It’s been less than 24 hours since New Brunswickers delivered a decisive win to Susan Holt’s Liberals and a devastating loss to Blaine Higgs’s Progressive Conservatives.
But a day is a long time in politics, and political pundits are already examining what happened during the campaign and and what may be to come.
One thing that is clear is that the Liberals managed to keep Holt in the spotlight and the party branding to the sidelines.
“I don’t think this is a sign that the Liberals’ luck at the federal level is turning,” said Erin Crandall, an Acadia University political scientist.
“I think what we saw was a party that was effective in disassociating their Liberal Party from the federal Liberal brand, right, and so part of that was emphasizing Team Holt.”
In campaign signs and platform literature, the Liberals focused more on their leader than the party. (Liberal Party of New Brunswick)
J.P. Lewis, a political scientist at UNB Saint John, said the Liberals were shrewd in making that break and their concern about potential drag from the Trudeau brand was not overplayed.
“I think they did a good job of running away from it,” said Lewis.
“They figured out a way to make this about Blaine Higgs and about Susan Holt … and they kept the Liberal brand out of it.”
PCs fail to keep up
While the Liberals had an extensive platform and offered several major promises, the PCs took the opposite approach with a two- page platform that largely spoke to their record.
St. Thomas University political scientist Jamie Gillies believes that was a mistake in this campaign.
“I think the the challenge here was that you do have to promise voters something. You have to campaign for the future, and they were campaigning on the past and that did not work,” Gillies said.
PC Leader Blaine Higgs focused on his record and a handful of commitments, such as a cut to the HST. (Jacques Poitras/CBC)
Political columnist and former journalist Duncan Matheson said he agreed with the PC strategy of trying to tie Holt to Trudeau, but in the end even that didn’t work.
He thinks it was a case of Holt a running a good campaign, while Higgs did not.
“It was a weak campaign in my estimation,” said Matheson.
Mixed bag for Greens
While the Green Party more or less maintained its vote, it lost a third of its caucus.
Gillies said the party should see this as a win because this turned out to be a change election, not something that is beneficial to third parties.
“Third parties often do poorly because the wave favours one of the two major parties.
It was a mixed night for the Greens who managed to maintain their position in votes, but lost a third of their caucus. (Kate Letterick/CBC)
Crandall said that while the Greens did lose one seat, the two races they won have solidified the party’s standing, and it can now be seen as a natural third party of New Brunswick.
“The Green Party now kind of occupies the political left in New Brunswick,” said Crandall.
“This election confirms that the Green Party is here to stay.”
Next steps for the Liberals
For the Liberals, it’s just the start of what is expected to be a four-year government.
There are election promises to keep and an expanded roster of MLAs, who may all think they deserve to get a cabinet post.
Matheson said the Liberals have a lot on their plate.
“Fixing health care is going to be massive. She promised a lot on that. Look at the financial problems N.B. Power is facing. You know, billions of dollars. She’s got her work cut out for her,” said Matheson.
Crandall expects the change in government will mean a change in the rhetoric coming out of the legislature, to “probably … create a friendlier politics.”
“I think we’re going to see a change in the way leaders in New Brunswick … talk about politics, talk about the way we should be doing politics,” said Crandall.
Next steps PCs
For the Progressive Conservatives, the loss means a number of things, including a potential new leader and taking a hard look at why the election plaid out the way it did.
That won’t be easy, said Lewis, considering some of the losses the PCs faced Monday night.
“This is like that team that has gotten rid of all the big contracts and completely rebuilt,” he said.
Progressive Conservatives now have to face the search for a new leader and what direction their party will take. (The Canadian Press)
The PCs “lost the front bench,” including cabinet ministers Greg Turner, Ernie Steeves, Ted Fleming, and Blaine Higgs himself.
“It’ll be really interesting to see who comes out to put their name forward for leadership,” said Lewis.
Gillies expects there will be a “fight for the soul of the party.”
The “PC brand in the four eastern-most provinces is still very strong,” he said.
“This social conservative and, sort of, phoned-in Christian nationalist message that they ran over the last year did not work.
“It didn’t work for voters. It didn’t work for the public. And Blaine Higgs paid a price last night.”