(Bloomberg) —
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Economists expect Chinese exports to reach a historical high this year as customers rush to front-load orders given President-elect Donald Trump’s threat of higher tariffs when he takes office in January.
Export growth will accelerate to 7% in the final three months from the same period last year, according to the median forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg Nov. 15-21. That’s an upgrade from the 5% gain seen in October ahead of the US election and would push total exports this year to $3.548 trillion — above the previous record in 2022.
“In the next few months, Chinese exports might benefit from panic-stockpiling by foreign companies,” said Erica Tay, an economist with Maybank Investment Banking Group. “The specter of a trade war will probably cause China’s policymakers to lean more heavily on pro-consumption stimulus measures next year.”
Exports already started off this quarter with the fastest growth since July 2022, putting China on track for a record trade surplus that could reach almost $1 trillion this year. Beijing has continued to look to sales abroad to offset the weakness of domestic demand even as officials pivoted in recent weeks by pumping stimulus into the economy.
On the campaign trail, Trump threatened to increase the levies on Chinese goods to as high as 60%, a level that Bloomberg Economics predicts would decimate trade between the world’s two biggest economies. During his first term, Trump imposed tariffs of up to 25% on more than $300 billion of Chinese shipments — triggering retaliation from Beijing — and President Joe Biden has largely kept them in place.
What Bloomberg Economics Says…
“China’s recent pro-growth pivot has potential to put the economy on a faster track. A trade war with the US in 2025 threatens that prospect. The challenge for Beijing is to turn its stimulus plans into growth traction and shield the economy from another wave of Trump tariffs.”
— Chang Shu, Eric Zhu and David Qu, economist. For full analysis, click here
The prospect of an expanded trade war after Trump returns to the White House is raising expectations for greater stimulus going into next year, as China braces for a new era of protectionism. In contrast to the booming exports, import growth has flat-lined as the domestic economy struggles to pick up, provoking a global backlash from countries that fear the flood of cheaper Chinese goods.