It’s been a relatively mild fall across Ontario so far this season. Conditions have been so topsy-turvy, in fact, that we had a rare confirmed tornado on Nov. 10 near Fergus amid a line of severe thunderstorms.
When will we start to make that turn toward more traditional wintry weather? Unfortunately, the cold-weather lovers among us may have to wait a while longer.
Above-seasonal temperatures have dominated the province in recent weeks—and that pattern may struggle to budge much through the latter half of November.
DON’T MISS: Where’s the snow in Toronto this season, and are we behind?
Persistent ridges of high pressure over the eastern half of North America have brought relatively warm and record-dry conditions to a significant swath of the region.
It’s likely that mild conditions will persist across Ontario through the second half of November, with temperatures coming in a little closer to seasonal than they did through the first half of the month.
Based on current patterns, folks across Ontario have a decent chance of seeing near-seasonal temperatures during the final days of November and into the first week of December.
SEE ALSO: La Niña watch remains in effect heading into this winter
However, it’s important to remember that the concept of ‘seasonal’ changes quickly this time of year. Normal high and low temperatures steadily fall heading into the winter months, so a near-seasonal reading in late November is still jacket weather across all of Ontario.
Given the prevalence of mild conditions through the remainder of the month, it’s unlikely that we’re going to meet our November snowfall averages throughout southern and eastern Ontario.
During a typical November, Toronto averages about 9 cm of snow, while Ottawa would normally see about 19 cm of snow through the month.
Above-seasonal temperatures have also taken a chomp out of the lake-effect snow season across Ontario’s traditional snow belt communities. We could see conditions grow a little more favourable for bands of lake-effect snow heading into December despite the mild regime, as seasonal temperatures continue falling closer to the freezing mark.
Header image submitted by Ali Soheil in Toronto, Ontario.