This fall season has been remarkably quiet across Ontario, without any major storms or signs of wintry weather hitting the region just yet.
You can thank the persistent ridges of high pressure over the eastern half of North America that have brought relatively warm and record-dry conditions to a significant swath of southern Ontario. November even brought late-season thunderstorms and a tornado in Fergus, which is pretty rare.
But as this week unfolds, a more unsettled pattern takes shape, bringing everything from gusty winds to heavy rain, and even the potential for snow flurries to some areas. Welcome back to November.
DON’T MISS: Where’s the snow in Toronto this season, and are we behind?
Tuesday:
A powerful Texas low is bringing widespread snow to the Prairies and rain to northern Ontario.
While it will be quite persistent in the north, there is just the chance for showers in southwestern Ontario throughout the day on Tuesday, spreading into the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) by Tuesday night.
SEE ALSO: La Niña watch remains in effect heading into this winter
Wednesday:
A low pressure system will develop and intensify over the southern Great Lakes on Wednesday, which will bring the more persistent rain into southern Ontario on Wednesday afternoon. The rain will continue overnight as it tracks into central and eastern Ontario.
Easterly winds will also increase throughout the day along Lake Ontario and Lake Erie, with gusts between 30-60+ km/h possible by Wednesday night.
The winds will eventually switch to the west once the front moves through, and this wind shift will help to usher in some cooler temperatures.
Thursday:
On Thursday, the low will wrap around cooler air across southwestern Ontario, suppressing temperatures back to more typical values in November.
We are closely watching areas in the southwest for the potential for some slushy, wet snow accumulation into Thursday morning, especially across higher terrain away from the Great Lakes.
Unsettled conditions will continue through the day on Thursday, with another chance at snow through the overnight, and into Friday, as temperatures drop near the freezing mark.
In all, between 10-30 mm of rain is forecast for central and eastern portions through Thursday, while parts of the southwest and GTA could see 20-40 mm fall.
Friday through Saturday:
Yet another system develops in New England, and continues to bring unsettled conditions for southern Ontario. The heaviest precipitation is expected on Friday, becoming more scattered through the day on Saturday.
Confidence with this week’s snow forecast
Because there are several low pressure systems interacting with each other, the exact location of the precipitation is uncertain as a lot of it will be scattered.
The temperatures will be key for any snow that falls, as well, but also having the cooler temperatures and the precipitation timing line up. The location and amount of snow is highly uncertain at this time.
First look into December
An active pattern is expected next week and into the beginning of December. Temperatures are still expected to be on the mild side of seasonal much of the time, but the exact storm track will have to be watched closely to see if parts of the region will be cold enough for some more wintry weather with wet snow.
Stay tuned to The Weather Network for the latest forecast updates for Ontario.