Friday, November 22, 2024

MLB free agency 2024-25: Top 50 players available this winter, starting with Juan Soto

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With the World Series behind us, it’s time to turn our attention to another winter of transactional activity featuring several high-profile free agencies that we’ve been anticipating for years. The first significant date on the hot stove calendar is almost here, as the general manager meetings — at which the earliest stages of free-agent negotiations and trade discussions take place — are scheduled for Nov. 4-7 in San Antonio. The MLB Winter Meetings, the much larger annual baseball industry gathering, will take place Dec. 8-11 in Dallas.

Teams have within five days of the conclusion of the World Series to make qualifying offers to pending free agents. This year, the QO is worth one-year and $21.05 million. These offers enable teams to recoup draft pick compensation should a free agent sign elsewhere and are traditionally offered to only a handful of players at the top of the free-agent class. Players who receive qualifying offers have until 4 pm E.T. Nov. 19 to accept the offers; historically, the vast majority of such players reject these one-year offers in search of larger multi-year deals on the open market. At that point, free agency begins in full, and that’s when the fun really starts.

Here’s an early look at the 2024-25 free-agent class, headlined by a generational young hitter and chock-full of fascinating individual cases of star players at a variety of positions.

Note: This list does not include 23-year-old Japanese pitching phenom Roki Sasaki, whose availability to major-league teams this offseason is yet to be determined. This list also does not include any players whose team or player options are overwhelmingly assumed to be exercised, thus preventing them from becoming free agents, such as Freddy Peralta’s $8 million team option and Jordan Montgomery’s $22.5 million player option. You can find a full list of pending free agents here. Asterisks indicate that a player has an option for 2025.

Few hitters in the game’s history have accomplished as much as quickly as Soto, who hits the open market at the preposterously young age of 26 with a lengthy track record of offensive excellence in the regular season and postseason, which is sure to drive his price to stratospheric levels. Soto launched a career-high 41 home runs in 2024, suggesting that his power potential might still be climbing as he ages.

Even if his homer totals stay stagnant, Soto’s unparalleled plate discipline — he has drawn more walks than strikeouts in each of the past six seasons — makes him such a safe bet to sustain his elite level of performance over the long haul. Soto is one of several star-level free agents represented by super-agent Scott Boras this winter, but he exists entirely in a tier of his own — and is sure to spark a potentially historic bidding war among the handful of suitors that will be in position to put together a worthwhile offer.

Besides an August blip in which he allowed 20 runs across four starts, Burnes was his usual self — one of the best pitchers in baseball — in 2024. Traded to Baltimore in February, the burly right-hander finished the year with a 2.92 ERA in 194 1/3 frames, which should earn him a bevy of AL Cy Young votes. He capped the year with a sensational one-run, eight-inning outing in the AL wild-card round, albeit in a losing effort. That performance offered a perfect reminder that this dude is a no-doubt, flat-out ace; the O’s got what they paid for in prospect capital. Predicting pitcher durability is a game of roulette, but Burnes’ track record makes him as good a bet as any.

Having debuted in 2016, just before the Astros ascended to a practically permanent perch at or near the top of the American League, Bregman has been a main character in MLB for virtually his entire career. A six-year, $100 million extension signed before the 2019 season kept him in Houston longer than he would’ve been had he played out his arbitration years and reached free agency after 2022, but he’s still hitting the open market in his prime, albeit coming off an interesting 2024 campaign in which his OBP declined sharply relative to his career norms.

His stellar defense at the hot corner remains intact, and Bregman still possesses fantastic contact skills combined with an innate ability to pull fly balls in the air, which maximizes his modest raw power, ensuring a fairly high floor for his bat. Add his renowned work ethic and extensive experience in October, and Bregman is an ideal target for any team seeking a franchise cornerstone in the infield. While teammate Jose Altuve has been vocal about his preference to keep Bregman in H-Town, the third baseman should have substantial interest across the league that could make it difficult for the Astros to retain their former No. 2 draft pick.

Adames enters free agency on a very similar note to how Dansby Swanson did a couple of winters ago: an NL Central shortstop with a plus glove coming off a career year at the plate in his age-28 season. Adames’ defense isn’t quite as good as Swanson’s, but he boasts a lengthier track record of power production, and he too carries a fantastic clubhouse reputation to go with his on-field contributions. Adames set career highs in games played (161), doubles (33), homers (32) and stolen bases (21, a huge leap from his previous high of eight) in what was likely his final year as a Brewer.

