For all the talk of the madness of this college football season, the sport has more undefeated teams at this point in a season than it’s had in nearly a decade.
Ten programs remain unbeaten after Week 8. That’s two more than at this point last year and the most since there were 12 unblemished teams after Week 8 of the 2015 season.
Of the 10, seven are from power conference leagues: Big Ten (3), Big 12 (2) and ACC (2). Two are military academies in the AAC, Army and Navy, which are both unbeaten for the first time this late in a season since World War II. And the other is Liberty of Conference USA.
Last week, we explored teams that, to that point, were still alive for the expanded CFP despite having at least one loss. This week, it’s time to examine the unbeatens.
Oregon Ducks
Record: 7-0
AP rank: 1
Schedule strength: 28th
Highest loss chance: vs. Illinois (Saturday)
Why they’re still unbeaten: Specifically because they survived a thrilling, heart-pounder of a game against Ohio State nine days ago. But in a more general sense, look to transfer QB Dillon Gabriel, who has completed at least 75% of his passes in five of seven games, is averaging 300 yards a game and has 15 touchdowns to four interceptions. He’s got a plethora of really talented, fast wideouts who get open, and a hard-running back in Jordan James (717 yards through seven games).
Why they’ll eventually lose: Oregon spent much of the first three games shuffling its offensive line lineup. The Ducks seem to have found the right unit, but will the early season woes every creep back? This week’s opponent, Illinois, has a guy you may have heard of: First-round NFL Draft projected outside linebacker Gabe Jacas, who has five sacks this season already.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 6-0
AP rank: 3
Schedule strength: 57th
Highest loss chance: vs. Ohio State (Nov. 2)
Why they’re still unbeaten: The Nittany Lions, as they often do, know how to run the rock. They’ve got two 400-yard rushers to this point in the season and average more than 200 yards a game and five yards a carry on the ground. Running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen pair nicely with QB Drew Allar, himself a sturdy runner. Operating in new OC Andy Kotelnicki’s defense, Allar is in the midst of a career season. His latest heroics came in a comeback win over USC in LA.
Why they’ll eventually lose: USC, Illinois and even UCLA and Bowling Green all exploited some issues with Penn State. The offense can, at times, get stuck in a rut. The defense, at times, is porous. But the main reason that they’re likely to take a loss is their schedule. Over the next two weeks, James Franklin’s team has to travel for a night game at Camp Randall to play a hot Wisconsin squad and then hosts Ohio State. Look out!
Miami Hurricanes
Record: 7-0
AP rank: 6
Schedule strength: 45th
Highest loss chance: at Syracuse (Nov. 30)
Why they’re still unbeaten: Cam Ward? The transfer quarterback has been responsible for some incredible second-half victories, including comebacks against Virginia Tech and Cal and some crucial moments in the shootout win at Louisville last Saturday. The former Washington State star is putting up Heisman-type numbers: 362 yards a game, 24 TDs with five picks and a near 70% completion rate.
Why they’ll eventually lose: The defense has holes. Big ones. Three straight opponents have scored at least 34 points against Mario Cristobal’s group. And the Canes are undisciplined at times. They rank in the bottom 10 in FBS in penalties (average of 72 penalty yards a game).
Iowa State Cyclones
Record: 7-0
AP rank: 10
Schedule strength: 36th
Highest loss chance: vs. Kansas State (Nov. 30)
Why they’re still unbeaten: Few teams are better defensively in the country than the Cyclones. They’ve held six of their seven opponents to 21 points or less, have forced 15 turnovers (eighth nationally) and have allowed just five touchdown passes all season (top 10 nationally). But in all of this, don’t forget about QB Rocco Becht, whose late-game heroics against UCF last week helped Matt Campbell’s team stay undefeated.
Why they’ll eventually lose: ISU needed a couple of comebacks already this year (UCF and Iowa) and struggled at times against 3-4 Baylor. So there are holes and weaknesses. As good as the defense has been, you can run on the Cyclones. Last week, the Knights had more than 350 yards rushing and averaged 9 a carry. That’s a problem.
BYU Cougars
Record: 7-0
AP rank: 11
Schedule strength: 32
Highest loss chance: at Utah (Nov. 9)
Why they’re still unbeaten: It starts at quarterback. Jake Retzlaff has three times this season ran for at least 50 yards and thrown for at least 200. In fact, he’s the Cougars’ leading rusher and passer through seven games. And don’t sleep on the big-play ability of receiver Chase Roberts, who’s one of the nation’s best in that category. He’s got nine catches of at least 20 yards.
