However, RBC expects a partial recovery in the labour force participation rate, which dropped by 0.3 percentage points over the last two months.
Job market: Canada versus US
While the job market in Canada faces troubles, the scenario in the U.S. is much better, according to RBC.
RBC projects U.S. payroll employment to jump by 157,000 jobs in November, recovering from October’s modest gain of 12,000. The October figure, the smallest since the pandemic, was skewed by temporary disruptions from hurricanes and labor strikes.
The U.S. unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1% in November for the third consecutive month. While this rate is slightly higher than 3.7% a year ago, it is still below the summer peak of 4.3%.
However, beneath these headline numbers, the U.S. labour market is showing subtle signs of cooling. “Job openings have continued to fall, and quit rates are at their lowest level since 2020,” RBC states.