It can be easy to tilt and question even the easiest start/sit decisions — especially In the fantasy football playoffs. Can we trust the recent boom performances? Should we stick with the stars that got us to the postseason who have disappointed lately? Dalton Del Don is here to help us gauge the trustworthiness of certain players in fantasy’s biggest weeks.
Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens
Henry saw his lowest RB rush share (58.3%) of the season last week in a matchup with the Ravens as the biggest favorites in any game this season. Henry was the RB1 through Week 9, but he’s been the RB20 over six weeks since. Henry ranks second behind only Saquon Barkley in rush yards over expectation, so performance hasn’t been the issue. Henry has historically been extra sensitive to game-script, and Baltimore had trailed for 65% of its offensive plays over the previous four games before last week’s blowout (when Henry ironically sat most of the fourth quarter after building a huge lead through passing). Moreover, Henry saw 12 opportunities inside the five-yard line over the first six weeks, but he’s seen just five over eight games since.
It’s possible Baltimore leans more toward the pass while trying to get Lamar Jackson his third MVP trophy, but Henry should start seeing increased scoring chances during more favorable game scripts over the next two weeks. Henry has averaged 102.0 rushing yards and 1.1 touchdowns during December/January throughout his career, as the Big Dog thrives toward the end of the season. Henry has been a fantasy disappointment lately while not scoring in more than a month, but he can be fully trusted during championship weeks.
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Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
Kupp has taken a clear backseat to Puka Nacua, and he’s coming off a goose egg during the first week of the fantasy playoffs. In Kupp’s defense, both teams struggled badly passing during a game with rain that combined for zero touchdowns. Kupp was wide open for a 59-yard TD had Matthew Stafford looked his way, but Kupp is now the WR57 over the last three weeks.
Kupp is clearly not the same player he once was, and Nacua has emerged as a true No. 1, but he’ll remain an integral part of a productive passing offense. The Jets have allowed the third-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers over the last five weeks, and New York ranks 29th in EPA/dropback allowed since Week 9. Moreover, the Jets have ceded the most fantasy points to the slot, where Kupp has run 62% of his routes this season. Kupp’s level of trust has fallen to mid-WR2 range, but he has an intriguing matchup to bounce back this week.
Malik Nabers, New York Giants
Nabers is the only player on this list not coming off a quiet game, but other concerns out of his control remain. He surpassed a 40% target share last week for the fourth time this season, while no other wideout has done it more than twice. It also marked Nabers’ eighth game he’s seen a 40%+ first-read target share. The rookie WR has seen 37 targets over the last three weeks, so volume hasn’t been a problem. Quarterback, however, has been a major issue.
Tommy DeVito eats too many sacks and has an extremely low aDOT, but Tim Boyle immediately started targeting Nabers downfield after he took over after halftime last week. Boyle also targeted Nabers twice inside the five-yard line — his first two looks there since Week 3, which was the last time Nabers hit pay dirt. The TD toss also marked the Giants’ first passing score since November 3. Nabers also drew 34 yards in defensive pass interference penalties, so his fantasy value has life if DeVito remains on the sideline.
Moreover, Nabers’ role changed last week, as he saw season highs in routes, targets, catches, yards and TDs from the slot, where he absolutely dominated in college. The Falcons have been gashed for the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers over the last five weeks (and they just got to face Desmond Ridder), so he gets a favorable matchup indoors Sunday (even with A.J. Terrell shadowing him). The Giants have a lowly 16-point implied team total, so Nabers’ ceiling is limited. But volume, a new role and a possible QB upgrade make Nabers a trustworthy top-15 WR this week.
Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins
Hill has been the WR33 this season, as fantasy managers keep waiting for an eruption yet to come. Hill is playing through a wrist injury that will likely require offseason surgery, and a decimated Dolphins’ offensive line has led to Tua Tagovailoa throwing an NFL-high 25% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage. Tight end Jonnu Smith leads Miami in targets since Week 5. Hill has negative fantasy points over expected for the first time ever.
However, Hill’s fantasy value gets a boost should Jaylen Waddle’s knee injury cost him the next couple of games. Hill has averaged 12.0 targets. 105.0 receiving yards, 0.7 TDs and 18.2 fantasy points (would be the WR2 this year) during games Waddle has missed since joining the Dolphins. Hill is coming off a dud, but he can be trusted as a top-10 WR this week assuming Waddle sits.
DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
Metcalf has struggled while playing through a shoulder injury, and he’s been fantasy’s WR56 over five games since returning. He has a 20.4% target share compared to 24.8% for Jaxon Smith-Njigba over that span. While JSN saw a 50%(!) first-read target share last week, Metcalf saw the fewest targets (three) in a game he didn’t leave injured since his rookie season.
Metcalf would lose all fantasy trust should Sam Howell start this week, but Mike MacDonald is optimistic Geno Smith will be able to return Sunday. Furthermore, the Vikings have yielded the second-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers over the last five weeks, so Metcalf has a favorable matchup. Still, fantasy managers can only trust Metcalf as a WR3 at this point, and he needs to be benched if we get Howell (who finished with a -33.2% CPOE in the first percentile last week).