By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY (Reuters) – Asian shares were dragged by a slide in South Korea on Monday ahead of a packed week of central bank meetings that should see borrowing costs take a step lower, while U.S. inflation data are the last hurdle to a further policy easing there.
Political tumult in France and South Korea was joined by the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, which complicated an already fraught situation in the Middle East.
Still, the mood was generally upbeat after U.S. November payrolls showed enough of a recovery to assuage concerns of a slowdown, but not so much as to forestall a rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week.
“Incoming data support our call for global growth lift into year-end, despite a slipping Euro area and building political stress,” said Bruce Kasman, head of economic research at JPMorgan.
“We expect policy rates in Canada, Euro area, and Sweden to drop to 2% or lower over the coming year, while US and UK rates settle close to 4%,” he added. “This month’s meetings should point in this direction.”
Futures imply an 85% chance on a quarter-point easing at the Fed’s Dec. 17-18 meeting, up from 68% ahead of the jobs figures, and have a further three cuts priced in for next year.
That outlook combined with the bull run in tech stocks to boost the Nasdaq market by over $1 trillion in value last week alone. On Monday, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both little changed.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.2%. South Korean stocks fell 1.7% even as authorities pledged all-out efforts to stabilise financial markets amid uncertainty over the fate of President Yoon Suk Yeol.
Japan’s Nikkei firmed 0.4%, helped by an upward revision to economic growth.
Asia will also be alert to data on Chinese inflation later in the session. The consumer price index is seen slipping 0.4% in November, while the annual pace is expected to tick up to 0.5%.
China’s Central Economic Work Conference is also scheduled for this week, though markets are not sure if any new policies will be announced.
The U.S. consumer price report is out Wednesday and the core is seen holding at 3.3% for November, which should be no impediment to a rate easing.
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Among the many policy meetings this week, the European Central Bank is fully expected to cut by 25 basis points on Thursday, with a one-in-five chance of 50 basis points.
“With geopolitical uncertainty high and conflicting signals from hard and soft data, monetary policy remains the only game in town to support economic activity, especially in the absence of strong political leadership in Paris and Berlin,” said Barclays economist Christian Keller.