Tuesday, November 26, 2024

Oscar remnants threaten to drench parts of Atlantic Canada with 100 mm of rain

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Oscar may have hit Cuba as one of the smallest hurricanes on record, but its impacts have been widespread with strong winds and flooding rains hitting the popular Caribbean destination.

The tropical storm remains poorly organized as it moves through the central and southeastern Bahamas, though with warnings in effect for much of the region. Across the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, rainfall amounts of 75 to 125 mm are forecast, with isolated amounts around 200 mm expected through Tuesday. This rainfall could cause localized flash flooding.

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All eyes are on the storm and its impacts across Canada’s East Coast next, with Oscar expected to get absorbed into a non-tropical system over the Atlantic, and then track north towards Atlantic Canada late week.

Baron - Oscar track

Baron – Oscar track

Thursday – Saturday

The cold front tracking across the country, and significantly cooling temperatures in its wake, will head into the Maritimes on Thursday morning, and will help to draw the remnants of Oscar into Atlantic Canada.

Baron - Friday pressure trackerBaron - Friday pressure tracker

Baron – Friday pressure tracker

Rain will start Thursday afternoon for the southern shores of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. The rainfall intensity is expected to pick up during the overnight hours and into Friday morning, especially over sections of eastern Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

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While the exact track is still uncertain at this time, total rainfall amounts of 50-100 mm are possible in some of the hardest-hit regions. If the track changes slightly, it could shift where the heaviest rain falls.

Baron - Oscar rainfall accumulationBaron - Oscar rainfall accumulation

Baron – Oscar rainfall accumulation

Wind gusts are also expected to pick up early Friday, and continue into Saturday morning for the southern and eastern shores of Nova Scotia, as well as eastern Newfoundland.

Powerful gusts between 60-90 km/h are forecast with this system.

Baron - Maritimes windBaron - Maritimes wind

Baron – Maritimes wind

Both the rain and winds are expected to gradually ease through the day on Saturday.

Chilly weather is expected for early next week, then turning much warmer again by mid and late week.

Be sure to check back for the latest weather updates across Atlantic Canada.

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