Thursday, November 14, 2024

Trump’s first year as President initially looked like a home run for business. Then things got complicated

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“Steel Stocks Put the Pedal to the Metal” the Wall Street Journal declared within hours of Donald Trump’s election victory. Shares of U.S. Steel, Nucor, and Steel Dynamics all surged the moment trading opened. It was an eerie, almost exact replay of what had happened after Trump’s surprise win eight years earlier. Then as now, investors stampeded into those same steel companies, hopeful that deliverance had finally come to a Rust Belt industry in distress.

But what happened last time around is a warning for investors, business leaders, and the incoming Trump administration. Those steel stocks that jumped so encouragingly eight years ago continued to rocket for a while; U.S. Steel’s shares more than doubled. Yet within three years, with new steel tariffs in place, America’s major steel stocks had lost all their gains and were trading below where they had been before the election.

The steelmakers’ saga is a microcosm of Trump’s record with U.S. business during his first term. All the key issues then—tariffs, immigration, taxes, regulation—are front and center now. As he staffs his administration and strategizes what actions to take when, much depends on what lessons he has drawn from his presidential experience the first time around.

It was a story of extremes. CEO confidence as gauged by the Conference Board rose on his election, but three years later it had plunged to depths not recorded since the worst days of the financial crisis. Small business owners rejoiced when Trump won, but their optimism, as surveyed by the National Federation of Independent Business, began to slump substantially two years later. By late 2019, hundreds of industry associations, from the tiny American Down and Feather Council to the huge National Retail Federation and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, representing thousands of companies, were publicly opposing his policies on trade, immigration, or both.

The explanation of such a rise and fall is that Trump’s biggest blessings for business were front-loaded. He promised U.S. businesses he would cut their taxes and reduce regulation, and he delivered on both promises in his first year. Regulatory easing happened fast because it’s largely within the executive branch’s control. The public barely noticed, since most business regulation is incomprehensible outside the industry and plays out below the radar. But CEOs noticed immediately. Regulators became less adversarial. Getting permits and approvals was faster and easier. One CEO told Fortune, “The attitude shift was palpable.”

A replay in 2025 is likely, especially since the Biden administration has set a record for the regulatory burden imposed on the private sector. So says the American Action Forum, a center-right think tank that calculates regulatory costs. Total under Biden so far: $1.8 trillion. Under Trump: $65 billion.

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