Monday, December 16, 2024

With Devin Williams-Nestor Cortes swap, Yankees and Brewers both strengthen their pitching for 2025

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The post-Juan Soto pivot for the Yankees rolled on in spectacular fashion Friday, as New York reportedly acquired two-time All-Star Devin Williams from the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for left-hander Nestor Cortes Jr. and infield prospect Caleb Durbin. As questions about Soto’s exit from the Bronx lingered following the superstar outfielder’s introductory New York Mets news conference on Thursday in Queens, Brian Cashman and Co. plowed ahead in a crucial winter for the storied franchise and successfully landed one of the biggest names on the trade market in Williams.

Cortes and Williams share the unfortunate distinction of having allowed two of the more memorable home runs of this past postseason: Pete Alonso’s go-ahead blast in the decisive Game 3 of the wild-card series in Milwaukee (Williams) and Freddie Freeman’s walk-off grand slam in Game 1 of the World Series in Los Angeles (Cortes). The heartbreaking homers were allowed under drastically different circumstances, with the all-world closer Williams trying to nail down a save like countless times before, compared to a starting pitcher in Cortes being thrust into the highest-leverage situation of his career in a rare relief appearance after an elbow injury sidelined him for several weeks.

While both pitchers’ seasons ended on sour notes, those flashbulb moments shouldn’t cloud our perception of them as they prepare to contribute to their new clubs.

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Part of why Alonso’s home run was so remarkable is that such impactful swings against Williams have been exceedingly rare over the course of the right-hander’s career. His career 1.83 ERA and .157 batting average against paint an accurate picture of a venerable game-ender who has dominated opposing lineups in high-leverage scenarios with his fantastic fastball and otherworldly changeup for more than a half-decade. His control remains shaky, with walk rates hovering around 12% annually, but few relievers possess such an overpowering combo of offerings.

Williams missed the first half of the 2024 season due to a back injury but hardly skipped a beat upon return and was utterly dominant down the stretch — until Alonso’s untimely home run. He immediately slots into the ninth-inning role for New York, joining Luke Weaver as the Yankees’ go-to bullpen arms and representing a crucial addition in the wake of Clay Holmes’ departure.

As if Alonso’s homer off Williams weren’t dramatic enough, Cortes’ low point against Freeman in the 10th inning of World Series Game 1 will be replayed for decades to come. But unlike Williams, who will be asked to secure the game’s final outs moving forward, don’t expect to see Cortes trotting in from the Milwaukee bullpen anytime soon. Although he finished the regular season on the injured list due to a left elbow flexor strain, Cortes amassed a career-high 174 1/3 innings for New York in 2024 — more than any Brewers starting pitcher.

Cortes’ plus command of a deep arsenal did not yield quite as sterling results as we saw during his breakout All-Star campaign in 2022, but he posted a 3.77 ERA that equated to a park-adjusted 109 ERA+, comfortably above league average. He adds a much-needed left-handed element to a Brewers rotation that previously projected to feature exclusively righties, with Freddy Peralta, Tobias Myers, Aaron Civale and Brandon Woodruff (returning from shoulder surgery) looking like Cortes’ peers on the starting staff.

For New York, this is a tremendous follow-up to the massive signing of Max Fried to an eight-year, $218 million deal. The Yankees strengthened their rotation with one of the best southpaw starters in the league in Fried and now fortify their bullpen with one of the best closers in baseball in Williams. While there is still ample work to be done to address the position-player group, the Yankees correctly identified that replacing Soto’s impact on offense would be difficult — if not impossible — given the options available and Soto’s unique ability. Instead, they have thus far pursued high-end talent on the mound in hopes of forming an elite pitching staff that can serve as the backbone of the team’s success.

This is also an impressive example of how player identification and development can enable teams to land top-tier talent via trade without hampering the overall strength of their roster. Cortes blossomed in his late-20s as a legitimate mid-rotation starter under the tutelage of New York’s renowned pitching development apparatus. But following the emergence of young right-handers Clarke Schmidt and Luis Gil, plus the addition of Fried, Cortes was expendable for New York yet still valuable to a contending club such as Milwaukee.

Durbin, meanwhile, was acquired from Atlanta two winters ago in exchange for a veteran reliever in Lucas Luetge and subsequently developed in New York’s minor-league system into a prospect other teams strongly coveted. He appeared primed to contribute in the Yankees’ infield in some form in 2025, but he was also no sure thing as a rising rookie. That made him an ideal trade chip in a deal for a proven bullpen weapon such as Williams, while the Yankees still have plenty of time to address their infield through other means.

Milwaukee has run this playbook before, having traded star closer Josh Hader before the end of his contract and dealt ace Corbin Burnes with one year remaining on his deal. While Williams was injured in 2024, the Brewers demonstrated that they can conjure up viable high-leverage relief arms as well as any organization in baseball, and there are several candidates who could emerge in 2025 as the next great Milwaukee closer. Gigantic flamethrower Trevor Megill, who quietly collected 21 saves in 2024, is the heir apparent as things stand, though he’ll need to prove that he can hold up over the course of a full season. His 48 appearances and 46 1/3 innings in 2024 both marked career highs at the big-league level.

Had Milwaukee been strictly focused on shedding Williams’ salary, this likely would’ve been a deal built around prospects and/or pre-arbitration players. But MLB Trade Rumors projected both Williams and Cortes to earn approximately $7.7M in their final year of arbitration, meaning Milwaukee’s payroll won’t shift dramatically with this move. (The Yankees are reportedly sending $2M to Milwaukee as part of the trade.) The acquisition of Cortes signals the Brewers’ intention to reallocate resources to their thin rotation and serves as a reminder that they are still in win-now mode, despite dealing away their celebrated closer. With free agency looming next winter, Cortes might be only a short-term solution, but for a team in severe need of quality innings in bulk, the left-hander could prove immensely valuable as manager Pat Murphy’s squad attempts to defend its NL Central crown.

It’s not just about swapping a year of a closer for a year of a starter, though. Durbin is the third and final piece of this deal — and hardly an insignificant one at that. The soon-to-be-25-year-old infielder’s unlikely baseball journey continues to unfold in fascinating ways, with this marking the second time he has been traded since the Braves drafted him in the 14th round in 2021. What makes Durbin uncommon is his path leading to pro ball, as the Chicago-area native played collegiately at Washington University in St. Louis, a renowned program at the Division III level.

Getting drafted out of a Div. III school is rare, especially as a position player. But Durbin’s uncanny bat-to-ball skills (he struck out twice in 190 plate appearances as a junior at WashU), impressive athleticism and defensive versatility despite his size (he is listed at 5-foot-6) attracted scouts and analysts alike to consider him a viable prospect. He has since continued to perform at a high level at each stop in the minor leagues, most recently as a breakout star in the prospect-laden Arizona Fall League. Previously slated to factor into the Yankees’ infield, Durbin now shifts to a Brewers team that requires some reshuffling after star shortstop Willy Adames left in free agency and will join Joey Ortiz and Brice Turang as promising chess pieces for Murphy to move around the infield.

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