Unlike Swanson, whose free agency coexisted with those of a bevy of other top shortstops vying for massive contracts, Adames represents the best player at his position by a comfortable margin this winter (perhaps depending on what you think of Ha-Seong Kim). He should be seeking a deal similar to or greater than Swanson’s seven years, $177M with a team looking to land a star at one of the most important positions on the diamond.

What a fascinating free agent. Let’s lay out the facts: Snell won the NL Cy Young in 2023 as a pending free agent, yet no team was willing to dish out big dough for him. He ended up signing extremely late (March 27) with San Francisco on a two-year, $62 million deal that included an opt-out. His weird offseason clearly impacted the beginning to his 2024, but over his last 17 starts of the season, Snell was sensational, with a 2.05 ERA in 92⅓ innings. He’s worthy of a Game 1 playoff start, but it’s hard to ignore that no club invested enough in him last time around. We’re high on Snell, though, and think he’s worth it despite the durability, control and injury concerns.

Since 2020, Fried has the single lowest era in MLB among pitchers with at least 100 games started. His efficacy relies on a strong defense; his strikeout rate has consistently graded out as league average. It’ll be important for Fried to land on a team with a quality defense so he can squeeze the most out of his value. But in terms of bulk and run prevention, Fried is about as good as it gets. Also encouraging: The wrong-hander’s fastball velocity has held steady around 94 mph over the past four seasons. He has missed some time due to forearm injuries the past two years, but that hasn’t impacted his stuff. His spot on our list has more to do with how high we are on Snell and the other hitters than a knock on Fried.

Since the Polar Bear debuted in 2019, only Aaron Judge has hit more home runs. Is the longtime Met an exceptional player or just a really good one? Beyond the power, the rest of Alonso’s profile is unavoidably flawed: He’s a horrendous defender, he strikes out a lot and has a .229 batting average the past two years. What’s worse, his 2024 season was easily the most uneven of his career. A reunion in Queens depends on the price. At one point, Alonso was surely shooting for the Freddie Freeman 6/162 contract, but that seems too lofty now. Still, there are few players in baseball with this type of long-ball track record, and homers are always tough to find.

Hernández’s market was surprisingly cold a year ago in his first go at free agency, despite a substantial track record of slugging leading up to his disappointing platform year with the Mariners, which in retrospect seems to be the product of the hitter-unfriendly environment in Seattle. Hernández didn’t get the multi-year deal he was seeking last winter, instead opting for a lucrative, one-year deal with the Dodgers, where he believed he could rediscover his best self.

That proved to be exactly the case, as Hernández delivered an All-Star campaign as a key cog for the champs, raising his national profile with a Home Run Derby title along the way and setting himself up for a more sizable payday this time around. He’s still a corner outfielder with average-at-best defense and a fair bit of swing-and-miss in his game, but Hernández has surely earned a more serious look from teams looking to add significant right-handed power to the middle of their lineups. That said: He remains a strong fit in L.A., and a reunion would hardly be a surprise.

The longtime D-backs first baseman didn’t become a big-league regular until he turned 28, which is why he hits free agency for the first time at a relatively advanced age. While being 34 might limit the length of his contract, Walker has yet to show many signs of decline. He’s still a fabulous defender at first base (Gold Glove winner in ‘22 and ‘23), and his bat-speed metrics grade out very well. Walker missed all of August due to an oblique issue, which seems to have limited his production in September, but he should be fully healthy come Opening Day. The former South Carolina Gamecock is firmly one of the more consistent first-base options in baseball, more of a rock than a game-changer. Whichever team signs Walker will get a strong clubhouse presence, a great glove and a valuable, reliable stick.

Santander hit 44 home runs in 2024, the fifth-most by a switch-hitter in a single season in MLB history — not bad for a former Rule 5 pick! Santander’s tenure in Baltimore was a smashing success, considering how the team acquired him, and his borderline historic final season has primed him to cash in considerably this winter. Not only does Santander feature rare power for a switch-hitter, but his splits are also balanced in a way that few switch-hitters’ are. He’s a threat from both sides of the plate and strikes out less than the average hitter, allowing his power to play with regularity.

That said, Santander is a poor defender in the outfield and could end up a DH sooner rather than later, and he’s a nonfactor on the basepaths. His slumps tend to come when he starts chasing out of the zone to a maddening degree, but on the whole, there’s a lot to like about this bat. Only Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber, Matt Olson and Alonso have hit more home runs than Santander over the past three seasons — a significant slugging sample that should not be ignored.

