Friday, November 1, 2024

Eyeing a tropical system as we kick off November, hurricane season not over yet

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Despite nearing the end of the Atlantic hurricane season on November 30, this time of year can still generate intense and destructive hurricanes. A key reason being that ocean waters can easily hold onto its heat from the season. A pocket of high moisture, and low wind shear will also offer favourable conditions for development.

DON’T MISS: Autumn can still produce intense hurricanes across the Atlantic

The season has been relatively quiet since Hurricane Oscar hit on October 19 – 22. Oscar made landfall in northeastern Cuba as a very small, but mighty storm, with deadly impacts felt across the island. Its remnants went on to soak parts of Atlantic Canada with 100+ mm of rain and gusty winds.

Baron - Tropics outlook as of Nov1

Baron – Tropics outlook as of Nov1

The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) is now monitoring the progression of a brewing tropical depression, which is likely to form late this weekend or early next week. The NHC has a high 70 percent chance rating for this tropical development in the southwestern Caribbean Sea over the next seven days.

If the storm does get named, it will be Patty, the 16th named storm of 2024.

Baron - Atlantic hurricane season namesBaron - Atlantic hurricane season names

Baron – Atlantic hurricane season names

Regardless of naming status and development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the western Caribbean, the NHC says.

Impacts to the U.S. are unknown at this time, but the storm could move northwards next week, bringing heavy rain, gusty winds and rough surf.

Baron - Tropics outlook and storm development - Nov1Baron - Tropics outlook and storm development - Nov1

Baron – Tropics outlook and storm development – Nov1

This serves as a good reminder that the Atlantic hurricane season officially runs until November 30, so it’s important to remain vigilant and prepared throughout the month of November, as well.

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