The final days of November will be looking and feeling a lot more like what we typically see in southern Ontario, with signs of snow creeping into the forecast as we round out the month and kick off December.
An active end to November will bring the first prolonged taste of wintry weather to southern Ontario.
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We’re keeping our eyes on multiple systems and the much-delayed setup of the lake-effect machine this week, ushering in what will be the first snowfall of autumn for many locales in southern Ontario.
This week:
Unusual November sunshine and record-breaking, warm temperatures have taken centre stage for much of the month in southern Ontario. In fact, many areas across the province are on track for seeing their warmest fall season on record.
That means snow flurries have essentially been non-existent so far, but things are about to change.
It’s a bit of a tricky scenario we have unfolding, and is as follows: An initial system will be followed by a lake-effect setup before another tricky storm, and will then finish with more from the lake-effect machine.
Tuesday will be the first transition day as a front sweeps across the Great Lakes, a rain event for the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) becomes trickier for central and eastern sections where snow becomes a factor.
On Wednesday, the first wave of Arctic air from the Prairies will try to organize some lake-effect bands of snow off lakes Superior and Huron, and Georgian Bay. Organization will be tough, however, due to an incoming storm stateside.
Thursday brings the biggest question mark to the biggest question. The track of the incoming storm is more likely to impact Montreal, Que., and eastern Ontario, though models are showing signs of the storm moving north soon enough to impact the GTA.
Regardless of the track of Thursday’s storm, it will draw in another wave of Arctic air, which will stick around through the weekend. All the Great Lakes will be producing lake-effect snow for multiple days as December arrives.
The pattern is conducive to bringing in the cold air that will stay in place through the beginning of December. The track of the lows as previously mentioned have lower confidence.
There is good confidence in the multi-day, lake-effect snow, but it won’t be widespread, but more so for the snowbelt regions.
Cold start to December could be a major win for ski areas…finally!
With the upcoming pattern conducive for more cold air into the beginning of December, ski areas could take advantage of some snow making, as well.
This will be quite the contrast to recent years, when much milder weather didn’t allow for any snow leading into the holiday season.
Will the pattern stay cold? Be sure to continue to check back for the latest forecast updates as we get ready to start December.