As the 5 November US presidential election approaches, Donald Trump has edged ahead of vice president Kamala Harris in some polls. This surge has caught the attention of crypto investors, who believe a Trump victory could lead to a rally in bitcoin (BTC-USD) and other digital assets.
With two weeks to go until the US election, Trump has extended his lead over Harris in both traditional polling and blockchain-based betting markets such as Polymarket. On Polymarket, Trump currently holds a 60.3% chance of winning, compared to Harris’s 39.6%. However, it’s important to note that Polymarket users tend to be more crypto-friendly and may favour Trump.
Traditional polls indicate a tighter race, especially in key swing states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania.
While both candidates are viewed as broadly favourable toward crypto, Trump has taken a more clear and active stance. This year, he attended the Bitcoin 2024 conference and publicly endorsed crypto project World Liberty Financial.
Harris has offered little clarity on her approach to crypto regulation, leaving uncertainty about her position on the industry.
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In a recent University of Michigan Ross School of Business and Financial Times poll, 44% of voters trust Trump to manage the economy compared to 43% for Harris, marking the first time Trump has led on this issue in the FT-Michigan Ross poll. When asked which candidate would leave them better off financially, 45% of voters supported Trump compared to 37% for Harris.
Bitcoin was trading at around $66,900 on Thursday, according to CoinGecko data. The broader cryptocurrency market saw a slight downturn, with the total market cap falling 0.3% to $2.4tn.
Bitwise head of alpha strategies Jeff Park recently forecast that bitcoin could rally as high as $92,000 if Trump secures the presidency. In an X.com post on Tuesday, Park analysed bitcoin’s current price and Trump’s odds on Polymarket using “merger arb-style probability math” to estimate a significant surge in bitcoin’s value.
Park’s forecast adds to a growing chorus of analysts who expect a Trump victory could fuel the next crypto bull run. A Trump administration would likely be a more favourable regulatory environment for digital assets, creating optimism among crypto traders and investors.
QCP Capital analysts believe that a Trump victory, combined with a strong US labour market and the prospect of rate cuts, could further support bitcoin’s price rise.
“Trump has started to extend his lead over Kamala in betting markets, and key swing states are now polling Republican. Markets are now pricing in a potential Trump presidency. Talks of increased tariffs and tax reductions are causing the USD to rally and US bond yields to head higher. Given Trump’s more crypto-friendly stance, it’s no surprise that bitcoin is trading higher as well,” QCP Capital analysts said in a report on Wednesday.