In Lawrence Shankland’s debut season at Tynecastle, he became the first Hearts player since John Robertson to score 20 goals.
In his second season, he was named club captain, netted 31 times and became only the second Hearts player this century to reach the 50-goal mark for the club.
But this campaign, after 15 games in all competitions, he has just one goal. It came against Ross County, with the ball deflecting off the 29-year-old on the way into the net.
So, what’s gone wrong for Shankland?
The stats show the Scotland striker is still getting chances – he’s just not taking them.
He has an xG (expected goals) of 3.5, but just 24% of his shots have been on target. He takes on average 3.9 shots per game but his conversion rate is a paltry 2.4%.
Last season, his individual xG was 17.1 but his tally of 24 in the league showed he was well outperforming that. He managed that feat with just 37% of his shots on target – but there has still been a marked decrease in that stat this term.
He was attempting 3.8 shots a game, a similar number to this year, but his conversion rate sat at a much higher 18%.
Of the top scorers in the league last season, only Theo Bair and James Tavernier (although a few of his were penalties) had higher conversion rates.
Last season Shankland missed nine big chances. After 11 games, he’s already missed five.
It is simplistic to say the captain’s underperformance is the sole reason behind Hearts’ collapse this season, but it certainly doesn’t help.
Hearts scored 68 goals last season. Shankland got 46% of them. There is a reliance on their talisman to produce and when he doesn’t, Hearts suffer badly. Just ask Steven Naismith.
Neil Critchley knows that now, too. Hearts camped Kilmarnock in their own box at times on Wednesday night as they dominated the ball, but too often they failed to turn that into clear-cut opportunities.
The positive is that Critchley knows there is a goalscorer in there. He just has to get the best out of him. If he’s able to do that, the Gorgie side should climb off the bottom and rise up the league.