Why they’ll eventually lose: Well, here’s the thing about BYU — they aren’t great in any one particular area. The Cougars are not inside the top 20 in any major statistical category. They are OK on defense, they are OK on offense and they are OK on special teams (though they average 15 yards a punt return, which ranks 17th nationally). Can they really remain undefeated with this ho-hum style? Three road games in their next four will be a test.
This embedded content is not available in your region.
Indiana Hoosiers
Record: 7-0
AP rank: 13
Schedule strength: 114
Highest loss chance: at Ohio State (Nov. 23)
Why they’re still unbeaten: Have you seen the offense? Curt Cignetti’s group has scored at least 41 points in six straight games, is fifth in the country in yards a game, first in scoring and third in plays of 10 or more yards. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke, the transfer from Ohio, has thrown for at least three touchdowns and 300 yards in three games, and RB Justice Ellison has eight scores on the ground.
Why they’ll eventually lose: Well, they do play at Ohio State! Other than that, the Hoosiers have played one of the weakest schedules of any team in the country (their best win is likely over two-loss Nebraska at home this past Saturday). Will any weaknesses be exposed by the Buckeyes or others? And can the Hoosiers win without Rourke (he’ll miss this week’s game against Washington with a thumb injury).
Pitt Panthers
Record: 6-0
AP rank: 19
Schedule strength: 77th
Highest loss chance: vs. Clemson (Nov. 16)
Why they’re still unbeaten: The Panthers certainly know how to win the close ones. They stormed back from a pair of double-digit fourth-quarter deficits against both West Virginia and Cincinnati and survived tight games — both tied in the second half — against North Carolina and Cal. Pat Narduzzi’s squad is resilient, especially true freshman QB Eli Holstein, who was responsible for many of those comebacks and fourth-quarter scores.
Why they’ll eventually lose: Having to mount a couple of epic fourth-quarter comebacks means you didn’t play very well in the first three quarters. What’s the recipe to beating Pitt? The Panthers allow more points a game (23.5) than any unbeaten team.
Army Black Knights
Record: 7-0
AP rank: 23
Schedule strength: 148th
Highest loss chance: at Notre Dame (Nov. 23)
Why they’re still unbeaten: QB Bryson Daily is a big, big reason. He leads the team in passing (629 yards) and rushing (909 yards) and is responsible for 26 of Army’s 39 touchdowns this season. The Black Knights are a wrecking ball of a rushing unit, averaging 359 yards a game for second nationally. Coach Jeff Monken’s change back to the full-out triple option this season is paying off. Army is third nationally in third-down conversions at 54.6%.
Why they’ll eventually lose: For starters, Army ranks last in the country in passing yards per game at 100. That’s right, 100. They are efficient though (eight touchdowns to zero interceptions and a 60% completion rate). However, against the better teams left on the schedule — such as Notre Dame, Navy and North Texas — that might not be good enough.
Navy Midshipmen
Record: 6-0
AP rank: 24
Schedule strength: 144th
Highest loss chance: vs. Notre Dame (Saturday)
Why they’re still unbeaten: QB Blake Horvath has 20 touchdowns — 10 on the ground and 10 through the air. He’s averaging more than 100 yards rushing a game and has been sacked just three times in six games. No one is better in the country at red-zone touchdowns than the Midshipmen. They have scored 22 touchdowns on 23 drives inside the 20-yard line. It’s a remarkable figure, especially when considering this: Last year, they were almost dead last in the country in that stat.
Why they’ll eventually lose: Like Army, the Midshipmen do not excel at throwing the football. They are efficient and more than competent. But they are far from prolific. Horvath has thrown for more than 200 yards once. What happens when they get in a bind on the ground? Can they win a game through the air?
Liberty Flames
Record: 5-0
AP rank: NR
Schedule strength: 180th
Highest loss chance: vs. Western Kentucky (Nov. 23)
Why they’re still unbeaten: None of their four FBS victories came against a team with a winning record. In fact, those four teams combine for a record of 8-20. The schedule isn’t the only reason, of course. Coach Jamey Chadwell and his evolved triple-option attack run the ball better than virtually any team in the country (the Flames are averaging nearly 230 yards rushing a game).
Why they’ll eventually lose: Liberty has given up some points this season and to bad teams. FIU, New Mexico State and East Carolina (which fired its coach) all hit the 24-point mark and so did FCS Campbell. However, the Flames’ schedule is one of the easiest in FBS. As noted above, it ranks on the Sagarin scale as the 180th schedule out of all Division I programs (FBS and FCS).