We have a new favorite to win the College Football Playoff after the first round.
No. 5 seed Texas is +300 to win it all at BetMGM after its 38-24 win over No. 12 Clemson on Saturday. The Longhorns have the shortest odds of anyone to win the national title entering the quarterfinals as Texas enters its Peach Bowl matchup with No. 4 Arizona State as a 13.5-point favorite.
No. 1 seed Oregon is the No. 2 favorite to win it all but is actually a slight underdog in its quarterfinal game. The Ducks are 1.5-point underdogs to No. 8 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. The Buckeyes dominated No. 9 Tennessee on Saturday night to earn a rematch with the Ducks and are the No. 3 favorite for the national title at +400.
Based on the odds, there are six clear contenders and Arizona State and Boise State. Those two teams have odds to win the national title of +5000. Everyone else is at +500 or better. Is that a case of big name bias? Or are Arizona State and Boise State clearly the two worst teams remaining in the field?
We’ll find out starting Dec. 31. Here are the title odds for each of the eight remaining teams along with an early look at the lines and totals for each of the four quarterfinal matchups.
-
Texas (+300)
-
Oregon (+350)
-
Ohio State (+400)
-
Penn State (+450)
-
Georgia (+500)
-
Notre Dame (+500)
-
Arizona State (+5000)
-
Boise State (+5000)
Fiesta Bowl
No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 Boise State
Date: Dec. 31| Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | TV: ESPN | Line: Penn State -10.5 | Total: 52.5
The Nittany Lions blew out SMU on Saturday thanks to two pick-6s in the first half. SMU had a nightmare start to its first College Football Playoff appearance and was out of the game at halftime. Penn State’s defense bounced back in a big way after Oregon sliced and diced it in the Big Ten title game. Boise State is the Mountain West champion and has the nation’s best running back in Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty. He could set the FBS single-season rushing record in the Fiesta Bowl.
Peach Bowl
No. 5 Texas vs. No. 4 Arizona State
Date: Jan. 1 | Time: 1 p.m. ET | TV: ESPN | Line: Texas -13.5 | Total: 52.5
This game has the biggest line of any of the four quarterfinals as Texas takes on the champion of its former conference. This isn’t a familiar matchup, however, since ASU won the Big 12 in its first season in the conference. The Longhorns will need to stop bowling ball RB Cam Skattebo. He rushed over and through Iowa State in the Big 12 title game. Texas, meanwhile, attacked the edges of Clemson’s run defense to great effect on Saturday night as the Tigers couldn’t slow down the Longhorns’ run game.
Rose Bowl
No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Oregon
Date: Jan. 1 | Time: 5 p.m. ET | TV: ESPN | Line: Ohio State -1.5 | Total 53.5
If the first game between the two teams was any indication, this should be the best game of the quarterfinals. Oregon beat Ohio State 32-31 at home after Will Howard’s slide came just a little too late for a game-winning field goal attempt. Howard played extremely well Saturday night against Tennessee and had two fantastic TD passes to Jeremiah Smith. Oregon threw for 341 yards on Ohio State in that game. No one else has thrown for more than 201 yards on the Buckeyes all season.
Sugar Bowl
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia
Date: Jan. 1 | Time: 8:45 p.m. ET | TV: ESPN | Line: Georgia -1.5 | total: 44.5
Gunner Stockton looks set to start for the Bulldogs because of the elbow injury Carson Beck sustained in the SEC title game. Points appear to be at a premium; the total in the Sugar Bowl is eight points lower than any other quarterfinal game. Georgia had thrown the ball more than it ran it with Beck under center this year. We expect that to change with Stockton. Notre Dame’s running attack is one of the best in college football as Jeremiyah Love showed with his 98-yard TD run against Indiana on Friday night.