Last winter, the big right-hander settled for a one-year, $14 million deal with the Detroit Tigers. Once upon a time, Flaherty looked like the future of pitching, earning a fourth-place Cy Young finish in 2019 as a 23-year-old with the Cardinals. Unfortunately, injuries and underperformance derailed his ascent. And while nobody would classify Flaherty as one of the best pitchers in baseball, his 2024 certainly earned him a nice pay raise. Detroit sent him to the Dodgers at the deadline, and he quickly solidified L.A.’s banged-up rotation. Flaherty was worse after the trade and was decidedly up and down in the postseason, but he found his form enough to provide two key starts (NLCS Game 1 and World Series Game 1) for the Dodgers en route to the World Series title.

After an awful final season in pinstripes before free agency, Severino went crosstown to the Mets and delivered exactly the kind of campaign you’d want to see from a starting pitcher looking to reestablish his value on a one-year deal. He stayed healthy for the entire regular season, evolved his arsenal with his new team and even added a couple of strong postseason starts to his résumé. The introduction of a sinker to Severino’s repertoire to complement his high-90s four-seamer was perhaps the most intriguing development, and it suggests there might still be more for him to unlock.

The Mets won big betting on Severino’s upside a year ago, despite the risk coming off a poor and injury-marred season. Now the right-hander reenters the market with a newfound level of certainty about his profile that is sure to make him a hot commodity for teams looking to strengthen their rotations.

For four seasons from 2020 to 2023, Manaea was effectively a below-average starting pitcher. And through his first 20 starts with the Mets this year, it was more of the same. But on July 30 in a start against Minnesota, the tall left-hander lowered his armslot to a more natural position, with great success.

From that point forward, Manaea was one of the better starters in the league, posting the third-lowest WHIP after his mechanical adjustment. He was also strong in his first three postseason starts before the Dodgers bludgeoned him in NLCS Game 6. There’s ample reason to believe Manaea’s new delivery is real. He technically has a $13.5 million option for next season, but he’ll opt out to become a free agent and earn much more than that.

With a $27.5M player option for 2025, it’s certainly possible that Bellinger chooses to stay in Chicago for another year and try to put together an offensive season that more resembles his 2023 before testing the market again entering 2026. But this is a really close call, hence his inclusion in our rankings for the time being. He’s still a capable center fielder, though the Cubs did not use him there nearly as much in his second year on the North Side, instead deploying Bellinger more frequently at first base and in right field.

Bellinger’s reinvention as a hitter since he arrived in Chicago has thus far sustained, as he’s much more of a contact hitter now than the prodigious slugger he was earlier in his career. There’s value in that for a guy who can also play solid defense at multiple spots, especially if that includes center field. Whether it’s enough for Bellinger to forgo a guaranteed $27.5 million in search of something bigger remains to be seen.

Profar entered our baseball-watching lives more than a decade ago as one of the game’s top prospects with the Texas Rangers. It has been a while; dude literally went yard in his first career plate appearance during the first Obama administration. But for 10 seasons, the big-smiling Curaçaoan was a flop, horrendously mediocre, unavoidably disappointing. He bounced around the league, from Texas to Oakland to San Diego to Colorado. After a bad first few months in 2023, Profar was let go by the Rockies and returned to San Diego.

He re-upped with the Padres for just $1 million ahead of 2024. That turned out to be a wild underpay, as Profar somehow emerged as one of the best outfield bats in the National League this year, starting the All-Star Game and finishing the year as the NL’s sixth-best hitter by wRC+. The only free agent with better platform year numbers is Juan Soto. Profar presents a wonky free-agent case because the peripherals back up the legitimacy of his breakout, but his decade of mid is impossible to ignore. Is this one of baseball’s better hitters or a one-hit wonder?

Torres has been a fixture in the Yankees’ lineup since debuting in 2018 as part of the wave of so-called “Baby Bombers.” Despite always hitting well enough to maintain an every-day role, Torres’ offensive production has fluctuated between being star-caliber and frustratingly mediocre. That inconsistency, plus his undeniable defensive shortcomings at second base, have made him one of the more divisive players in the league — a dynamic amplified by the fact that such a volatile performance has occurred in the Bronx.

Now Torres enters free agency with a chance to write a new chapter elsewhere, perhaps under less of a microscope. He turns 28 in December, making him the youngest high-end free agent not named Soto. That unusual youth for a player on the open market should make him more enticing for teams that could view his best days as still being ahead of him, but there’s certainly risk in this profile.

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