Friday, November 8, 2024

Rivian stock drops as full-year loss projection widens, but ‘modest gross profit’ still expected in Q4

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Rivian (RIVN) reported third quarter revenue that missed the mark and a wider-than-expected loss as the pure-play adventure electric vehicle maker was burdened by a supplier parts issue. Though the company now projects a wider loss than expected for the year, it maintained its full-year delivery forecast and still sees a “modest gross profit” coming in the fourth quarter.

For the quarter, Rivian reported revenue of $874 million versus $980 million expected per Bloomberg consensus, a drop from the $1.34 billion it generated a year ago. The company reported an adjusted loss per share of $0.99 versus an expected loss of $0.92, and an adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) loss of $757 million, compared to $657.5 million expected.

Rivian stock dropped nearly 2% in early trade on Friday.

Last month Rivian said it was “experiencing a production disruption” due to a shortage of a shared component on the R1 and RCV (Rivian commercial van) platforms. The company said a supply shortage impact began in Q3 of this year and has become “more acute in recent weeks and continues.”

As a result of the disruption, Rivian disclosed today that it was revising its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to a loss of $2.82 billion to $2.87 billion, larger than the $2.7 billion loss it previously forecast.

Rivian maintained its annual production guidance to between 47,000 and 49,000 vehicles, down from the 57,000 it expected previously.

The company did reaffirm its annual delivery outlook of low-single-digit growth as compared to a year ago, which it expects to be in the range of 50,500 to 52,000 vehicles.

Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe tours the inside of electric automaker Rivian’s manufacturing facility in Normal, Ill., June 21, 2024. (REUTERS/Joel Angel Juarez) · REUTERS / Reuters

Despite the Q3 production and supply chain issues, Rivian said it expects “to reach a modest gross profit” in the fourth quarter of this year.

“This quarter we have made progress against our key objectives and have seen meaningful progress on our Gen 2 R1 cost structure due to the new technologies incorporated into the vehicle and manufacturing process,” CEO RJ Scaringe said in a statement. “We are excited about the future and our midsize SUV, R2, which we believe will be a fundamental driver of Rivian’s growth.”

In terms of its cash cushion, Rivian said it ended the second quarter with $7.85 billion in cash and equivalents.

FILE PHOTO: Workers assemble second-generation R1 vehicles at electric auto maker Rivian's manufacturing facility in Normal, Illinois, U.S. June 21, 2024.  REUTERS/Joel Angel Juarez/File Photo
Workers assemble second-generation R1 vehicles at electric automaker Rivian’s manufacturing facility in Normal, Ill., June 21, 2024. (REUTERS/Joel Angel Juarez/File Photo) · REUTERS / Reuters

Bank of America analyst John Murphy downgraded Rivian to ‘Neutral’ from ‘buy,’ and lowered his price target to $13 from $20, due to demand concerns and the uncertainty coming from a new administration.

“While gross margin positive is an important milestone, it will be supported by regulatory credits that could be at risk under the Trump Administration. We also now expect only moderate growth in deliveries in 2025. This is in part as the demand environment appears more challenging and as production will be limited by downtime RIVN is taking in 2H25,” Murphy wrote in a note to investors Friday morning.

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