(Bloomberg) — Egyptian inflation slightly quickened for a third month, driven by a sharp rise in fuel prices.
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Annual consumer prices in urban areas rose 26.5% in October versus 26.4% the month before, state statistics agency CAPMAS said Sunday. The index increased 1.1% month-on-month, from 2.1% in September.
Food and beverage prices, the largest single component of the inflation basket, climbed an annual 27.3% versus 27.7% in September.
The North African nation hiked fuel prices by an average of 9.2% in October. That was the third increase this year and was part of a broader plan by Egypt to reduce subsidies and improve the government’s finances. Because of the support, Egypt has some of the world’s cheapest gasoline and bread.
Sunday’s data may increase the chances of the central bank keeping interest rates at 27.25% for a fifth consecutive policy meeting when it next convenes on Nov. 21. Most economists expect Egypt won’t enact its first rate cut since the height of the Covid pandemic until the first quarter of 2025.
The acceleration trend will likely continue in November, with the latest fuel increase not yet fully reflected in the data. Next month’s figures will also reflect a recent hike in cigarette prices by Eastern Co., Egypt’s largest tobacco producer.
According to Cairo-based investment bank EFG Hermes, the government still needs to hike fuel by 15-20% to reach levels where it isn’t funding subsidies. That’s a target for the end of 2025. The next fuel-price review is meant to be in six months.
Trimming the budget deficit by reducing subsidies — albeit while also increasing social spending for poorer Egyptians — is a key plank of an expanded $8 billion International Monetary Fund deal Egypt agreed on earlier this year.
The government quadrupled bread prices in June and has also increased electricity tariffs.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva visited Cairo last week to discuss Egypt’s loan program. Egyptian authorities have indicated they wish to revise some parts of the timetable if economic pressures don’t ease. The government says it’s facing a burden because of regional tensions.
Egypt borders Gaza and has seen revenue from the Suez Canal slump because of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.
An IMF team is still in the country holding discussions with the government.