It’s extremely unlikely that a sub-.500 team will be needed to fill out the bowl field.
Out of the 134 teams at the top level of college football, over 100 still have a path to a bowl game with two weeks to go in the regular season. Of those 103 schools, 63 teams have six or more wins and are already bowl-eligible.
There are spots for 82 teams in the 2024 postseason. Twelve teams will make the expanded College Football Playoff and there are 35 non-playoff bowls. Given the number of teams already qualified for a bowl game and those that are one win away, it’s very possible that some six-win teams could get left out of the postseason entirely.
Here’s a look at how each conference’s bowl hopefuls stand entering Week 13.
AAC
Going bowling: Army (9-0), Tulane (8-2), Memphis (9-2), East Carolina (6-4)
Needs one win: South Florida (5-5), UTSA (5-5), North Texas (5-5)
The AAC is the only conference that doesn’t need to worry about who is playing in the title game. Army and Tulane will meet each other on Dec. 6. East Carolina has won three straight after a coaching change to get bowl-eligible, while South Florida has games against Tulsa and Rice remaining to get to a bowl. UTSA plays Temple in Week 13 before a season-ending trip to Army.
ACC
Going bowling: SMU (9-1), Miami (9-1), Clemson (8-2), Syracuse (7-3), Pitt (7-3), Duke (7-3), Louisville (6-4), Georgia Tech (6-4), North Carolina (6-4)
Needs one: Virginia (5-5), Virginia Tech (5-5), NC State (5-5), Boston College (5-5), Cal (5-5)
Win out: Wake Forest (4-6)
As many as 15 teams can make a bowl game in the ACC, though Wake Forest needs wins at Miami and Duke to get to a bowl game. That’s probably not going to happen. Virginia and Virginia Tech could meet in the final week of the regular season with bowl eligibility on the line for one or both of them.
Big 12
Going bowling: BYU (9-1), Colorado (8-2), Arizona State (8-2), Iowa State (8-2), Kansas State (7-3), Baylor (6-4), TCU (6-4), Texas Tech (6-4)
Needs one: West Virginia (5-5), Cincinnati (5-5)
Win out: Kansas (4-6), Houston (4-6), UCF (4-6), Arizona (4-6), Utah (4-6)
The only team in the 16-team conference already eliminated from bowl contention is Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are 0-7 in league play. Both UCF and Utah can’t make a bowl game; they meet each other on Black Friday. Kansas needs wins over Colorado and Baylor after taking down previously undefeated BYU on Saturday night.
Big Ten
Going bowling: Oregon (11-0), Indiana (10-0), Ohio State (9-1), Penn State (9-1), Illinois (7-3), Iowa (6-4), Minnesota (6-4), Rutgers (6-4), Washington (6-5)
Needs one: Wisconsin (5-5), Michigan (5-5), USC (5-5), Nebraska (5-5)
Win out: UCLA (4-6), Michigan State (4-6), Northwestern (4-6), Maryland (4-6)
It is theoretically possible that all 17 teams listed above get to six wins as none of the 4-6 teams play each other over the final two weeks. That’s very unlikely, however. For example, UCLA would need to beat USC and Fresno State, while the Trojans beat Notre Dame in the final week of the season. Nebraska has also lost nine straight games with bowl eligibility on the line and plays Wisconsin and Iowa over the final two weeks.
Conference USA
Going bowling: Sam Houston State (8-2), Liberty (7-2), Jacksonville State (7-3), Western Kentucky (7-3)
Win out: Louisiana Tech (4-6)
Louisiana Tech kept its slim bowl hopes alive with a 12-7 win at Western Kentucky on Saturday night. However, the Bulldogs travel to Arkansas on Saturday.
Independents
Going bowling: Notre Dame (9-1), UConn (7-3)
Yes, UConn is already bowl-eligible. The Huskies have games at Syracuse and UMass to finish the season and should finish at 8-4.
MAC
Going bowling: Ohio (7-3), Toledo (7-3), Miami Ohio (6-4), Bowling Green (6-4), Buffalo (6-4), Northern Illinois (6-4)
Needs one: Western Michigan (5-5), Eastern Michigan (5-5)
You guessed it, Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan meet in the final week of the season. The Eagles play Buffalo on Wednesday, a day after the Broncos visit Central Michigan.
Mountain West
Going bowling: Boise State (9-1), UNLV (8-2), Colorado State (7-3), San Jose State (6-4)
Needs one: Fresno State (5-5), New Mexico (5-6)
In addition to playing UCLA, Fresno State also has Colorado State. Can it get a win from either of those games? New Mexico upset Washington State on Saturday and is off in Week 13 before a season-ending trip to Hawaii with a bowl berth on the line.
Pac-12
Going bowling: Washington State (8-2)
Win out: Oregon State (4-6)
The path to a bowl is up a mountain for the Beavers. Oregon State hosts Washington State in Week 13 before a trip to Boise State to end the season.
SEC
Going bowling: Texas (9-1), Texas A&M (8-2), Georgia (8-2), Alabama (8-2), Tennessee (8-2), Ole Miss (8-2), South Carolina (7-3), Missouri (7-3), LSU (6-4), Vanderbilt (6-4)
Needs one: Arkansas (5-5), Florida (5-5), Oklahoma (5-5)
Win out: Auburn (4-6), Kentucky (4-6)
Mississippi State is the only team in the SEC eliminated from bowl contention right now. That’s likely to change in Week 13. Kentucky is at Texas and Auburn plays Texas A&M. Oklahoma hosts Alabama and visits LSU to end the season too. The Sooners could be in real danger of going 5-7.
Sun Belt
Going bowling: Louisiana (8-2), James Madison (8-2), Marshall (7-3), Georgia Southern (6-4), Texas State (6-4), Arkansas State (6-4)
Needs one: Coastal Carolina (5-5), South Alabama (5-5), Louisiana-Monroe (5-5)
Win out: Appalachian State (4-5), Old Dominion (4-6)
Appalachian State had a game canceled earlier this season because of Hurricane Helene. The Mountaineers need to beat both James Madison and Georgia Southern to get to six wins. Old Dominion has Marshall and Arkansas State on its schedule.