In our everlasting mission to predict the future, a top-down look at how an offense might attack their opponent’s defense is, in my humble estimation, a good place to start.
We find defenses every season that profile as a so-called run funnel, meaning opponents lean unusually hard on the rushing attack in neutral and positive game scripts. The same goes for pass funnels: Defenses that are regularly attacked through the air in neutral situations (generally meaning when the game is within seven points either way).
Identifying those matchups is the point of this column. This funnel defense analysis should not be the end-all-be-all for how you determine your weekly fantasy plays. It is but another data point in your brain-rattling decision making on who to play and who to bench.
Pass Funnel Matchups
Raiders vs. Bucs
We get a rare treat in an era of boring, run-first, check-down, EPA-driven NFL football: A matchup between two tried-and-true pass funnel defenses. The Bucs, entering Week 14, are the league’s third most extreme pass funnel; the Raiders are fourth.
Ten of 12 teams to face Vegas this season have been over their expected pass rate, with the past five teams to play the Raiders going at least 8 percent over. That’s a lot, per my spreadsheets. Meanwhile, Tampa opponents have gone over their expected pass rate in nine of 12 games. The Bucs in 2024 have faced a 64 percent neutral pass rate, by far the highest in the NFL.
There should be plenty of dropping back in this game, which has a 46-point Vegas total, two points higher than it was on Monday. Both Baker Mayfield and Aidan O’Connell should have plenty of time to operate in the pocket this week: The Raiders sport one of the NFL’s lowest pressure rates and the Bucs’ pass rush is middling at best. Both QBs have a fantastic chance to pick apart the opposing defense too. The Bucs give up the league’s highest drop back success rate, and the Raiders, with the ninth highest rate, aren’t too far behind.
A pass-heavy script for Vegas obviously benefits Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers, who last week against the Chiefs combined for 16 catches on 25 targets. Tre Tucker somehow led the team in pass routes against KC, so a bunch of O’Connell drop backs could, just maybe, put him in play as a viable option in deeper leagues. Tucker would be firmly in play if Meyers, who picked up an ankle injury on Thursday, misses this one.
Cade Otton and Mike Evans would be the primary beneficiaries of a pass-heavy attack against the Raiders. Sterling Shepard, who ran a route on 28 of the Bucs’ 33 drop backs last week with Evans back in the fold, could see trickle-down benefits against the pass-funnel Raiders. He was targeted seven times on his 28 routes last week against Carolina, operating from the slot on 66 percent of his routes. Rachaad White, meanwhile, could see a bump as he remains the team’s primary pass-catching back.
Buck Irving finds himself in a smash spot because Bucky Irving has never not been in a smash spot.
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Jaguars vs. Titans
Hark, we have another matchup of pass funnel defenses. It’s an embarrassment of riches for NFL fans who enjoy games featuring a pass rate of more than 50 percent (here’s looking at you, Eagles and Steelers and Colts and Lions and Packers and Commanders and Ravens and, to a lesser extent, Bills and Falcons).
Through Week 13, the Titans are the league’s seventh most pronounced pass funnel. The Jaguars are fifth, being carved up for what is by far and away the NFL’s highest pass EPA. Jacksonville isn’t exactly stout against the run, but they are abominable against the pass, and opponents have acted accordingly.
After a pass-first start to the 2024 season, the Titans have reversed course and become one of the ten run-heaviest offenses, trying, I suppose, to hide Will Levis and his almost-weekly catastrophic decisions. Even so, the Titans’ 62 percent drop back rate this season tells us they aren’t afraid to let it rip when the matchup is right. A pass-first approach for Tennessee this week should make Levis interesting as a streaming option in one-QB leagues and a locked-in starter in superflex formats.
Calvin Ridley, who leads the NFL in air yards and has a 29 percent target share since Week 8, should be in for a fat stat line against the down-horrific Jaguars. I suppose Nick Westbrook-Ikhine — who has four touchdowns on his past seven receptions — could keep getting away with it here. Chig Okonkwo, who managed six targets in a massively pass-heavy outing against Washington in Week 13, would be the next best bet to see inflated route and target numbers against the Jaguars. He might be in play as a desperation option.
Five of the past six teams to face the Titans have been well above their expected pass rate. Jacksonville, entering as 5.5-point underdogs, should join the list of pass-heavy Tennessee opponents with Mac Jones at the helm for the concussed Trevor Lawrence.
After running ice cold last week against the Texans (205 air yards!), Brian Thomas, along with short-area vacuum Evan Engram, should see an uptick in targets here. Parker Washington, who I wrote up in this week’s Regression Files, could once again be interesting in 12-team leagues, though I don’t suspect he’ll maintain his target-hog status. I should mention Devin Duvernay was the Jags’ primary slot guy last week against Houston and saw four targets. Do with that information what you will. I absolve myself of any Duvernay-related lineup decisions you make in the next 48 hours.
Run Funnel Matchups
Bears vs. 49ers
San Francisco, as I’ve mentioned one or twice or 12 times this season, is a major run funnel defense. They are, in fact, the NFL’s most pronounced run funnel. Three of the past 49ers opponents have been at least 7 percent below their expected pass rate and teams are passing the ball at a 54 percent clip in neutral situations against the Niners.
This trend could be enough to end a nice little streak of the Bears going giga-ultra pass heavy. Since firing offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, the Bears have dropped back on 71 percent of their offensive snaps, the third highest rate in the league over that three-week span. It’s fueled target volume for all three of the Chicago wideouts and added a dash of volume to Caleb Williams’ otherwise ordinary fantasy profile. That might be tossed aside for one week against the 49ers, and that might mean inflated volume for D’Andre Swift.
Though Swift did not practice Thursday with a quad injury, it would be something of an upset for him to miss Week 14. Roschon Johnson, meanwhile, remains sidelined with a brain injury. Last week against Detroit, Swift was the only Chicago running back to log a rushing attempt (he had 11) and ran a pass route on half of Williams’ drop backs. Altogether it’s not a hateful profile.
A mere four teams — the worst of the worst — have allowed a higher rush EPA this season than the 49ers. They’re giving up the tenth highest rate of yards after contact per rush. It’s the sign of a team that has given up. Swift could see 20 touches against this defense in Week 14. Whoever gets the lead back role for Chicago is in a quietly fantastic spot.
Bills vs. Rams
I wrote up the Rams last week in this space because LA has inched into heavy run funnel territory since Halloween. The Saints operated accordingly and rushed for 143 yards while going 6 percent below their expected pass rate against the Rams.
Six of the past seven teams to face off against LA have been well below their expected pass rate. Opponents are bullying the Rams at the line; LA now gives up the league’s fifth highest rate of rush yards before contact and the seventh highest rush EPA. This should be an open invitation for the run-curious Bills to establish it in Week 14.
Buffalo in last week’s snowstorm dissemination of the Niners were 11 percent below their expected pass rate. Entering this matchup as 3.5-point road favorites, I’d expect the Bills to be balanced or run-first against the Rams. That should open up plenty of opportunity for James Cook, and could make Ray Davis interesting for deep league purposes. Davis over the past two games has 16 rushes to Cook’s 23, including some work inside the ten yard line.
With six teams on bye for some reason, Davis could be slotted in as a 12-team starter assuming the Bills exploit the Rams’ central defensive weakness.
Such an approach would create target volume issues for Amari Cooper, Khalil Shakir, and the rest of the team’s pass catchers. The last time the Bills went run heavy (besides last week’s snow game) was in Week 6 against the Jets, when only one Buffalo pass catcher — Dalton Kincaid — saw more than four targets from Josh Allen.