads, increased risk of hydroplaning, reduced visibilities while driving and minor coastal flooding.
Rainfall warnings and flood alerts continue to remind residents of prolonged, heavy precipitation and strong winds.
Flooding may not be the only impact from the storm on Sunday. Strong, southeasterly wind gusts up to 70 km/h are forecast across the Lower Mainland Sunday afternoon, including the Fraser Valley. That could result in additional power outages and travel impacts, including ferries. Some 10,000 customers lost power on Saturday.
Wet and windy conditions persisting through Sunday
As the front crosses the South Coast, more bursts of heavy rain will cross the Lower Mainland on Sunday.
Rainfall warnings are in effect as the precipitation picks up across the region.
PHOTOS: Atmospheric river fuels flooding across B.C.
Additional rainfall for the remainder of the event is 30-50 mm for lower elevations, but 60-100 mm of further rainfall is possible for the higher terrain across northeastern Metro Vancouver.
Additional rainfall for the event is 20-40 mm, with higher terrain seeing the most of it.
Expect ponding on low-lying roads. Landslides could become a concern in areas like Highway 4 on Vancouver Island.
The winds will also be noticeable in the south, with gusts picking up along the front. Up to 70 km/h wind gusts are forecast across the Lower Mainland Sunday afternoon, including the Fraser Valley. That could impact travel, as well, and could result in localized power outages.
For some locations in the Lower Mainland and southern Vancouver Island, this atmospheric river will be bringing some of the heaviest rainfall accumulations since the November 2021 event, which shattered rainfall records over 48 hours and cut off vital transportation routes.
Comparisons to the 2021 atmospheric river
With the expected strength of this weekend’s atmospheric river, one may wonder if any similarities can be made to the devastating and deadly November 2021 event.
Comparisons can help forecast the location of the highest impacts. 2021 November model guidance amounts vs the same model forecast this weekend.
There are many differences, including a lack of snowpack, but snowpack can act like a sponge and cause snow runoff on higher terrain. pic.twitter.com/JoUzJhBHAa
— Tyler Hamilton (@50ShadesofVan) October 19, 2024
The above post on X from Tyler Hamilton, a meteorologist at The Weather Network, shows 2021 November model guidance amounts versus the current model forecast for this weekend.
There are many differences, he said, including a lack of snowpack, but snowpack can act like a sponge and limit runoff on higher terrain.
Also, 2021 had such widespread rainfall totals of 200+ mm. with those extending values well into the Fraser Valley and the Interior, Hamilton added. That won’t be the case this weekend as the highest impacts will be much more regionalized to the North Shore and southwestern Vancouver Island.
Header image of Surrey, B.C., taken by Sarbraj Singh Kahlon/@sarbrajskahlon/X.
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