(Bloomberg) — The move by OPEC+ to delay the revival of supply to April is making options traders the most downbeat in months. Soybeans are in the spotlight with the US Department of Agriculture releasing its latest supply-and-demand estimates Tuesday. And the US natural gas “widowmaker” trade has flipped, signaling early bets of an oversupplied market at the end of winter.
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Here are five notable charts to consider in global commodity markets as the week gets underway.
Oil
Options traders are the most bearish in months on Brent crude after OPEC+ nations agreed to again delay the return of oil output halted since 2022. At best, the delay appears likely to just slow any price declines during a period of seasonally low demand in the first quarter. With futures mired in a $10-$15 wide trading range and holidays approaching, options implied volatility also is taking a hit as traders shy away from betting on big moves.
Soybeans
Grains traders will be closely watching for insights on South American soybean supplies with the USDA’s monthly WASDE report. Abundant rains in key producing regions of Brazil have fueled expectations of a record harvest next year from the top supplier, adding to a bumper US crop. Such an outlook already is weighing on prices for the oilseed used in everything from chicken feed to truck fuel.
Alumina
Aluminum smelters in China are cutting output following a surge in prices of the raw material needed to make the lightweight metal — driving up costs for the top producing nation. Alumina has more than doubled this year — even after last week’s price declines knocked it off record highs — thanks to a string of disruptions from Jamaica to Guinea and Australia to China. Alumina’s rally has diverged from more modest gains of aluminum, where futures have risen about 9% this year on the London Metal Exchange.
Natural Gas
The widowmaker has gone negative. The spread between March and April natural gas futures flipped last week, marking the earliest point for such a seasonal turn in nine years. The much-watched trade, dubbed the widowmaker due to its volatility, is essentially a bet on how tight supplies will be at the end of the North American winter.
Solar
The US solar industry is entering a lean cycle, with the pace of installations expected to largely plateau through the end of the decade — even without factoring in any changes from President-elect Donald Trump. After a period of frenetic growth, installations this year will slip 1.8% to 40.5 gigawatts, according to Wood Mackenzie and the Solar Energy Industries Association. Expansion is expected to be essentially flat in the following five years, with average annual growth around 2%.