Another week, another round of crucially important start/sit decisions. To help you make them, here’s a look at six players with bust potential in Week 8.
Something to keep in mind as you’re reading: a “fade” or “bust” designation doesn’t automatically mean you should sit a player, depending on the depth of the rest of your roster or available options on your waiver wire.
QB Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
In case you haven’t heard (you probably have), the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be without their top two starting wide receivers this week, and in the case of Chris Godwin, for the remainder of the 2024 campaign. It’s extremely unfortunate, as this offensive unit has been one of the best in the National Football League through the first seven weeks of the season.
That success, of course, includes QB Baker Mayfield, who leads the league with 18 passing touchdowns and ranks top-six in NFL passer rating (107.2) and yards per pass attempt (8.0). He’s even found success on the ground with 158 rushing yards (6.1 YPC) through the first seven weeks; he’s on pace to surpass last season’s previous career high of 194 yards by a mile.
That’s been good for QB2 on the season, including a top-five finish in five of seven games.
Dating back to last season, Mayfield has recorded 41 total dropbacks on plays without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin per TruMedia. On those dropbacks, he’s averaged just 4.3 yards per pass attempt, completing 55.3% of attempts for a passer rating of 54.9. He’ll now be throwing to a combination of TE Cade Otton and Sterling Shepard, Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer at WR. Otton is the only one of the bunch with more than 10 catches on the season. It could be tough sledding as they look to build rapport mid-season.
Heat check 🔥 Mayfield may be the QB2 on the season, but he’ll be a massive liability in fantasy lineups without his top two receivers. Consider a streamer like Kirk Cousins on the other sideline or Caleb Williams against the Commanders.
RB Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
After waiting nearly half the season to finally start Nick Chubb in your fantasy football lineups, I can understand the desire to fire him up sooner rather than later. This week may not be the week, however.
This week, the Browns (with Jameis Winston at quarterback and without former WR1 Amari Cooper) will face their divisional rival, the Baltimore Ravens — one of the league’s hottest offenses both on the ground and through the air. This will work against Chubb’s value both in terms of game script, as the Browns are likely to be trailing most of the game as 9.5-point underdogs, and his efficiency, as the Ravens have been one of the most stifling run defenses this year.
In his season debut returning from a devastating knee injury, Chubb averaged just 2.0 yards per attempt on 11 carries, stuffed on 27.3% of attempts and without any explosive runs against an exploitable Bengals defense. Don’t expect much more from him in Week 8, as the wheels have just about fallen off this offense.
Heat check 🔥 If you’ve waited this long to fire up Chubb, you can wait another week. Don’t risk his low floor up against one of the league’s best rushing defenses.
RB Alexander Mattison, Las Vegas Raiders
The Las Vegas Raiders have phased Zamir White out of the offense following an inefficient start to the season followed by a groin injury that forced him to miss Weeks 5 and 6. Despite White having been active in Week 7, Alexander Mattison played a season-high 70% of offensive snaps with the appearance that his takeover of the RB1 role was complete.
Mattison has had 17 or more touches in each of the past three weeks and 60+ scrimmage yards in five of seven outings this year. However, this matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs could mean bad things for the Raiders’ new apparent RB1.
The Chiefs are allowing a league-low 12.23 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs and have been virtually impossible to run against this season. Kansas City enters Week 8 ranked top-five in the league allowing just 3.6 yards per carry (third-lowest), 2.6 yards after contact per attempt (fourth-lowest) and a 9.7% explosive run rate (third-lowest) to opposing runners. Expect Mattison to struggle mightily in this spot for Week 8.
Heat check 🔥 Despite elite usage for the running back position, Mattison gets a matchup against one of the league’s best rushing defenses, and the Raiders are likely to be playing from behind. Avoid Mattison in virtually all situations.
WR Malik Nabers, New York Giants
The New York Giants are headed to Pittsburgh for a showdown with one of the league’s best defenses — one that should give Daniel Jones plenty of concerns given his recent struggles; he’s thrown for just 304 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT over the past two weeks. Even with star rookie WR Malik Nabers back in the lineup after clearing concussion protocol in Week 7, there was no sustainable rhythm in the passing game, as Jones failed to clear even 100 yards on the day.
Steelers cornerback Joey Porter Jr. is a household name by this point, known for his tight and physical style of coverage that’s limited even some of the league’s best wide receivers. However, there’s another underrated cornerback in Pittsburgh’s secondary who deserves some attention, too: Donte Jackson. Among CBs to play 150+ coverage snaps so far this season, Jackson is allowing the second-lowest passer rating in coverage (35.8), earning three picks this season on six passes defensed. This pair is bound to make things difficult for Nabers along the perimeter.
Heat check 🔥 Nabers is a must-start as the go-to guy and WR1 for Daniel Jones. However, he’ll contend with a challenging secondary that has held all but two wide receivers (Jalen Tolbert, Josh Downs) to fewer than 15 fantasy points. Temper expectations for Nabers this week knowing that the floor could be lower than usual.
WR Diontae Johnson, Carolina Panthers
Poor Diontae Johnson. After being traded to the Carolina Panthers this offseason, he hasn’t caught much of a break. For the first two weeks of the season, he dealt with the poor play of Bryce Young at quarterback. He then enjoyed a couple of solid games with Andy Dalton under center, but even that turned sour rather quickly. Now, it’s back to Young this week up against a terrifying Denver Broncos secondary as Dalton deals with a thumb sprain.
Johnson’s 57.9% catchable target rate ranks 89th out of 101 qualifying wide receivers, per PFF, ranking 12th in unrealized air yards and 67th in fantasy points per target. With Young under center, all of those concerns are magnified significantly, having totaled a 5-34-0 line through the first two weeks of the season. If Pat Surtain II manages to clear concussion protocol, this offense won’t get much of anything done, and neither will Johnson.
Heat check 🔥 Johnson is unstartable in most leagues for Week 8.
TE Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals
The Arizona Cardinals’ passing game hasn’t been without its hiccups this season, as QB Kyler Murray has thrown for more than 215 yards and multiple touchdown passes in just one game this year (Week 2 vs. Rams). That, paired with a willingness to spread the ball around this year — four different wideouts have 29+ targets but none have more than 45 — has generally limited the upside of the Cardinals’ pass catchers for fantasy, unfortunately.
McBride has finished as the TE10 or lower in four of six weeks this year while notching two finishes in the top five. It’s been boom or bust to this point, and in Week 8, the Cardinals will face a Miami Dolphins defense that is tied for the third-lowest EPA per dropback on targets to the tight end position at -0.23 per NFL Next Gen Stats. They’re allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, holding Dalton Kincaid, Hunter Henry and Evan Engram to a combined 10.5 fantasy points (half-PPR) this season.
Heat check 🔥 Fire up McBride per usual. After all, how many tight ends have as much upside as McBride … even if the odds of a bust are a little higher this week?