Consider this column the Make or Break: Injury Edition!
Week 7 hit us with an overload of injuries, and often, those injuries create increased opportunities without yielding must-start upside.
These injuries are a bit different. Multiple teams were hit with injuries that created massive holes in their offense, with young talent ready to step up and be truly viable fantasy fill-ins. However, with multiple options, some of those fill-in choices aren’t exactly clear-cut.
Who can we trust in Week 8?
San Francisco 49ers receiving corps: Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings
Week 7 was a nightmare for the 49ers. They started the game with a near-full receiving corps — minus Jauan Jennings — and ended the day with Deebo Samuel hospitalized, Brandon Aiyuk out for the season and George Kittle with a sprained foot. It’s tough to make any significant takeaways from the fantasy production of the backup receiving corps in Week 7 because Kansas City is giving up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers. However, we can look to snap counts and route participation to try to make sense of the potential pecking order of Week 8.
In his first game, straight off IR, the 49ers wasted no time integrating Pearsall into the offense. Pearsall had the highest snap count and route participation of all 49ers receivers and was tied with Brandon Aiyuk for the team lead with five targets. While the fantasy points weren’t impressive for Pearsall, the fact that he immediately saw such a significant workload — rather than being eased in as an inexperienced rookie — was a fantastic sign.
Jacob Cowing led the way in fantasy points but had significantly lower snaps (just 12) and routes run (just eight). Second-year receiver Ronnie Bell saw some usage, and veteran Chris Conley was very active as well. None of these players are trustworthy fantasy options. That leaves us with Pearsall and Jennings, who was inactive in Week 7.
Jennings is a potentially strong play if he’s active this week. He has proven upside with his incredible 11-reception, 175-yard, three-touchdown game in Week 3 when he stepped up during Deebo Samuel’s absence. Of course, you have to monitor his hip injury (he was held out of practice on Wednesday).
Will Jennings and Pearsall make or break your lineup in Week 8?
There are a few factors here regarding Jennings versus Pearsall. We know Aiyuk is out but Kittle and Samuel remain unclear. Samuel was kind enough to let a young fantasy manager know he’s ok, but we don’t necessarily know if that means ok for this week specifically.
If Samuel is unable to suit up, both a healthy Jennings and Pearsall lean towards potentially strong flex options. If Samuel manages to play this week, that would leave only one strong play at receiver. Typically, the WR3 for San Francisco isn’t a viable option. If Jennings returns this week, he would likely be the most dependable receiver of the group, given his established chemistry and trust with Brock Purdy. Monitor practice reports closely.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jalen McMillan, WR and Bucky Irving, RB
Moving forward, the Tampa Bay receiving corps is a little less clear-cut than the 49ers’. Whereas proven upside and route participation are strong indicators for the 49ers, the Bucs’ offense moving forward is a wildcard. With the unknown, fantasy managers may be weary of playing a Bucs’ receiver this week. However, the matchup is excellent and Baker Mayfield is absolutely dealing, so there is upside in this receiving corps.
It’s simply a matter of how much we can trust it.
We’ll likely see an uptick in receiving for the Bucs’ “three-headed monster” RB committee as well. The Bucs’ usage affirms that, although it’s a clear committee, Rachaad White is still the lead back. Despite White’s receiving upside, Irving can still be a strong contributor. The beauty of Irving is that he’s not pigeonholed into a specific role. He’s a three-down back and the Bucs can use him interchangeably with White.
While the backs will likely see an increase in volume, someone has to step up in the receiving corps. Sterling Shepard has seen an increase in volume over the past several weeks while Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer have been a nonfactor. Shepard likely has the safest floor and will be the player with the most reliable snap count, but at this point in his career, Shepard doesn’t offer significant upside. McMillan popped early this season and is the most logical player to have a higher ceiling.
Will McMillan and Irving make or break your lineup in Week 8?
McMillan is an incredibly risky play. He has bust potential, even in a good matchup. The more reliable flex pivot here is increased pass volume to the running backs and Irving could be a big beneficiary. Despite playing from behind and being in a poor matchup last week, the three-player committee had two very productive backs in both White and Irving. Neither had strong production on the ground but their receiving upside was the key to this success, with both backs combining for over 100 receiving yards. Irving has upside in any format but is particularly strong in PPR.
Jaxon Smith-Ngiba, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Here’s the good news: Smith-Njigba has a chance to step up as the Seahawks’ WR1 if DK Metcalf is unable to suit up in Week 8. The bad news is that there’s no guarantee that Smith-Njigba will see a significant increase in volume. Last week was a down week for Geno Smith’s usual pass attempts. He typically throws well above 30, often over 40 and sometimes around 50, so the volume is usually there, and it’s been spread fairly evenly over the past several weeks.
The bad news is that targets haven’t been the problem for Smith-Njigba. Metcalf is averaging 8.7 targets per game, Smith-Njigba is averaging 7.9 and Tyler Lockett is at 6.6. The next receiver, Jake Bobo, averages just 1.6. Despite the target volume, Smith-Njigba has only one top-12 finish, way back in Week 2, and hasn’t finished inside the top 30 since. Touchdowns have been lacking, with just one on the season.
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Basically, the opportunities have been there, but he hasn’t consistently capitalized on them.
Will Smith-Njigba make or break your lineup in Week 8?
This week’s matchup is against Buffalo. Buffalo’s defense has been more vulnerable on the ground than through the air, so from a game-plan perspective, the Seahawks will likely lean heavily on Kenneth Walker III rather than trying to attack Buffalo’s secondary. However, if the game turns into a shootout due to Seattle’s struggling defense, there’s potential for increased volume through the air, which could give JSN a path to more targets.
Even in a poor matchup, this is a high-ceiling week for Smith-Njigba.
Cole Kmet, TE, Chicago Bears
Kmet doesn’t fit the injury qualification for the list but no tight end better embodies the make-or-break player. Kmet will either finish as the overall TE1 or get you five fantasy points — there’s no in-between. Kmet’s boom games of 21 and 22 fantasy points came against Indianapolis and Jacksonville, two excellent matchups, but he also had two dud performances against Carolina and the L.A. Rams.
The problem is that the Bears offense has too many mouths to feed with DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Keenan Allen and D’Andre Swift. Kmet naturally falls last in the pecking order, making him an extremely volatile asset. This week’s matchup against Washington is interesting. Earlier this season, the Commanders were seen as an easy defense to exploit, but under their defensive-minded head coach, they are trending in the right direction.
Will Kmet make or break your lineup in Week 8?
On the surface, Washington isn’t a good matchup for tight ends — they are giving up just 7.71 points per game to the position. However, when you look at the teams they’ve faced, those numbers start to make more sense. In Week 2, they faced the Giants, a team with no real threat at tight end. Other matchups included Cincinnati and Arizona with Trey McBride out. Their points allowed to tight ends might be a bit skewed.
If you’re in a position where you need a high-upside play at tight end this week, Kmet could hit.